Who will take control of wide-open AL Cy Young race after Skubal's injury?

Over the past two seasons, the American League Cy Young Award race hasn’t been much of a competition. But that’s about to change.

Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who won each of the past two AL Cy Youngs and put himself in strong contention for a third straight over the first month of 2026, needs surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow.

Skubal’s injury has thrust the AL Cy Young picture into a state of uncertainty for the first time in a while. With last year’s second-, third- and sixth-place finishers -- Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown and Carlos Rodón, respectively -- also on the IL and fifth-place finisher Bryan Woo sporting a 4.61 ERA, a wide-open scramble for the award is about to unfold.

The focus is now on five pitchers in particular: the Yankees' Cam Schlittler, the Angels' José Soriano, the Blue Jays' Dylan Cease, the Yankees' Max Fried and the Rangers' Jacob deGrom.

Here are some of the questions that could define the race in the months ahead, along with some of the other pitchers to watch.

All stats below are through Monday.

Will Schlittler hit a wall as the innings pile up?

After an impressive rookie year that included a historic start (8 IP, 0 R, 12 K’s) against the Red Sox in Game 3 of the AL Wild Card Series, Schlittler has taken his game to another level in 2026. He leads the AL in ERA (1.52) and WHIP (0.87) and MLB in FIP (1.75) through eight starts, striking out 53 batters with nine walks over 47 1/3 innings.

What remains to be seen, however, is how Schlittler will hold up down the stretch -- he’s on pace for nearly 220 innings, which would shatter the career high of 149 2/3 he set last year between the Minors and Majors. If he can pull it off, he'd become just the sixth pitcher to win a Cy Young before his third MLB season, joining Paul Skenes (2025), Tim Lincecum ('08), Dwight Gooden (1985), Bret Saberhagen ('85) and Fernando Valenzuela ('85).

Is Soriano coming back down to earth?

The AL’s Pitcher of the Month for March/April, Soriano was virtually untouchable over his first six starts this season. The Angels right-hander allowed just one run over 37 2/3 innings, and his 0.24 ERA was the lowest in a pitcher's first six starts of a season since earned runs became official in both leagues (1913). However, he has run into some trouble over his past two starts, allowing four homers and yielding eight runs in nine innings.

Soriano throws hard and has dominated with his splitter and knuckle curve this year, but further regression may be coming. He entered this season with a lifetime 3.91 ERA as a starting pitcher, and both his FIP (3.44) and expected ERA (3.89) are significantly higher than his current 1.74 ERA.

Cease has elite stuff, but can he stay consistent?

So far this season, Cease has shown exactly why the Blue Jays spent $210 million to reel him in as a free agent even after he finished two of the past three seasons with an ERA+ below league average. While Toronto’s rotation has been decimated by injuries, Cease has delivered a 3.05 ERA through seven starts, leading AL qualifiers in both whiff rate (36.9%) and strikeout rate (33.7%).

Cease, though, is still issuing a lot of free passes, something that has contributed to his inconsistency in the past. He clearly has a Cy Young ceiling, earning a second-place finish in 2022 and a fourth-place nod in ’24. But his floor is a bit lower than that of the typical frontline arm.

Can Fried win a Cy without gaudy strikeout numbers?

Fried is basically the opposite of Cease. The veteran left-hander doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he’s perhaps baseball’s most consistent starting pitcher, recording the best ERA+ (151) of anyone to make at least 100 starts since the beginning of 2020 -- including a 2.76 ERA with a 151 ERA+ over 40 starts in a Yankees uniform. He also has the best xERA of any AL pitcher with at least 100 batters faced this season at 2.32.

But while Fried has finished among the top five in his league’s Cy Young voting three times, he may have to defy recent precedent to actually win. Of the 34 Cy Young winners across 2009-25, only one -- Rick Porcello in 2016 -- didn’t either reach the 200-strikeout plateau or strike out more than a batter per inning. With an average of 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 2026, Fried is going to have a tough time getting to 200.

Can deGrom reach the 30-start plateau again?

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention deGrom. After all, he’s already won two Cy Youngs and has looked like his vintage self this season, recording a 2.01 ERA with 40 strikeouts and seven walks over 31 1/3 innings. Watching a 37-year-old deGrom turn back the clock to battle the AL's young aces all season would be compelling theater on its own, but such a race would also carry broader implications. Right now, deGrom’s lack of volume due to injuries gives him a borderline Hall of Fame case despite his incredible peak, but a third Cy Young could cement his place in Cooperstown.

As usual, health is the biggest question with deGrom. After missing most of 2023 and ’24 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, deGrom returned to make 30 starts for the Rangers last season. He’s done that in consecutive seasons only once before -- when he won back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards in 2018-19. If he does it again, history suggests he's going to be in the Cy Young mix.

Who are some other names to watch?

While Schlittler, Soriano, Cease, Fried and deGrom are the primary competitors for the AL Cy Young Award right now, there are plenty of others who could move up the ranks over the next few months.

Among proven pitchers who received Cy Young votes in the past three years, the Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman, the Mariners’ George Kirby, the Tigers’ Framber Valdez, the Royals’ Seth Lugo and the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen are off to strong starts.

Davis Martin of the White Sox, Will Warren of the Yankees, Parker Messick of the Guardians and Emerson Hancock of the Mariners are among the upstarts worth keeping an eye on.

We also can’t forget Cleveland’s Gavin Williams. Over the past calendar year, the only qualifiers with a lower ERA than Williams’ 2.61 are Skenes (2.01), Skubal (2.32) and the Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez (2.43). Williams owns a 2.70 ERA with a 31% strikeout rate -- up 6.4 percentage points from 2025 -- through seven starts in '26.