Schimpf gradually breaking slump with homers

SAN DIEGO -- Ryan Schimpf plays baseball in extremes. The Padres third baseman currently ranks in the top 10 in the Majors in strikeout rate, walk rate and fly-ball rate.
And when Schimpf gets into a fly ball, it tends to leave the yard. He went deep in his third straight game Friday night, as the Padres dropped their series opener in San Francisco, 4-3.
Schimpf has broken out of his 1-for-28 slump rather emphatically with the first three-game home run streak of his career. Afterward, he attributed his recent success to a minor mechanical tweak.
"I made a couple adjustments, and I've been feeling good the past couple days, tweaked a couple things here and there," Schimpf said. "Nothing major, just trying to get back to doing some things I used to. Getting more of my legs and trying to keep it simple, really, keep the head still."
Still, nearly a month into the season, Schimpf is batting just .132. He has nine hits this season -- and six of them have left the yard.
"He just hasn't found a hole at all when he's put a ball in play," said Padres manager Andy Green. "At some point in time, a ball falls in. Right now the only thing that's falling in for him is when the ball leaves the yard."
Schimpf's bad luck on balls in play is reaching historic proportions. His .083 BABIP -- essentially a player's batting average, without counting strikeouts and the home runs -- is the lowest single-season mark ever among position players with as many as Schimpf's 85 plate appearances.
Historically, poor numbers on balls in play tend to normalize. In that regard, it's a safe bet that a few of Schimpf's bloops begin to fall. To his credit, Schimpf is keeping his focus on the process and not the results.
"I had a rough stretch early on, but I don't think you can go about trying to chase an average," Schimpf said. "... Put together a good at-bat, get your game plan, put your best swing on it. Whatever happens after that, it's out of your control."
But there's also reason to be skeptical of Schimpf approaching anything close to the league average on balls in play. According to Statcast™, Schimpf's average exit velocity this season is only 82 mph, down 8.3 from last season.
Schimpf is one of the game's premier fly-ball hitters (second only to Trevor Story in fly-ball rate this year). Batters who hit the ball softly in the air tend to hit into outs. And Schimpf has done that all too frequently this year.
"Part of it is fly-ball rate, part of it is that he hasn't had hard contact, so that's on him as well," said Green. "But he's not going to hit balls that softly all year. He's going to start driving his doubles."
Green was quick to note that there's plenty Schimpf has done right in the batter's box this season.
"We clearly like the walks and the home runs," said Green. "He's obviously searching for more consistency. He wants to get the average up, but the on-base has always been very good for him, home runs have always been very good for him. One month on the season, he's got six on the year already.
"The average is going to come up. You don't have that batting average on balls in play that he has right now. It's just almost mathematically impossible."
Apparently it's not impossible. But it's certainly historically improbable.