A 3-way tie for NL Wild Card is in play. Here's how it would shake out

Heading into the final week of the regular season, most of the NL playoff picture is pretty well settled.

• The Dodgers (West), Brewers (Central) and Braves (East) have clinched division titles.

• The Dodgers have a four-game lead on the Braves for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye into the Division Series.

• While none of the Cubs, Padres and Phillies have secured Wild Card berths just yet, the Cubs and Padres both could do so as soon as Tuesday. The Phillies could do so as soon as Wednesday. The only other team that remains in contention is the D-backs, but they are four games behind the Phillies and five behind the Cubs and Padres. Their postseason odds, per FanGraphs, were down to 5.7% as of Monday afternoon.

But not everything is close to being decided. And that’s because of the NL Wild Card standings, which look like this (remaining schedules included):

1. Cubs: 87-69 (.558) -- 3 vs. MIA, 3 at BOS
2. Padres: 87-69 (.558) -- 3 at LAD, 3 vs. AZ
3. Phillies: 86-70 (.551) -- 3 vs. MIL, 3 vs. TB

Who would win a three-way tie for the National League Wild Card?

All three of those teams have six games remaining, and they could easily finish in any order. So even setting aside the possibility of a miracle comeback by the D-backs, there are many potential outcomes, which in turn will decide the matchups in the best-of-three NL Wild Card Series, which will begin next Tuesday.

One of those outcomes is a three-way tie. Theoretically, the Cubs, Padres and Phillies could each finish with anywhere between 87 and 92 wins. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where, let’s say, the Cubs and Padres go 3-3 this week, while the Phillies go 4-2, and all three teams finish 90-72. That’s just one example.

So what would happen then? You can read in full about the postseason tiebreaker rules right here, but the key point is that in ties between three teams …

• If the three clubs do NOT have identical records against one another, AND
• Club 1 has a better record against Clubs 2 and 3, THEN
• Club 1 qualifies

There are more complicated tiebreaker rules for other situations, but fortunately, this one is simple -- relatively speaking.

That’s because the Cubs dominated their season series against both teams. They went 5-1 against the Padres and 6-1 against the Phillies. That means, in a theoretical three-way tie for the three Wild Card spots, the Cubs would earn the No. 4 seed. That, in turn, would give them home-field advantage for each game of the Wild Card Series against the No. 5 seed.

With that settled, this simply turns into a regular, old two-team tie for the final two spots. That comes down to head-to-head record, and here we have another lopsided season series. The Phillies went 6-0 against the Padres, sweeping a pair of three-game series between May 25-June 4.

That leaves us with this arrangement if there's a three-way tie for the NL Wild Card:

• Cubs: No. 4 seed, host Phillies in Wild Card Series
• Phillies: No. 5 seed, play at Cubs in Wild Card Series
• Padres: No. 6 seed, play at No. 3 seed (most likely the Braves) in Wild Card Series

If only two of those three teams end up tied, then it’s relatively simple, as we’ve already noted.

• The Cubs would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies or Padres.
• The Phillies would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Padres.

Now we just have to see how the next six games play out.