Cubs-Padres position-by-position breakdown

It's a rematch -- the Cubs vs. the Padres in the National League Wild Card Series for a second straight year.

The Cubs won the 2025 showdown in three games at Wrigley Field, before falling to the Brewers in the Division Series. This time San Diego has the home-field advantage for the Wild Card round -- the Padres are the No. 4 seed in the NL and hosting the No. 5-seeded Cubs.

Will the Cubs take down the Padres again? Or will the Padres flip the script this time?

Here's who has the edge in the series, position by position.

First base
If the first basemen on these teams were hitting like they did last year, this would be an easy advantage to the Cubs. But Michael Busch hasn't been quite as dangerous as he was in 2025, dropping from 34 to 20 home runs and a 142 OPS+ to a 107 OPS+. And for the Padres, Ty France has come out of nowhere -- he signed a Minor League deal in the offseason! -- to be a top-10 hitter in the National League this year. France has been on fire down the stretch, too, batting .321 with a .908 OPS in the second half.

Advantage: Padres

Second base
You just know what you're going to get from Nico Hoerner. Every year it's the same: elite contact hitting … not a lot of power … and elite defense at second base. He was awesome in the playoffs last year, too, batting .419 across the Cubs' two series. Jake Cronenworth is a nice jack-of-all-trades to have if you're the Padres (we're assuming Cronenworth will be at second, and Fernando Tatis Jr. in right field), but he doesn't give you quite as much as Hoerner does, both with the bat and the glove.

Advantage: Cubs

Third base
It's been an interesting season for Manny Machado. He hit 30 home runs, sure, but he also batted .217 and posted a OPS of just .710, which is basically a league-average hitter. But Chicago should have the edge here, because despite sustaining facial fractures just a week earlier, Alex Bregman looked just fine on Sunday, going 4-for-4 and mashing two homers in just his second game back in the lineup. Bregman's been the best third basemen in baseball since the All-Star break -- actually, he's been one of the best players in baseball, period.

Advantage: Cubs

Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson have pretty similar offensive numbers -- 13 homers, 22 steals and a .676 OPS for Bogaerts, 19 homers, 17 steals and a .694 OPS for Dansby. But Swanson is one of baseball's rangiest defensive shortstops. Bogaerts is above-average, too, but he's not the difference-maker Swanson is in the field, with outs at a premium in the playoffs.

Advantage: Cubs

Left field
The Padres have a nice little platoon going in left field with left-handed-hitting Dustin Harris and righty Samad Taylor, who are both hitting around .300 with San Diego. But the Cubs have one of their leaders out there in Ian Happ, who puts up pretty much the same numbers year after year -- including 2026, with his 24 home runs, 55 extra-base hits and 68 RBIs.

Advantage: Cubs

Center field
No contest here -- and that's not a shot at Jackson Merrill, who's a great center fielder in his own right. But he's not Pete Crow-Armstrong. PCA is the most valuable player in baseball by a country mile. The gap between Crow-Armstrong and baseball's next-best players, Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr., is the biggest since Mickey Mantle's edge over the rest of the league in his iconic 1956 season. PCA's MLB-leading 45 home runs (he's sharing the home run crown with Kyle Schwarber), 41 stolen bases and unparalleled outfield defense would give him the advantage over, well, anyone.

Advantage: Cubs

Right field
While the Cubs have their superstar in center field, the Padres have theirs in right. Fernando Tatis Jr. has carried this team for months. It's crazy to remember that Tatis didn't hit a single home run for his first 55 games of the season -- because, since he connected for that first one on May 30, he's hit 25 homers with a .914 OPS in 104 games. With all due respect to Seiya Suzuki, Tatis is on another level right now.

Advantage: Padres

Catcher
Padres 20-year-old catching phenom Ethan Salas could be an X-factor in this series, but San Diego also has Luis Campusano and Freddy Fermin. How the Padres are going to handle that three-catcher carousel is one of their biggest questions heading into the Wild Card Series. The Cubs at least have a little more stability with Carson Kelly leading the way, even though the veteran hasn't been as productive as he was last season -- when he hit a big home run against the Padres in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. Small edge to the Cubs for now.

Advantage: Cubs

Designated hitter
Neither team really has a premium DH option like some of the teams in the playoffs (Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies, Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers, Yordan Alvarez and the Astros…). But Michael Conforto has had a nice bounceback season for Chicago with 15 home runs and a 117 OPS+, and he should get to face at least a couple of righties in the Padres' playoff rotation. If San Diego goes with some combination of hitters like Gavin Sheets and Miguel Andujar, those guys just haven't been that good this year. Maybe one or both teams get creative with who they deploy at DH, but we'll give this to the Cubs until we see the lineups.

Advantage: Cubs

Starting rotation
Both teams have some questions in the starting rotation. But the Padres have the best starter in this series in Michael King, at least as far as season-long consistency. King made 32 starts for San Diego and threw 185 innings with a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts. He'll get the ball for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. The Padres could go with Nick Pivetta after that, who's made only eight starts this season but has a 2.86 ERA (almost identical to his 2.87 mark last year), and then either former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray or Walker Buehler in Game 3. The Cubs have Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman available to start the series, with Clay Holmes, David Peterson and possibly Shota Imanaga (who'd be on short rest) available later on. Those Chicago arms have a solid track record, and Gausman helped pitch the Blue Jays to the American League pennant last year, but the Padres starters have looked a little better in 2026.

Advantage: Padres

Bullpen
On paper, this is San Diego's biggest trump card in this series. If the Padres can get the ball to their bullpen with a lead in the late innings, that bullpen can shut down even the best of offenses -- which the Cubs are. Padres setup men Adrian Morejon (2.83 ERA, 107 strikeouts) and Bradgley Rodriguez (2.19 ERA, 81 K's) are awesome. And Mason Miller (NL-best 38 saves, 1.67 ERA, 129 K's) is the most dominant closer in the game. The Cubs' bullpen, led by arms like Daniel Palencia, Ryan Zeferjahn and Ryan Rolison, can't really stack up -- but no bullpen can really stack up to the Padres'.

Advantage: Padres

Prediction
Last year, we picked the Padres in three in large part because of that lights-out bullpen. But the Cubs managed to get out to leads before the late innings in Games 1 and 3 and take the series. This year we're learning. We've got the Cubs.

Maybe the Padres will make us eat our words, especially at home, where they're 51-30 this season. But Crow-Armstrong is at the peak of his powers and we think the Cubs are going to rally around their soon-to-be MVP. Their pitching might be questionable, but they're an offensive powerhouse and their defense is the best in the Majors. The one thing we know for sure is, we want to see a Miller vs. PCA showdown with a game on the line.

Cubs in 3 (again)