Can McLain turn it around after slow 2026 start?

The Reds have been mired in a 6-13 month of May (though things started to tick up this week in Philadelphia) after taking an early lead in the hotly contested NL Central. A struggling offense has been a key culprit, ranking 21st in MLB with 94 wRC+.

The big boppers have not been the problem, with Elly De La Cruz still holding a strong 141 wRC+ and rookie Sal Stewart -- despite slowing significantly in May -- sitting at 132. The larger issue lies in the rest of the lineup, which has mostly been buoyed by unexpectedly impressive runs from JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe.

In particular, the infield around shortstop De La Cruz, first baseman Stewart -- and, occasionally, utility man Spencer Steer at first -- has been a significant disappointment. Key free agent signing Eugenio Suárez struggled before landing on the IL, 2025 Trade Deadline acquisition Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 12 wRC+ and Matt McLain has been a below-average hitter after a torrid Spring Training.

McLain is the biggest head-scratcher here. Twice a first-round pick, out of high school in 2018 (by the D-backs) and UCLA in 2021, he broke out with 16 home runs and an .864 OPS in 89 games as a rookie in 2023. Then, left shoulder surgery took all of 2024 away from the infielder. He returned in 2025 to play 147 games, but he posted just a .643 OPS with a 28.9% strikeout rate.

It seemed possible that lingering effects from the shoulder injury hampered McLain a year ago. That looked especially true as he absolutely dominated 2026 Spring Training, hitting a whopping .509 with seven long balls in 18 games.

Fast forward to today, and we’re still wondering who McLain really is at the plate, as the 26-year-old is hitting .208 with a .652 OPS.

His approach has been better, striking out a career-low 23% of the time with a career-high walk rate at 12%. But he’s not hitting the ball as hard, sporting career-worsts in barrel rate (7.1%), hard-hit rate (35.9%) and average exit velocity (87.8), al three of which are slightly below MLB average. Note: listed Statcast metrics were entering play Wednesday.

With Suárez on a rehab assignment and nearing his return, as well as talented prospect Edwin Arroyo cruising at Triple-A and knocking on the door of a call-up, the Reds may soon have four players vying for three spots between third base, second base and DH.

Can McLain break through that group?

McLain’s work in and around the strike zone has improved across the board. He’s swinging at more strikes, making more contact on strikes and swinging and missing less frequently, with his whiff rate down by almost 5 percentage points. He’s also chasing out of the strike zone less despite seeing fewer pitches in the zone, which would lead to his improved walk rate.

The biggest problem is simply the contact McLain is making when he swings. On top of not hitting the ball hard, he’s also hitting it in the air more than he ever has with a career-high average launch angle at 20 degrees.

Batted balls in the air are usually a good thing, especially in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. He’s largely hitting balls too high too frequently for it to matter, though. McLain is popping up 10.9% of the time this season, compared to 6.4% in 2023.

Furthermore, Balls hit at a launch angle of 35 degrees or higher tend to be automatic outs. This season, McLain is producing those at a career-high 25.8% clip and is hitting .091 with a .121 slugging percentage in such scenarios.

Perhaps it’s a timing issue, as McLain’s swing speed has notably jumped almost two full miles per hour compared to his previous career-high. And perhaps related, McLain has really struggled with the high strike, posting a 31.4% whiff rate in the upper third of the zone, compared with just 8.9% in the middle and bottom thirds. He’s also whiffing on four-seam fastballs more than he ever has before.

The incredible Spring performance earned McLain starts in the two hole of the batting order until his .624 OPS on May 1 led to a bump to the bottom half. After the change, he hit .273 with a .905 OPS and three home runs across 14 games.

“Just trying to keep it simple,” McLain said during the hot streak. “Stay over the middle of the plate and drive it back up the middle and just keep it as simple as that.”

Now elevated to the leadoff spot, McLain has gone 1-for-14 in three games. It’s certainly a curious case.

There may be a bit of bad luck mixed in, with a .322 xwOBA that suggests he should be close to a league-average hitter. A .254 average on balls in play won’t help, either. However, those numbers both tend to go up as you hit the ball harder, and it’s yet to be seen if McLain can make that happen.

Fortunately, McLain’s strong defense has not faltered. But he was expected to be a key cog in the 2026 Cincinnati offense and has not been thus far. And there’s potentially a crunch for at-bats coming.