The 2026 World Baseball Classic champion will be ...

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We are almost here: The World Baseball Classic is about to begin! We’ve been churning out tons of stories, so make sure you head to WorldBaseballClassic.com, where we have previews, player features and enough stories to fill up every minute until the tourney starts. And the next time this newsletter hits your inbox, we’ll know if Japan was able to repeat, if USA took back the trophy, if the D.R. repeated its undefeated performance from 2013 or if we had a brand new winner.

You can fill out your own bracket here, but here are my picks for the pools and my eventual champion:

Pool A (San Juan)

Canada, Puerto Rico

This may be the most balanced of pools with little separating all five teams – think of it like 2023’s Taiwan pool that saw the whole group finish tied at 2-2. I think Canada, which has never advanced beyond the first round, will take the crown in this one. I’m really impressed by the level of depth and talent they have all around the field and in the rotation.

For second place, I was debating between Puerto Rico and Colombia, which were very impressive in the Tucson Qualifier. While Puerto Rico’s roster isn’t as strong as in recent years with players like Francisco Lindor missing with injury, there is still plenty of talent. Playing in front of the home crowd gives them the edge.

Pool B (Houston)

USA, Mexico

Given the way the USA has stacked its lineup and rotation this time around – even if Tarik Skubal only pitches once in the tournament, these are still the best arms that the United States have ever brought – it would be a major letdown if the team fails to advance. They’re going to take the pool, but I expect a few of the contests to be a lot closer than many American fans are hoping for. That's not a knock against Team USA, but more a statement of how strong every team is this year.

The battle for second is down to Mexico, Italy and Great Britain. With Mexico playing Italy on the final day of the pool and after blowing two ninth-inning leads to the Azzuri in 2013 and ‘17, I think Mexico gets its revenge and moves on.

Pool C (Tokyo)

Japan, Chinese Taipei

Japan’s roster isn’t quite as strong as in 2023: Shohei Ohtani isn’t pitching, Roki Sasaki is out, and assuming that Seiya Suzuki is going to play center field – a position he’s only lined up at once in the Majors – the defense has taken a hit, too. However, the lineup may be even stronger this time around with Suzuki back after injury caused him to miss out and Teruaki Sato and his 45 home runs at third may not even get into the starting lineup with Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami in the lineup. They advance and it’s not particularly close.

Another tight one, I give Chinese Taipei the edge after its Premier12 upset of Japan. Riding high after the biggest win in team history (and bouncing back from a rough start at the Taipei Qualifier) and with a young and exciting pitching staff, CT narrowly edges Australia and Korea. It'll go to Miami, advancing beyond the group stage for the first time since 2013.

Pool D (Miami)

Dominican Republic, Venezuela

Two of my favorites to win the whole thing will start the tournament in Miami and I expect them both to advance. For who finishes first in the pool, just look to who wins the head-to-head matchup between these two. In 2023, it was Venezuela that defeated the D.R., 5-1.

Both clubs have rosters loaded with mashers, have the best pitching staffs they’ve ever brought to the tourney, and could even see each other again in the final.

FINAL: Dominican Republic over Japan

This is probably the fourth or fifth time that I’ve changed my prediction. I’ve had Japan winning it all once again – until someone stops them, they're still the team to beat. I’ve had the U.S. winning it behind a super-powered roster. I’ve even considered Mexico beating Japan in the semis and winning it all or even Venezuela getting to the final. I reserve the right to change my mind every day until the tournament is over.

For now: I’m taking the D.R.’s absolutely stacked lineup and ace Cristopher Sánchez getting past Japan in the final.

Of course, simply by making these predictions, I’m guaranteed to get them very wrong. If that’s the case, Japan goes winless, the United States has an ERA above 5.00, and Czechia wins the whole thing. (Speaking of, my book about them -- "We Sacrifice Everything to Baseball" -- comes out on April 1 and you can get 40 percent off with code 6AS26 from the publisher.)