How the Padres could fill out their starting rotation for 2027

SAN DIEGO -- The Padres are set to enter the offseason with major questions about their starting rotation.

What else is new?

It’s become something of a yearly occurrence for the Padres to enter the winter in search of starting pitching. General manager A.J. Preller generally finds it, too, even if he has to get creative.

Before the offseason officially gets underway, here’s a look at who the Padres have, and who they might be losing, in their starting rotation:

Returning: Randy Vásquez

Let’s not lose sight of what Vásquez has meant for this rotation over the past couple seasons. When San Diego’s rotation was incredibly thin, Vásquez helped stabilize it. He posted a 3.87 ERA across 60 appearances (49 starts) in 2024 and ‘25.

Obviously, the Padres would like to have more certainty about their rotation than just Vásquez, but they can pencil him in the No. 4 spot for 2027 and feel relatively good about it.

Potentially returning: Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish

Big-time questions here. All very different.

Pivetta’s player option became a team option when he spent more than 130 days on the injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow this season. He was excellent down the stretch, posting a 2.05 ERA after his return on Sept. 7, including two postseason outings. San Diego won all six of his starts. If the Padres are sure Pivetta is healthy, he’s worth the two years and $32 million remaining on his deal.

Speaking of health: Musgrove returned from right elbow surgery in the postseason and, pitching for the first time since 2024, looked about as sharp as the Padres could’ve hoped for. But he also had trouble building back into a starting role. It seems likely he’d attack that challenge anew next year.

Darvish, meanwhile, remains a wild card. With two years remaining on his contract, he still hasn’t decided whether he’s going to attempt a comeback from the right elbow surgery he underwent in October 2025. He will turn 41 next summer.

Likely a free agent: Michael King

King can opt out of the three-year deal he signed last December, which has two more years and $58 million remaining. (If he opts out, he would receive a $5 million buyout.)

Coming off the season -- and postseason -- that he just turned in, it seems likely he’d opt out. King made 32 starts with a 3.21 ERA, then owned the postseason stage with a 0.64 ERA across 14 innings. The 31-year-old figures to be one of the most sought-after starters on the free-agent market and could be seeking a longer-term deal. But King seems open to a reunion.

“San Diego has been incredible for me, and it’s all the way across the country from home,” said King, a native of Rochester, N.Y. “Now, I feel like I have a second home on the West Coast. It’s been awesome. And I hope to continue it.”

Free agents: Walker Buehler, Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning, Robbie Ray

Buehler’s resurgence was one of the biggest success stories of the Padres’ season. He signed a Minor League deal during camp, then made the roster, making 32 starts. He’ll hit the market again this winter and probably command a pay raise, though the Padres would presumably be interested in a reunion.

From the rest of that group? Mize, who was acquired at the Deadline, and Giolito, who signed as a free agent in April, both struggled mightily in San Diego. Mize posted a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts before landing on the IL with a right ankle sprain, while Giolito missed most of the season with right elbow inflammation.

Canning struggled to a 5.68 ERA in 30 appearances (11 starts). Ray was serviceable (5.02 ERA in 43 innings) after arriving at the Trade Deadline from the Giants, and could be an option at the right price. (So many of the Padres’ current options are righties, the lefty Ray could at least balance that.)

In the mix: JP Sears, Luis Gutierrez

Speaking of lefties … Sears will be out of options entering the 2027 season. He’s worth another look, at least during camp. Gutierrez, the team’s No. 12 prospect, must be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.

The verdict

Count Vásquez and Pivetta as in. (Or, if the Padres are worried about Pivetta’s health, then count those two years and $32 million as money that can be allocated toward a Pivetta-type addition.)

There are major questions beyond that. What can you count on from Musgrove? What about Darvish if he decides to return? Can Sears establish himself?

Among that group, let’s say you’re getting one back-of-the-rotation type starter. That leaves the Padres in need of at least two starting pitchers this winter, preferably front- or at least middle-of-the-rotation types. Preller has some work to do.