Cubs' hard contact leading to loud outs. What gives? A look at some unlucky numbers

ST. PETERSBURG -- To succeed at the plate, they say you’ve got to hit ‘em where they ain’t.

And right now, the Cubs’ offense ain’t.

Chicago entered Monday’s series opener against the Rays with a 46.0% hard-hit rate, second-best in baseball. They stung the ball time and time again against Tampa Bay, too. But those balls often found leather instead of grass en route to a 6-4 loss at Tropicana Field.

“Today was a little bit of a combination of at times we hit some balls good and didn't get rewarded for them, and then at times we had some empty at-bats that didn't put enough pressure on them,” manager Craig Counsell said. “Then you look up in the eighth inning, and you’ve got three hits.”

Counsell’s count is right. But his team should have had more.

The Cubs had 10 batted balls that would be classified as hard-hit, with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. Only four of them turned into hits. Going 4-for-10 at the dish might sound great, but consider that the league batting average on hard-hit balls entering Monday was .464. The Cubs’ batting average on such balls was .351, the lowest in MLB. Their slugging percentage was .647 on hard-hit balls while the league-average slug was .897.

“That’s what is obviously frustrating about how this works,” Counsell said. “We have very good hitters, some of whom are not succeeding right now. They will in a big way. On top of that, we're kind of light on catching some breaks.

“But you’ve got to put more runs on the board to win baseball games too.”

Despite all of that solid contact, the Cubs dropped back-to-back games for the first time this season. They have scored 17 runs over their past six contests, six of which came from their April 1 win over the Angels.

One of those very good hitters who is not succeeding right now is Pete Crow-Armstrong, who went 0-for-4 to drop his season slash line to .211/.250/.237. He ripped a curveball from Rays starter Shane McClanahan in the fourth inning at 105.5 mph off the bat -- only to see it go right to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. That came one inning after Ian Happ and Carson Kelly each hit balls that had an expected batting average of .370 but resulted in flyouts.

Then in the sixth inning, Matt Shaw, who collected three hard-hit balls for the first time in his young career, drove a ball that looked like it might change the game. The Cubs had cut their deficit to one run on a Michael Busch sacrifice fly and had the tying run on second base when Shaw drilled a changeup from reliever Ian Seymour to dead center field at 100.7 mph.

“I hit really well, so I thought there was a chance,” Shaw said. “It's always tough hitting it to center field, so you never really know, but I thought I hit it well enough that maybe it could have [gone over the fence].”

Alas, it did not. Shaw’s fly landed in the glove of Cedric Mullins, who was a step from the wall. Expected batting average on that one? .550.

Aranda put up two insurance runs in the bottom of the seventh thanks to a homer off Phil Maton. Shaw got one back in the top of the ninth as he belted his second homer in as many games. But as has been a theme through 10 games, the Cubs simply didn’t have enough offense to show for their efforts.

Of course, it has been only 10 games.

“I think you just always remind yourself that it’s a 162-game season, so over that period of time, over 500 at-bats, all that stuff evens out,” Shaw said regarding his team’s tough batted-ball luck. “Obviously it hasn't really bounced our way yet, but I think we're in a really good spot.

“When it starts bouncing our way, we're going to be a really, really good team.”