Would Mets sell at this year's Deadline? Rival execs break down club's outlook

To say the Mets’ season hasn’t gone according to plan would be a gross understatement.

Following an offseason that saw president of baseball operations David Stearns make myriad changes, including the departure of several long-time fan favorites, New York entered Wednesday with a 16-25 record that was worse than all but three clubs.

“Do you think they are bad or just not playing well?” a National League executive wondered. “They have big-contract guys that need to play better.”

Stearns said this week that although his club has obviously underachieved, he believes the pieces are in place to turn things around.

“I think we have the talent on the roster and the character on the roster to make a run,” Stearns said. “We've got a lot of season left. I'm not going to say it's early; it's not. We're a quarter into the season, it's not early anymore, but we do have enough season left to make a run and I think we have the talent to do that.”

The question is: what if they don’t? Could the Mets, who entered the season with championship aspirations, become a high-profile seller this summer? And if so, what exactly could they sell to try jump-starting their next run?

“It’s way too early to tell whether the Mets should plan to sell,” an NL executive said. “Everyone needs to remember they were 11 games under .500 in early June 2024 and ended up in the NLCS. It would be surprising to see them engage on any sell-side deals until late July, even if they do decide to go that direction.”

Assuming that Stearns gives his team another month or two to turn things around, a decision to sell might be accompanied by another issue: the Mets’ roster isn’t exactly filled with desirable assets.

“If they do decide to sell, I’m not sure there are enough movable positive assets that they wouldn’t see as part of a competitive team in the future for it to make sense,” an American League executive said. “Unless they eat a lot of money like they did a few years ago.”

Three seasons ago in a retooling effort that helped push them to the NLCS just one year later, the Mets spent about $85 million to trade away several players, including former aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

On the position-player side, the Mets have a number of sizable contracts that would be difficult to trade (Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette), even bigger contracts that they wouldn’t be interested in moving (Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor) or underachieving/injured players who wouldn’t bring back a significant return (Luis Robert Jr., Jorge Polanco, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty).

“I think they have to wait just to recoup some value for the players that have struggled at the start,” an NL executive said of a potential Mets sell-off.

Pitching would be the Mets’ best avenue to the trade market, starting with Freddy Peralta, who is slated to become a free agent at the end of the season. Peralta has a 3.10 ERA in nine starts this season, and although the Mets gave up two key prospects to acquire him last winter, the need for starting pitching around the league typically makes for strong returns in that area every summer.

Then there’s Clay Holmes, the reliever-turned-starter who has been one of the best pitchers in the Majors this season. Holmes has a 1.86 ERA in his first eight starts, but his contract could make a trade a bit tricky. Holmes is earning $13 million this season – a club-friendly amount for a top starter – and is signed for $12 million in 2027, but he can opt out of that final year after the season, sending him back to the free-agent market this winter.

“The tricky thing with Holmes is: what am I trading for?” an AL executive said. “Am I getting two months of him? Or am I getting 2027, too?”

The Guardians faced a similar situation last summer with Shane Bieber, the former AL Cy Young winner who had a $16 million player option for 2026. Bieber was coming back from elbow surgery and hadn’t pitched since April 2024, but Toronto acquired him for right-hander Khal Stephen, its No. 5 prospect. Bieber pitched well for the Jays and helped during their World Series run, then exercised his option to remain in Toronto this season.

But the uncertainty surrounding Holmes’ opt-out is likely to tighten his market if the Mets make him available.

“There are some teams that will not trade for an opt-out player,” added an NL executive. “If he got hurt, you have to factor in the downside only to make the value work.”

Might a bullpen-needy club roll the dice on Devin Williams? The two-time Trevor Hoffman Award winner has struggled during his stints with the Yankees and Mets, but perhaps a change of scenery away from New York could help him revert to his dominant self. Williams is in the first year of a three-year, $51 million contract.

• After rocky start, Devin Williams settling in for Mets

David Peterson is set to become a free agent at the end of the season, but the 30-year-old lefty hasn’t performed well this season, losing his spot in the rotation before the end of April.

Reliever Brooks Raley is also heading to free agency next season, and while he’s had a stellar season to this point (1.13 ERA in 17 appearances), it’s unclear how much the 37-year-old left-hander would bring back in a trade.

Multiple executives believe the Mets will wait until July to make a decision on whether to buy, sell or stand pat. If the season continues to spiral, selling would be the most sensible path, though some executives questioned whether owner Steve Cohen would have the stomach to take that ignominious approach for the second time in four seasons.

“I can’t imagine they sell,” an AL executive said. “How do they save face doing that? They have to win. Five years and a World Series championship; Steve Cohen said it himself.”