5 wise wagers for this weekend's games
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We’ve got some themes in play this weekend. On Saturday, we’re looking at some high-powered offenses. On Sunday, we’re backing two underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.
SATURDAY
Blue Jays at Tigers
The wager: Blue Jays over 5.5 runs
Line: +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
With Toronto being such heavy run line favorites (-145), never mind moneyline favorites (-255), taking the over on their run total is the way to get a better payout while still backing the Blue Jays to win. Between their offense and Kevin Gausman toeing the rubber Saturday, there’s no reason the Blue Jays shouldn’t continue to surge.
When it comes to this play, Toronto finds itself in a similar spot to Friday. Tigers starter Beau Brieske hasn’t been thriving in his rookie campaign, specifically against right-handed hitters. Righties have a 38.8% hard-contact rate against him this season, which has led to a .406 wOBA. Eight of the 12 home runs he’s given up have been hit by right-handed hitters, along with all six of the doubles he’s surrendered. So, the Detroit rookie isn’t exactly in ideal form heading into a meeting with one of the league's most feared groupings of right-handed hitters.
Mets at Angels
The wager: Mets over 4.5 runs
Line: -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Opponents have gone over this number in each of Angels starter Michael Lorenzen’s past two outings and five of his nine this season. He particularly struggles against left-handed bats, and this New York lineup is full of those. Lefties have a .398 wOBA against him to start the season, and he has posted a 6.42 FIP and 5.14 ERA against them. The Mets’ left-handed bats rank among the top 10 in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching, putting them in position to replicate their output from Friday.
Yankees vs. Cubs
The wager: Joey Gallo over 1.5 total bases and Yankees over 1.5 runs
Line: +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Left-handed hitters haven’t had as much success against Cubs starter Matt Swarmer in the early going, but three of the five extra-base hits he’s given up have been hit by lefties -- including two of the three homers he’s surrendered. Also, lefties have a 55.6% fly-ball rate against Swarmer while boasting a 44.4% hard-contact rate. Twenty-four total batters faced is a small sample size, but it makes sense they’d hit for power against him when you consider he relies on his breaking ball far more than his changeup.
Gallo has been trending in the right direction, despite going 0-for-2 on Friday. Backing him to take Swarmer deep at +245 is a good dart throw for the night, but this play provides a little more wiggle room with a strong payout. The over/under on the Yankees’ run total is 5.5, so feel free to adjust that part of this bet how you see fit -- parlaying these to picks is necessary with Gallo’s total bases prop only available at 0.5 straight-up.
SUNDAY
Reds at Cardinals
The wager: Reds moneyline
Line: +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
The Cardinals have had some nice stretches against right-handed pitching this season but largely haven’t thrived against them. Whether you look at St. Louis' .698 OPS, .136 wOBA or 26.3% hard-contact rate, Reds starter Graham Ashcraft is in position to continue his strong rookie campaign.
The Reds actually have worse numbers against right-handers than the Cardinals -- which shouldn’t surprise anyone. However, their hard-contact rate (31.5%) is far superior. Cards starter Dakota Hudson has been very good this season, but this Cincinnati lineup has a decent understanding of what to expect from him. This is Ashcraft’s first start vs. St. Louis, which plays in the Reds’ favor.
Rockies at Padres
The wager: Rockies moneyline
Line: +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
As is the case pretty much every season, Colorado’s offense isn’t as tough on the road as it is at home. But the Rockies still rank among the top 10 in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitchers away from Coors Field. Padres starter Blake Snell has a quality start under his belt, but he hasn’t been great outside of that.
Rockies starter Germán Márquez hasn’t exactly been electric in 2022 either, but he’s coming off a quality start against a Giants lineup that’s hitting right-handed pitching well this season. The Padres, on the other hand, are trending in the wrong direction. They’ve got a .114 ISO and .290 wOBA against right-handers since mid-May.
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