Tigers-Mariners position-by-position breakdown

Back on July 11, you might have been able to guess the Tigers and Mariners would cross each other’s paths come October. But you would have been very hard-pressed to guess it would look like this.

The two clubs met in Motown that day for the start of a three-game series. The Tigers had the best record in MLB, while the Mariners were sitting three games over .500, a game out of a Wild Card spot. The Tigers had made good on their shocking surge to the postseason last year and shown themselves to be an elite club, while the Mariners were still searching for their identity in many ways.

Now, the two clubs meet in the American League Division Series -- beginning Saturday afternoon at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park -- under much different circumstances.

From the time they swept the Tigers in that July series to the end of the regular season, the Mariners won games at a .609 clip -- tied for the third-best winning percentage in MLB in that span.

For the Tigers, on the other hand, that series marked the beginning of a freefall in which they’d go 28-40 the rest of the way and lose their grip on what had been a 15 1/2-game lead in the AL Central -- a historic collapse.

So the Mariners have the upper-hand here, having scorched their way to their first AL West title since 2001 and earned the AL’s No. 2 seed and the first-round bye that came with it. And the Tigers enter this series thrilled to have survived an exhausting Wild Card Series against the Guardians team that shockingly ran them down in the regular season.

Maybe the Tigers’ newfound momentum -- combined with some Seattle rust -- allows them to flip the script, not unlike what the M’s did back in early July.

Or maybe the Mariners make good on the advantage they’ve built for themselves.

Before we find out for sure, let’s take a look at these squads, position by position, to see who has the on-paper edge.

Catcher

Well, you probably know where we’re headed with this one.

Cal Raleigh was Babe Ruth wrapped in catcher’s gear this year. We had never seen anything quite like it. It’s not just that he hit 60 dingers while catching; it’s that he did it while catching more innings (1,072) than anyone else in the AL and ranking in the 87^th percentile in fielding run value. If anyone deserved five days off before the Division Series, it was this dude.

Raleigh obviously has the edge here, but Dillon Dingler’s importance to the Tigers is not to be overlooked. In his first full season, he had a strong offensive showing (108 OPS+) in a demanding position, and he, too, fields his position very well and has the trust of his staff. It was his solo homer in the Wild Card Series Game 3 clincher that opened the floodgates for the Tigers’ offense.

Advantage: Mariners

First base

Josh Naylor filled a huge need for the Mariners at the Trade Deadline, bringing his solid combo of low strikeouts (13.7% K rate) and power (.490 slugging percentage) to their lineup from the left-hand side. What they couldn’t have possibly expected was that the 5-foot-10, 235-pound Naylor would also swipe 19 bags in only 54 games in their uniform. Having reached the postseason three previous times with Cleveland, Naylor is no stranger to this stage.

Spencer Torkelson’s postseason is not off to a great start (2-for-11 with five K’s), and his .739 OPS in the second half was a step down from what he produced in the first half (.826), which is why we’ll go with Naylor here. Still, Torkelson is a pivotal player for the Tigers whose resurgence in the “Tork Bombs” department this season helped them reach October.

Advantage: Mariners

Second base

The Mariners have primarily used a timeshare of Cole Young and veteran Jorge Polanco at second base, with the latter seeing the bulk of his time at designated hitter. But the rookie Young slashed just .211/.302/.305 this season, while Polanco’s bounceback age-31 season, in which he slashed .265/.326/.495 with 26 homers and 30 doubles, was a huge reason the M’s were able to win the West. Polanco nursed knee and side issues earlier this year, and Young got a long look. But you can expect to see Polanco as the primary guy at the keystone in the playoffs, and he’s our guy here.

The Tigers hope to get Gleyber Torres going at the plate after he went 2-for-13 in the Wild Card round. He was an igniter for the Yankees in their run to the AL pennant last year, and his 108 OPS+ in 2025 made him a nice offseason signing for the Tigers. But he hasn’t been as productive since the break.

Advantage: Mariners

Shortstop

Javier Báez’s return to the October stage has been a success so far, as he banged out five hits, including a double, in the Wild Card round. But that small sample aside, this is a spot where the Tigers have struggled to maintain offensive traction this season, so we’ll see if Javy can keep it going in the ALDS round.

Though not a superstar of the ilk of Julio Rodríguez or Raleigh, J.P. Crawford has long occupied a special place as a leader for this Mariners team. And after battling injuries and putting up a sub-standard .625 OPS in 2024, he bounced back this year with a .265/.352/.370 slash. His good eye at the plate is an asset.

Advantage: Mariners

Third base

After trading Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks after the 2023 season, the Mariners brought him back at the Trade Deadline this year in a go-for-it move for a guy in the midst of a monster offensive season. Unfortunately, the 33-year-old Suárez was nowhere near as productive for Seattle (.189/.355/.428 slash) as he had been for Arizona (.248/.320/.567), but he did go deep 13 times in 53 games and he’s always a major threat to change a game with a single swing. His bat was instrumental the last time the M’s won a postseason series, against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round in 2022.

Whether it was Zach McKinstry or backup Andy Ibáñez, the Tigers went hitless at the hot corner in the opening round. Their rotating cast here combined to post a minus-0.1 Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement mark.

Advantage: Mariners

Left field

It says here that the Mariners’ left fielder had a .760 OPS and 119 OPS+ with 27 homers and 32 doubles this season. That’s a good season. An All-Star season. Except… wait a minute? That left fielder is Randy Arozarena? The guy with a .349 average, 1.138 OPS, 11 homers, five doubles and a triple in 28 postseason games going back to 2020? Fun fact: The only players with a higher postseason OPS in at least 100 plate appearances are Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth (both 1.214).

