Nootbaar's imminent return has potential to boost Cards' production

The Cardinals just lost their first series since April 26. And while their pitching cracked in all three contests vs. the Pirates, the disappearance of production from the bottom of their lineup may be even more concerning.

Over the Cardinals' last 15 games, the only regulars in their lineup to have an OPS north of .745 are the top four hitters in their lineup: JJ Wetherholt, Iván Herrera, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Aside from Nolan Gorman (.683 OPS), every other starter or regular contributor has an OPS of .566 or lower during that stretch.

We’ve seen just how impactful the top of the order can be. But if the Cardinals want to be an offense that teams fear, they need more bats in their lineup to produce at close to or above a league-average level. Right now, when opposing staffs get past the top four of the Cardinals’ lineup, they are facing little to no resistance.

Well, at least they have an important reinforcement on his way.

Lars Nootbaar, who has been on the 60-day injured list after offseason surgery on both of his heels, began his rehab assignment last week and recently joined Triple-A Memphis for his last stop before his return to St. Louis. Nootbaar is eligible to be activated from the injured list on Sunday, though there is a good chance it takes a bit longer than that.

His return to the lineup can’t come soon enough.

While Nootbaar had a down year in 2025, his career .747 OPS would be fifth best on the team this season -- a clear step up from their next most productive bat in Gorman (a .680 OPS). And if Nootbaar can return to his pre-2025 production at the plate, he would serve as an important bridge to the bottom of the Cardinals’ lineup.

Prior to ‘25, Nootbaar was quietly one of the more productive bats in the sport. Out of 303 qualified hitters from 2021-2024, Nootbaar’s 116 wRC+ was 74th, tied with the Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton and ahead of those like the Astros' Christian Walker, the Blue Jays' George Springer and the Red Sox's Jarren Duran. Nootbaar found his success at the plate similarly to the Cardinals’ current best hitters: walking a ton, limiting strikeouts, and doing damage when opposing pitchers made mistakes.

Because so much of the conversation around Nootbaar centered on his advanced metrics, it was easy to overlook just how productive he actually was. Bats that are 16% above league average don’t grow on trees.

Left fielder Nathan Church is expected to be placed on the injured list on Friday, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, so the Cardinals have a clear opening in their outfield for Nootbaar to slot in when he’s available. While Church has had an impressive rookie campaign so far, the production at the plate has waned in recent weeks. A healthy and productive Nootbaar would represent a significant upgrade offensively. And once Church returns, he could push Victor Scott II for playing time in center, which could further bolster the Cardinals' offense.

While Nootbaar’s return represents a big opportunity for the Cardinals' offense to level up heading into the summer, it will still be on the rest of their regulars to find success at the plate and help deepen this lineup. Masyn Winn has had sustained stretches in his young career of above league-average performance at the plate, but he’s struggled to get things going consistently this year. Gorman has the ability to mash baseballs like no other bat on the roster outside of Walker, but consistency in doing so will determine how productive he can be.

Perhaps getting Nootbaar in the lineup could be a case of a rising tide lifts all boats. He’s just one player, and expecting him to carry the offense isn’t fair. But extending their highly productive portion of the lineup could go a long way toward helping their six through nine hitters pick up their production as well.

The million-dollar question is what version of Nootbaar will the Cardinals be getting upon his return? Nootbaar posted a career-high in games (135) in 2025 while managing career-worsts in OBP (.325), SLG (.361), and wRC+ (96). While Nootbaar and the Cardinals believe his play was hindered by his heel issues, only time will tell.

But if the Cardinals get the old Nootbaar back, their lineup suddenly becomes a lot more difficult to navigate from top to bottom.