With so many clubs still in it, these pressing questions could decide the playoff picture

The 2026 season zoomed past its halfway point recently, but for all of the baseball that’s already been played, very little has been resolved with regard to which teams we’ll be watching in October. The standings remain a puzzle, featuring a tangled web of teams hovering near the .500 mark, with little separation.

Of course, not everything is up in the air. The Dodgers have a 12-game NL West lead and a … 100% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs odds. The Brewers, Rays, Braves, Yankees, Phillies and Cubs also are in solid position, with winning percentages above .550 and playoff odds above 75%, entering play Thursday. On the flip side, the Rockies, Royals, Giants, Angels and Mets were each below a .420 winning percentage and 5% playoff odds. That’s not to say these teams’ fortunes are completely set in stone, but we have a pretty good idea of where their seasons are headed.

That still leaves a whopping 18 teams that make up a muddled middle in the standings. This group might all be lumped together, but their situations and outlooks are quite different. Undoubtedly, their final results will be, too. Let’s break this all down by asking the eight most pressing questions to set the table for the final three months.

(Each team is listed with its FanGraphs playoffs odds entering play Thursday.)

1. Can one of the season’s big disappointments turn the ship around?

Had we asked this question a while back, we would have included the Phillies and the Mets, but the former already rebounded while the latter sank further back. So that leaves us with the Tigers (23.4%) and Red Sox (13.7%), two teams that are not out of the race but also have very little margin for error. Like the Phillies and Mets, the Sox have changed up their dugout leadership, but the switch to interim manager Chad Tracy (27-31) hasn’t yielded any sustained momentum. Case in point: Boston reeled off a five-game winning streak that included a four-game sweep of the Yankees -- but then suffered consecutive blowout losses to the Nationals on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The answer to the question above is particularly crucial because of Trade Deadline implications. The Tigers showed signs of life in June following a miserable May, and their performance over the next month will determine whether Tarik Skubal stays put or becomes another contender’s prize. Meanwhile, the Sox falling out of contention could put a number of intriguing names on the block as well.

2. Will a surprise team capitalize on its window opening early?

The thing about rebuilding is that sometimes the project bears fruit quicker than anticipated. That’s been true to at least some extent for a number of teams this season, including six that were among the bottom 10 in playoff odds before Opening Day but now find themselves very much in the mix.

The White Sox (40.2%) now lead the AL Central, while the Cardinals (30.5%), Twins (26.8%), Marlins (26.1%), Athletics (18.3%) and Nationals (6.9%) all sat within three games of a Wild Card spot entering Thursday. As those numbers indicate, the projections still have some skepticism that these teams can maintain their positions all the way through September, especially in the case of the Nats.

But chances are, someone will crash the party from this group of six teams with young rosters that entered 2026 with a combined 22 straight years falling short of the playoffs and an average of 90.5 losses just one year ago.

3. Will we get a 2025 ALCS rematch after all?

No, we’re not talking about the three-game series that begins in Seattle between the Mariners (83.6%) and Blue Jays (32.9%). We’re talking about a possible rematch in October, a year after these teams played a sensationally thrilling seven-game contest that ended with the Jays heading to the World Series.

Whether it’s a hangover from an arduous postseason or something else entirely, it’s been a mighty struggle for both teams in 2026. Neither has been able to find its footing and win consistently. Both have a star hitter who has scuffled: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the Jays and especially Cal Raleigh for the Mariners.

The odds favored Seattle before the season began, and that gap has only widened, in part because the Mariners have the much easier path to a division title. Perhaps this weekend’s set will help clarify the picture further.

4. Can the Guardians defy the odds … again?

Cleveland (59.5%) is accustomed to being doubted -- and accustomed to finding a way to prove those doubters wrong. The club has made the playoffs in seven of the past 10 seasons, including two in a row. The Guardians started both of those campaigns with playoff odds under 30%, well behind the supposed AL Central leader. Last year, they began with just the fourth-highest odds in the division.

And this year? They were fourth again, at 16.3%, ahead of only the White Sox. It’s not as if everything has gone smoothly in Cleveland, with José Ramírez on the IL, Steven Kwan hitting .214 and Bo Naylor getting sent down. But as usual, this team finds a way, mostly by keeping runs off the board (eighth in MLB in ERA).

5. Do the Astros and Padres have (at least) one more push in them?

These are two teams with a recent history of success and a clear desire to keep that contention window propped open. The Astros (32.2%) are coming off their first season missing the playoffs since 2016, albeit one that still included 87 wins, while the Padres (16.8%) have qualified for October twice in a row and four times in the past six seasons.

It hasn’t been easy for either, just in different ways. Houston started 16-27 before rebounding, while San Diego started 29-18 before faltering. Both teams are still in it, though. The Astros’ path is just a little easier because they remain in contention in their division as well as the Wild Card race.

6. Is there any Orioles magic left?

The past few seasons have been quite a letdown in Baltimore. In 2023, the Orioles (17.7%) were like a supercharged version of this year’s White Sox, winning 101 games and returning to the postseason earlier than most expected. But after the 2024 season yielded a second straight trip to October that ended with zero playoff victories, the O’s have struggled to recapture the good vibes and winning ways.

It happened in a shocking fall to 87 losses under Brandon Hyde in 2025; it’s happening again under Craig Albernaz in ‘26. After a decent start, the Orioles went a combined 24-32 in May and June, with the team’s young talent again largely falling short of expectations. The standings being what they are, though, there’s still time for all that young talent to finally click.

7. Can the Pirates and Reds put it all together?

Here we have two NL Central teams continuing a long-running search for an October foothold. Combined, they have two postseason appearances (both by Cincinnati) and zero wins over the past 10 seasons. Neither the Pirates (31.3.%) nor Reds (2.0%) have won a multi-game playoff series since 1995.

Both have shown signs in recent years that a better day could be coming. The Reds even reached the playoffs last year, albeit at just 83-79. The Pirates entered 2026 with playoff odds near 50%.

It just hasn’t happened … yet. The Reds’ chances are hanging by a thread after a 19-34 stretch across May and June. The Pirates also had a tough June, and even Paul Skenes has slumped. But if one of these teams is going to make a serious run, Pittsburgh seems more likely.

8. Can the Rangers and D-backs make it 2023 all over again?

Not much was expected from these two teams in 2023, with both coming off seasons well under .500 and just two seasons removed from 100-plus losses. Yet they ended up facing each other in the World Series, with Texas coming out on top.

Neither has been able to build on that success, mostly hovering around .500 since. That’s the case again in 2026, but hovering around .500 puts both in a decent spot. In fact, the Rangers (58.1%) entered Thursday leading the AL West and have the fifth-highest playoff odds in the AL, despite Corey Seager making three separate trips to the IL. The D-backs (20.0%) may be out of it in the NL West, but they still have a fighting chance in the Wild Card race, despite the absence of Corbin Burnes and rough years from Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.

As 2023 showed, you never know where the second half of the season will take you.