That’s a wild October track record. But the Tigers’ Riley Greene, who has slugged .487 over the last two seasons (best among left fielders) and also gotten on base at a .330 clip in that span, deserves some love here. Greene did strike out in 30% of his plate appearances this season (leading to an unusual situation in the Wild Card Series in which A.J. Hinch pinch-hit for him), but he’s the Tigers’ best hitter.

Advantage: Tigers

Center field

Though Raleigh dominated the national conversation, Julio Rodríguez is coming off a strong season (128 OPS+, or 28% better than league average) but, more pointedly, a fantastic second half, which has become the norm for him in his career. Julio slashed .290/.341/.560 with 18 homers and 14 doubles in 65 games after the break, so the magnetic star could be a handful in October.

The Tigers are hoping Parker Meadows can get on a roll at the plate like he did in last year’s second-half surge. Meadows has battled multiple injured list stints this season. He put up a .621 OPS in 58 regular season games. But he was beginning to provide more impact down the stretch, and he had three hits and a walk in the Wild Card round, so perhaps he’ll lock in.

Advantage: Mariners

Right field

Victor Robles was a real sparkplug for the Mariners in 2024, when he was signed midseason and brought his great glove and some surprising pop to their mix. This year, he suffered a bad shoulder injury in early April and did not return to the club until late August. He’s looked rather rusty since his return (.279 OBP), but we’ll see if he can spark them again.

Wenceel Pérez’s only hit in the Wild Card Series was an impactful one, driving in two runs on a single to break Game 3 open. The switch-hitter provided good offense (104 OPS+) and more power than anticipated (.430 SLG) to this club, and his defense is an asset.

Advantage: Tigers

Designated hitter

These are basically designated platoons.

The Mariners will likely employ either the left-handed Dominic Canzone (.840 OPS, 142 OPS+) or the right-handed Mitch Garver (.639, 86) based on pitcher handedness. Likewise, the Tigers have the left-hand-hitting Kerry Carpenter (.788, 114) and the right-handed Jahmai Jones (.937, 157). Carpenter made his presence known in the Wild Card Series with four hits, including a double, and Canzone had a terrific September (1.048 OPS).

The Mariners haven’t gotten as much production here from the right-hand side. That’s possibly a notable factor with the Mariners facing Skubal in Game 2.

Advantage: Tigers

Starting pitching

Primarily because of issues on the road vs. at notoriously pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, the Mariners’ rotation wasn’t as good this year as it was last year. But it’s still a group you have to feel great about taking into a postseason series.

It will be interesting to see where, when (or as of this writing, if) they slot in their best arm from 2025, Bryan Woo (2.94 ERA, 128 ERA+). He dealt with a pectoral issue at season’s end after a tremendous year in which he made 20 starts of at least five innings while allowing two earned runs or fewer. George Kirby (4.21, 90) and Luis Castillo (3.54, 107) will start Games 1 and 2, respectively, with Logan Gilbert (3.44, 110) and perhaps Woo available for Games 3 and 4 in Detroit. All are capable of commanding the moment.

Again, a very good group.

But there’s only one Tarik Skubal, who will likely win his second consecutive Cy Young this year and just turned in one of the strongest starts of his elite career (7 2/3 innings, one earned run, 14 strikeouts) against the Guardians.

If you want to argue that the Mariners run deeper/better in the rotation than the Tigers, who are short-handed for Game 1 after using Casey Mize (3.87 ERA, 107 ERA+) in Game 2 and Jack Flaherty (4.64, 89) in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, you are well within your right.

But there’s no denying that the Tigers’ ability to potentially use Skubal twice on full rest in five games, if this ALDS goes that long, is a big plus for them.

Advantage: Tigers

Relief pitching

The Mariners bullpen appears to be in a really good spot, especially with the rest afforded by the late-season run to the AL’s No. 2 seed. All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz notched a career-high 38 saves with a 1.73 ERA, and Matt Brash (2.47 ERA, 154 ERA+) sets him up well. Eduard Bazardo (2.52, 150) and lefty Gabe Speier (2.61, 145) are also effective weapons for manager Dan Wilson to deploy.

Tigers skipper A.J. Hinch seemingly has more hurdles to navigate after utilizing his relievers for 10 2/3 innings of the Wild Card Series and generally not having as wide a circle of trust in the ‘pen as he did a year ago at this time. It’s former Mariner Will Vest (3.01 ERA, 138 ERA+) closing it out, with Brant Hurter (2.43, 171) and lefty Tyler Holton (3.66, 113) in prominent setup roles and midseason trade acquisition Kyle Finnegan (1.50, 281 in 18 regular season innings with the Tigers) used just about anywhere. The Tigers are very dependent on getting length from Skubal in his start(s) to reduce exposure to the ‘pen.

Advantage: Mariners

Prediction

Despite their late-season collapse, we felt really good about the Tigers’ chances in the Wild Card round because of the Skubal factor. And there’s no doubt he’ll be a huge factor in this ALDS, as well.

But between Skubal not being fully rested and ready for Game 1, the Tigers’ lumber generally laboring of late (save, of course, for those breakaway late innings in the Wild Card Series clincher), the Mariners having perhaps a more distinct home-field edge than usual with the Tigers’ long travel, and, as you see above, the argument that the Mariners have an on-paper advantage at the majority of spots, this feels like Seattle’s series to lose.

Let’s go with the Mariners in four.

But if it gets to a Game 5, and the ball is in Skubal’s hands… uh oh.