4 wise wagers for tonight's Apple TV+ games
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As we have every Friday, Apple TV+ will be showcasing two of the 15 games on the MLB schedule. First up, we have the White Sox at Astros, followed by the Guardians at Dodgers for some interleague action. I’ll provide four bets you can make for these games that you can follow along with as you watch tonight.
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White Sox at Astros
The wager: Game Total Over 8 Runs
Line: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Despite the two names taking the mound in Lucas Giolito and Framber Valdez, I think this game is heading for the over. It’s been tough to take overs with the Astros involved, as they’ve been one of the best under teams in the league. The under has hit in 68.3% of the Astros' games, going 43-20. However, this has not been the case lately. During the month of June, the Astros have played 13 games and the over has gone 8-5 during the span. A big reason why has been because of how well the Astros are hitting, slashing .270/.354/.444 with 16 home runs and 63 runs scored this month.
Then we have a case against both starters. Lucas Giolito has been getting knocked around of late, especially in his last three starts. Against the Rangers, Rays and Blue Jays, Giolito has thrown 15 2/3 innings, allowing 15 runs (12 earned) on 22 hits, five of which were home runs, and seven walks. That gives him a 6.89 ERA, a .449 wOBA, and a 6.02 FIP in those games. The cherry on top has been all the hard contact he’s allowed at 40.8% in those starts. It’s very clear that he’s not getting unlucky, he’s giving up this offense.
The White Sox are also one of the best hitting clubs against lefties, which they’ll be facing in Valdez. On the season, the White Sox have a .362 wOBA and a 141 wRC+, both of which rank first in the league. With the White Sox hitting the over just over half of the season at 30-29-2, I think this is a great game to target the over 8 runs.
White Sox at Astros
The wager: AJ Pollock over 1.5 bases
Line: +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
I was a bit surprised to see this bet at +110, as Pollock has been one of the best hitters for the White Sox as of late. Pollock has gone over 1.5 bases in SEVEN straight games, dating back to June 9. It’s a hitting streak that hasn’t seen him hit for much power, as he’s collected three doubles in that span, but every game has at least two hits. Pollock has historically been a much better hitter against lefties and that’s been true thus far. Through 45 plate appearances, Pollock is hitting .318 with a .404 wOBA.
With the lefty Valdez taking the mound, I think this is a great game to take the over on this total. Valdez is a contact pitcher, as he’s striking out less than a batter an inning with a 7.3 K/9. With Pollock hitting atop the White Sox lineup, he should be logging at least five at-bats in this game, giving him ample opportunity to go over this 1.5 base mark. Getting this at +110 feels like a great spot, especially with the matchup.
Guardians at Dodgers
The wager: Dodgers Team Total over 4.5 runs
Line: -130 (bet $100 to win $77)
I like this spot for the Dodgers to put up at least five runs tonight at home against the Guardians. On the mound will be Zach Plesac, who has made 11 starts and thrown 61 1/3 innings. The biggest eye-opener for me was seeing Plesac have a 4.70 ERA but also a 6.08 xERA. If you’re not familiar with xERA, it basically tells you what his ERA would look like based on the underlying characteristics of balls in play. So, if a player has a sizable discrepancy in his ERA and xERA, it tells us that, Plesac, in this example, has been fortunate to suppress some of these runs. Facing a team like the Dodgers can certainly change that.
Coming into this game, the Dodgers are one of the top-scoring teams at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game. Only the Reds and Rockies have a better average runs per game at home. Overall, the Dodgers average just over 5 runs per game at 5.08. Now, they’ll take on a pitcher who doesn’t have strikeout stuff (6.3 K/9 on the year) and doesn’t induce a lot of ground balls (39.1%). To be fair, the Dodgers have not been the offensive juggernaut we’ve come to know during the month of June, as the 45 total runs scored are one of the lowest in the league. I like this matchup for them a lot and firmly believe they’ll go over the 4.5 runs tonight.
Guardians at Dodgers
The wager: Freddie Freeman over 1.5 bases
Line: -105 (bet $100 to win $95)
One of the biggest issues for Plesac has been succeeding against left-handed bats. Opposing hitters are hitting .302 against him with a .366 wOBA. Five of the nine home runs that Plesac has allowed have also come off the bats of lefties. While Freeman hasn’t been hitting many home runs, with only five on the season, he is sixth in the league in doubles with 21. When it comes to going over 1.5 bases, he’s done that in 24 games this season, which is just under 40% of the total games he’s played. Getting this close to even money is what really got my attention, especially in a matchup against a pitcher who doesn’t strike out opposing hitters.
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