Freak-Out Factor: Who should be nervous right now?

Is it too early in the MLB season to freak out?

Never!

Let’s delve into some troubling trends from the first two weeks of games and apply our patented, world-renowned Freak-Out Factor formula to determine the level of concern on a scale of 0 to 10 – 0 calling for calm, 10 permitting panic.

The Jays are frayed in the rotation!
FOF: 5, or how many would-be starting options are currently on the shelf

Between rookie postseason hero Trey Yesavage’s right shoulder impingement, Shane Bieber’s continued right elbow issues, Cody Ponce’s season-ending right knee injury and right elbow problems for both Bowden Francis (also out for the season) and José Berríos, Toronto’s rotation picture is a shell of what it was designed to be. Max Scherzer also came out of a start this week with right elbow tendinitis, and it’s a given that his 41-year-old body will go through some stuff this season. Meanwhile, catcher Alejandro Kirk’s absence with a fractured left thumb also affects the pitching staff.

If you had to pick one prevailing reason why 15 AL or NL pennant winners in the Wild Card era (since 1995) haven’t reached the playoffs the following season, it’s often the injury price paid for a sustained October run. Though they have plenty of time to pick up the pieces, the Blue Jays, who used 18 pitchers just in the first 10 games of the season, have a little of that going on right now. There’s also a run of bad luck. If they had one area on the roster where they looked a little light going into the season, it was the bullpen, so any absence of quality arms in the rotation can leave them looking particularly vulnerable, especially in the unforgiving AL East.

Toronto signed veteran innings-eater Patrick Corbin as a potential stopgap while Bieber, Yesavage and Berríos work their way back. So we’ll tame the Toronto freak-out for now.

The Tigers aren’t roaring!
FOF: 7, or months until Tarik Skubal is due to reach free agency

It’s way too early for the Tigers’ troubles to start the drumbeat for a Skubal swap, but you’d better believe that conversation will be looming if the slow start makes its way into May. That’s why Detroit needs to turn this around quickly.

A gruesome start had an accompanying picture when center fielder Parker Meadows was involved in an ugly collision this week that left him with blood trickling out of his mouth. Still, the Tigers look like they have a bona fide stud at shortstop in rookie Kevin McGonigle, and Skubal fronts a pitching staff that ought to be one of the best in MLB over the course of the season. And after a heavy dose of road dates early, the Tigers should benefit from more home cooking moving forward.

But the front office, led by Scott Harris, doesn’t give off vibes that it would just ride it out with Skubal if the midseason standings aren’t screaming that this is a World Series contender. So again, the faster the Tigers put it together, the better, lest the trade chatter take on a life of its own.

Tony Vitello is under scrutiny!
FOF: 2, or how many “clubhouse incidents” the Giants’ rookie manager revealed to reporters

Few things are more fascinating in baseball discourse right now than the Tony Vitello experience. He’s a former Tennessee Volunteer who volunteers information … like telling reporters there were a couple of incidents in the clubhouse that we didn’t know about.

Vitello wears his heart on his sleeve, goes off on tangents and is entertaining and engaging. That doesn’t necessarily go along well with the grind of 162 games, compared with what he’s used to in college, but as a reporter? I like it, I love it, I want some more of it. And Vitello’s honesty and his ability to relate with people are a big reason why he made it to this point in the first place.

Has Vitello shown his inexperience? Yes, definitely, with his use of the bench (or lack thereof) and some strange moves in the bullpen (though, in his defense, he doesn’t have much of one to begin with). But it’s way too soon to suggest that he’s in over his head or that his style can’t work in the big leagues, and it’s unfair to ask or expect him to be your typical modern, closed-lipped skipper.

The Red Sox have struggled!
FOF: 8.64, or Ranger Suarez’s ERA

Suarez was not the only issue for a Boston team that started out 2-8 -- before back-to-back wins over the Brewers on Tuesday and Wednesday -- though plenty of people in the industry were puzzled by the mammoth five-year, $130 million commitment the Red Sox made to a guy who relies on guile and chase.

And frankly, there have been plenty of puzzling moves by the Craig Breslow-led front office, most notably last summer’s salary dump of Rafael Devers. Lefty Kyle Harrison was a key piece acquired in that trade, and sure enough, he’s had early success for the Brewers after Boston shipped him off in the trade for Caleb Durbin … who has struggled so far in his role as the third-base replacement for Alex Bregman … whose presence on the roster was seen as a reason to dump Devers but who has since bolted in free agency.

You got all that? Overall, it’s not good enough in Boston, where the pressure is always on and the lineup lacks an established aircraft carrier-type.

Roman Anthony can be that, but it’s asking a lot of him to be that right away. The Red Sox also ask a lot of their ace, Garrett Crochet. And while I’m bullish on Anthony and Marcelo Mayer and Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran and a lot of other pieces on this roster, I do think there should be more certainty baked into a ballclub with as many resources as the Red Sox possess.

Cade Horton’s hurt!
FOF: 7 1/3, or innings the Cubs got from him this season

Horton had a legit argument for NL Rookie of the Year last season after he posted an adjusted ERA+ that was 43% better than league average in 118 innings . (He ultimately finished second to Braves catcher Drake Baldwin.) Removing him from the Cubs’ rotation after an April 3 right elbow injury that required season-ending surgery is a damaging blow to a Chicago team that added some juice to its rotation in the form of Edward Cabrera but nevertheless has depth questions. The Cubs are also being tested early by a left biceps issue for 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd.

Cabrera went from a big X-factor to a gigantic one now. He’s off to a truly fantastic start, with a spotless ERA in 11 2/3 innings in which he’s struck out nine and allowed two hits and six walks, entering Saturday’s start against Pittsburgh. The walks are a small window into the control problems that prevented Cabrera from reaching his ceiling with the Marlins, though the bigger issue has been his history of injury troubles. Needless to say, the Cubs need him to stay healthy all the more now that Horton is out of the picture.

Though Justin Steele is expected back from UCL surgery in the first half, the Cubs have all the makings of a club that will need some external help between now and the Trade Deadline to be a viable World Series contender. And because that’s hard to do, our scale is freaking out about them a little bit.

The Mariners are meh!
FOF: 3, or the number of times they’ve been shut out

Seattle’s early struggles were not difficult to diagnose. The M’s have had no O. They entered Friday last in MLB in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And while Cole Young and offseason acquisition Brendan Donovan were early highlights, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor combined to hit .130 with one homer, 45 strikeouts and 16 walks.

And of course, it didn’t help that Jo Adell single-handedly robbed the Mariners of three home runs in one game.

This lineup is too good for this to continue. Though I will note that the strikeout rate, which declined last season as Seattle surged to the ALCS, is back up again, the Mariners also entered the weekend with a .238 batting average on balls in play at a time when the league average is .288. That indicates there’s some bad luck going on here.

For now, I refuse to believe that Raleigh refusing to shake Randy Arozarena’s hand in the World Baseball Classic or me picking the Mariners to win the World Series has permanently jinxed this 2026 team. It’s a disturbingly plausible theory … but too early to validate.