2 months into regular season, a shuffle in the playoff picture

We’re just about one-third of the way through the 2026 regular season, and as division and Wild Card races begin to take shape ahead of the All-Star break, it’s time to check in on which teams would be in the postseason, along with what the matchups would look like if the playoffs were to begin now.

Here’s a breakdown of what the postseason field would look like if the season ended today.

(Here's a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook.)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Byes: Rays (1) and Guardians (2)

Nope, not the defending AL champion Blue Jays. Not the Yankees. The two top seeds currently belong to none other than the Rays and Guards. Tampa Bay currently has the best record in the league after missing the postseason entirely in 2025, the second straight year the club missed the playoffs after five straight appearances. And manager Steven Vogt is looking to make it three straight AL Central titles since he took the helm in Cleveland. Two teams that we've learned not to underestimate over the years currently own byes in the AL.

Wild Card Series matchups

• Blue Jays (6) at Mariners (3)
• White Sox (5) at Yankees (4)

Just missed: Athletics (1.5 games back), Twins (2 games)

How about those White Sox? After setting the mark for worst single-season record in MLB history by going 41-121 two years ago, the South Siders are currently in playoff position and coming off a thrilling walk-off victory over the Tigers. With a lineup led by slugger Munetaka Murakami -- who had to exit Friday's game against Detroit due to a right hamstring injury -- and a pitching staff headlined by early Cy Young Award candidate Davis Martin, Chicago would meet the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Series in the Bronx if the season ended today.

The other AL Wild Card matchup would be a rematch of last fall’s AL Championship Series between the Blue Jays and Mariners. That was an epic seven-game series that featured many incredible moments, including a huge go-ahead homer late in Game 6 by Eugenio Suárez and the decisive blow, a three-run shot by George Springer to put the Jays ahead late in Game 7.

Dropped out since last month: Athletics, Tigers

The A’s opened the season with four consecutive losses, but then reeled off wins in 17 of their next 27 games to vault themselves into first place in the AL West.

A young and exciting club, the A’s rode a historic on-base streak by slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz for a time, but they’ve dropped four straight and 16 of 26 games this month to fall out of the postseason field.

It’s been a rough time for the Tigers, too. Since reigning two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal went on the injured list on May 4, Detroit has lost 19 of 23, averaging 2.6 runs per game over that stretch.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Byes: Braves (1), Dodgers (2)

The Dodgers are right where they’re expected to be, with the two-time defending World Series champs currently holding one of the two best records in the NL. The Braves own the best record in the Majors after a resounding answer -- at least over the first two months of the season -- to the question of whether Atlanta would bounce back after going 76-86 and finishing fourth in the NL East last year.

Wild Card Series matchups

• Cardinals (6) at Brewers (3)
• Diamondbacks (5) at Padres (4)

Just missed: Cubs (0.5 games back), Reds (1.5 games), Pirates (1.5 games), Phillies (2 games)

If the season ended today, the Cardinals would face off against the division-rival Brewers for the first time since the 2011 NL Championship Series, which St. Louis won en route to winning the World Series. The Cards took over the final NL Wild Card spot with a win over the Cubs at Busch Stadium on Friday night.

And in another playoff series involving division rivals, it would be the D-backs vs. the Padres -- a postseason matchup we’ve never seen before. Arizona is seeking a return to October baseball for the first time since making a surprise run to the World Series in 2023, and San Diego -- a Wild Card entrant in four of the past six years -- is still searching for that elusive first World Series championship.

Dropped out since last month: Cubs, Reds

The Cubs have been one of the streakiest teams in recent memory, putting together multiple 10-game winning streaks so far this season and also recently snapping a 10-game losing streak. That 10-game skid dropped the North Siders out of the playoff picture as it currently stands.

The Reds, meanwhile, have been pretty streaky themselves -- they opened the season with wins in 20 of their first 31 games, but since then, Cincinnati has gone 9-16.