Daily fantasy picks, values for Aug. 19
A version of this article originally appeared on DraftKings. For more betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.
There’s morning baseball for those of us on the right coast! Unfortunately, that means the main slate is a small one today with only four games. The Minnesota Twins (4.1) visit the New York Yankees (6.5), the Miami Marlins (3.1) travel to the Cincinnati Reds (5), the Milwaukee Brewers (4.7) play at the St. Louis Cardinals (3.4) and the New York Mets (3.8) are at the Los Angeles Dodgers (5.3). Weather doesn’t look to be a factor anywhere, so let’s dig in and see what plays we can isolate.
PITCHER
Stud
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins ($8,500) — It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Castillo. His first 10 starts to open the season resulted in a 7.61 ERA, 8.56 K/9 and 1.52 HR/9. There was bad luck as the BABIP was .382 and the FIP was 4.8. Over the next 13 starts, the ERA was 2.02, the strikeout rate ticked up to 9.3 while the HR/9 plummeted to 0.56. That said, the luck pendulum swung the other way as the BABIP was .261 and the FIP was 3.33. Baseball, man. In his two most recent starts, he’s allowed three and eight earned runs, so are we headed back down on the ride? It wouldn’t shock me and if the projected ownership levels get too high, then I will be inclined to fade and stack against him. As it stands now, though, I just like the matchup too much. The Marlins are sixth in strikeouts and 27th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Brandon Woodruff ($10,200)
Value
Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins ($6,300) — It’s a four-game slate so there aren’t many options for value. The Dodgers will have a bullpen game while John Gant ($6,100) and Jon Lester ($5,700) are not for me. That leaves the third J, and I guess it makes sense because he’d be first alphabetically. I know, I’m stretching here. Let’s dig into the numbers. The swinging-strike rate is a respectable 11.9% and the K/9 is 8.85. The FIP is 4.23 so he’s no world-beater by any means but he has produced double-digit DKFP in seven of the last eight games with three above 20 and a high of 32.8. The Twins don’t strike out that much and are top 10 in ISO against right-handed pitching, but Taillon is the best of the worst options today.
Other Option: None
CATCHER
Stud
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets ($5,300) — Most of the pitchers on this slate do a good job of suppressing the long ball, especially those down in the price range. Taijuan Walker ($7,100), though, has reverse splits and is much more effective against lefties than righties. He only allows 0.88 HR/9 to lefties but 1.62 to righties. Smith mashes righties and has a .286 ISO against them. 1+1=2.
Other Option: None
Value
Manny Pina, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals ($3,400) — If you haven’t received the memo, Jon Lester ($5,700) has trouble against righties. The K/9 is sub-6 while he’s walking 4.1 per nine innings. The FIP is 5.94 and he’s allowed 1.85 HR/9. Pina's batting average is below .200, but he only strikes out 13.4% of the time against left-handed pitching and has a .228 ISO against them.
Other Option: None
FIRST BASE
Stud
Eduardo Escobar, Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals ($5,600) — I guess we are stacking against Lester today. What could go wrong? I just went over Lester’s numbers above in the Pina section. Escobar bats third in the order and has a .225 ISO against left-handed pitching while only striking out 14.3% of the time. The slash is .279/.328/.505.
Other Option: None
Value
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins ($3,700) — I don’t like the value options at first base on this slate and was tempted to just leave this section blank. Against right-handed pitching, Rizzo has a .217/.323/.415 slash. Against lefties, it’s .337/.419/.554. The ISO is still .198 against righties, though, and he faces John Gant ($6,100) who has a 5.75 FIP against lefties and the HR/9 is 1.18 compared to 0.39 to righties. Once he’s out of the game, the Twins bullpen has the 10th-highest FIP.
Other Option: None
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