3 questions for Crew ahead of 2022

MILWAUKEE -- It’s a sprint to Spring Training and Opening Day after baseball’s lockout came to an end.

Here are three questions facing the Brewers as they prepare to get back on the field:

1. Is there a chance the roster is already largely set?

Perhaps, thanks to the acquisition of outfielder Hunter Renfroe on Dec. 1. That acquisition, announced minutes before transactions froze across the sport, gave the Brewers a power-hitting replacement for right fielder Avisaíl García, who was arguably Milwaukee’s most significant free-agent departure coming off a career-high 29 home runs. Renfroe topped 30 homers in each of 2019 and ’21, MLB’s last two full seasons.

Before that trade, one could make a case that the Brewers’ most glaring hole was a starting outfielder and/or power hitter. Renfroe filled both needs, and with him in place, the core of the team currently looks like this:

SP Brandon Woodruff
SP Corbin Burnes
SP Freddy Peralta
SP Adrian Houser
SP Eric Lauer
SP Aaron Ashby

CL Josh Hader
RP Devin Williams
RP Brent Suter
RP Jake Cousins

Other candidates including J.C. Mejía, Trevor Gott, Miguel Sánchez, Jandel Gustave, Ethan Small

Cs Omar Narváez and Pedro Severino
1B Rowdy Tellez
2B Kolten Wong
3B Luis Urías
SS Willy Adames
LF Christian Yelich
CF Lorenzo Cain
RF Hunter Renfroe
Bench Mike Brosseau, Tyrone Taylor, Keston Hiura, Jace Peterson

There will surely be some additions and subtractions before Opening Day, but the point is that the Brewers are reasonably well positioned as trades and signings resumed. They could add around the edges, trade from their pitching depth or stand pat all while fielding a competitive team.

2. If they do make changes, what are the top needs?

The bullpen probably needs some pieces after the departure of free agents Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland, each of whom effectively covered innings last year. Boxberger didn’t make the Brewers’ 2021 Opening Day roster but wound up leading the team in appearances. Small, Milwaukee’s top Draft pick in 2019 out of Mississippi State, is a strong contender to follow in the footsteps of Burnes, Peralta (both 2018) and Ashby (2020) as pitching prospects who got their feet wet in the big leagues as a reliever. But that could be a midseason move as Small missed much of 2021 with a finger injury.

Since bullpen pieces are often the last to sign in a typical offseason, there remain plenty of good options on the open market as baseball reopens for business. Among the free agents still out there, in fact, are Boxberger and Strickland.

While the bullpen is the most obvious need, there is room to debate whether it is wise to return with Milwaukee’s position-player unit essentially the same -- except for Renfroe in García’s place and Brosseau bouncing around the field. Remember, the Brewers’ offense collapsed late last year, including against the Braves in the National League Division Series. Over the final three weeks of the regular season plus the postseason, the Brewers were last in OPS (.613), 28th in runs per game (3.23) and 26th in plate appearances per strikeout (3.96). Should David Stearns & Co. make additional changes to the offense, there could be at-bats available at first base alongside Tellez, potentially at third base if the Brewers plan to move Urías around the field again, and most notably in the outfield, where Yelich and Cain have some injury history.

There were four openings on the 40-man roster as the transaction freeze lifted.

3. What’s the budget situation?

Always a difficult question to answer, since the Brewers don’t open their books. All we have to go by is historical spending, and if that is the gauge, then the budget is tight -- unless the team intends to blow past previous spending.

Ten players remain eligible for arbitration, and the list reads like a who’s who: Hader, Renfroe, Woodruff, Narváez, Burnes, Adames, Lauer, Urías, Houser and Suter. Burnes, Adames, Lauer, Urías (a Super Two) and Houser are all arbitration-eligible for the first time and stand to garner significant raises. Based on historical comps, those players will combine for $40-$50 million on top of the $60 million or so already committed, including $52.5 million due to Yelich, Cain and Wong alone. Calculating payroll is an art, since different sources have different thoughts about including costs beyond base salaries, but one educated guess from Fangraphs pegs the Brewers’ current payroll projection at $121 million assuming no additions or subtractions.

For comparison, the same site estimated the Brewers’ payroll at the end of 2021 at $97 million.

"I know David Stearns has prepared for this day for a long time and he'll know what to do," Brewers president of business operations Rick Schlesinger said.

On the payroll question, Schlesinger added, "I would say this: The one thing Mark [Attanasio, Milwaukee's principal owner] has always made clear is he wants to win. And Mark has always been able to be flexible. If David comes to him with a transaction that makes sense for us, one of the jobs that I have is to try to generate as much revenue as possible to give David as much flexibility [as possible]. And in turn, what David does is try to present the most creative ideas to Mark, and if those cost money and make sense for the team, Mark's going to green-light it. But again, until we know the details, until David presents Mark with potential [deals], it's very speculative. I can tell you this: We have a very good team, Mark wants to win, we all want to win and Mark always stretches to make that happen. Then it falls on my shoulders to give David the money."