Hopefully, you didn’t blink. Because if you did, you might have missed it. That’s right, we’re already more than a month into the 2026 season, and we’ve already witnessed some tremendous baseball.
There’s still a long way to go until a champion is crowned this fall, but the one-month mark is a good time to check in on how things are shaping up around the Majors. And while some teams -- we’re looking at you, Dodgers -- are right where they’re expected to be, there are several early-season surprises.
Here’s a breakdown of what the postseason field would look like if the season ended today.
(Here's a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook.)
American League
Byes: Yankees (1) and A’s (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Tigers (6) at Guardians (3)
Mariners (5) at Rays (4)
Just missed: Orioles, Rangers (each 1/2 game back)
The “run-it-back” Yankees are right where they expect to be despite some wondering whether they did enough to bolster the roster this past offseason. The club currently sharing “bye” status with the Yanks in the AL? The A’s, a young team that has been impressive in the early going. After opening the season with losses in five of their first six games and seven of their first 10, the A’s have reeled off wins in 14 of their past 21 contests and sit atop a wide-open AL West.
The Guardians, who always seem to be a threat to surprise us until we learn not to be surprised by Cleveland’s success, are atop the AL Central and currently occupy the No. 3 seed one month into the 2026 campaign. If the season ended now, the Guards would face the division rival Tigers, whom Cleveland topped for the AL Central crown last year after erasing the largest deficit to win a division in MLB history (15 1/2 games).
And the top two AL Wild Card teams at the moment, the Rays and Mariners, would face off for the right to take on the Yankees in the AL Division Series. The M’s are hungry after coming oh so close to reaching the first World Series in franchise history last fall, and Tampa Bay is looking to get back to the postseason after a pair of fourth-place finishes in the AL East the past two years.
Division Series matchups
Mariners (5) or Rays (4) at Yankees (1)
Tigers (6) or Guardians (3) at A’s (2)
The Yankees won the same number of games -- 94 -- as the AL East champion Blue Jays last year, and this year, the Bronx Bombers are vowing not to allow a tiebreaker to deny them a division title. So far, so good, as the Yanks lead the Majors in home runs (48) and ERA (3.11) -- and that’s before they’ve even gotten ace Gerrit Cole and star left-hander Carlos Rodón back off the injured list.
The A’s, meanwhile, are planning on shocking the baseball world and carrying their division lead over the long term. If they reach the postseason this fall, it would be their first playoff appearance since the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Led by slugging catcher Shea Langeliers and reigning AL Rookie of the Year (and king of the base on balls so far in 2026) Nick Kurtz, the Athletics are poised to make things interesting out West.
National League
Byes: Braves (1) and Dodgers (2)
Wild Card Series matchups
Cardinals (6) at Reds (3)
Cubs (5) at Padres (4)
Just missed: Brewers and D-backs (each 1.5 games back)
One of the big questions entering this season was how the Braves would respond after a disappointing 2025 in which they missed the postseason for the first time since 2017. Well, so far, the answer has been a resounding “We’re back.” Atlanta currently enjoys the best record in baseball, at 22-10. That’s even better than the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers, who are right where they expect to be as they pursue a three-peat.
Another club trying to rebound from a disappointing stretch is the Cardinals, who currently hold the sixth seed in the NL. St. Louis dealt third baseman Nolan Arenado to Arizona in the offseason as it continues to remake itself into what it hopes will be a contender soon. The Cards, who reached the playoffs in 16 of the first 23 years since the turn of the century, haven’t been to the postseason since 2022. But they’re off to a great start in ’26, at 18-13 through April.
The remainder of the NL field looks pretty familiar. The Cubs, Padres and Reds were all Wild Card entrants into last fall’s postseason, with the Reds being swept in the NL Wild Card Series by the Dodgers and the Cubs defeating the Padres in their Wild Card Series for Chicago’s first playoff series victory since 2017. If the season ended today, the North Siders would face off against San Diego in the Wild Card Series once again. And if the season ended today, the Cubs and Padres would have just faced off at Petco Park.
Division Series matchups
Cubs (5) or Padres (4) at Braves (1)
Cardinals (6) or Reds (3) at Dodgers (2)
Under new manager Walt Weiss, Atlanta seems to have righted the ship after a fourth-place finish (76-86) in the NL East last year. With the star power up and down the Braves’ roster, it seemed as though it was only a matter of time and health. One month doesn’t make a season, but Atlanta is off to a great start in its quest to return to October baseball.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are trying to accomplish something that’s never been done in the long and storied history of National League baseball: win a third consecutive World Series title. Anything can and does happen in this game, but if there’s anything that seems to be a certainty, it’s that the road to the 2026 Fall Classic will go through Dodger Stadium.
Who’s out from last year?
Blue Jays, Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox
Some prominent clubs are on the outside looking in at the one-month checkpoint. That includes the reigning AL Champs, who were two outs away from winning it all last year. The Blue Jays got off to a hot start, winning four of their first five games. But then Toronto lost 12 of its next 15. Since falling to 7-13 on Apr. 18, the Jays have won seven of 11. And their record at the end of April last year? 14-16.
Toronto’s rival in the AL East, the Red Sox, have undergone some massive changes early in the 2026 campaign -- Boston parted ways with manager Alex Cora after seven seasons and a 10-17 start in ’26. Chad Tracy, who was managing the organization’s Triple-A club in Worcester, took over as interim manager along with several new members of the coaching staff.
On the NL side of the ledger, two perennial postseason contenders currently find themselves outside the playoff picture -- the Brewers and Phillies.
Milwaukee was in this position a year ago at this time, too. Remember when the Yankees outscored the Brewers in a season-opening sweep of the Crew, 36-14? Well, on this day last year, Milwaukee was 16-15 after beginning the year with a slew of injuries. As they enter May this year, the Brewers are 16-14 and dealing with injury issues. It all worked out pretty well for them in 2025, when they won an MLB-high 97 games.
The Phillies, like the Red Sox, have undergone significant changes after faltering to a 9-19 record to open the season. Philadelphia parted ways with manager Rob Thomson, installing bench coach Don Mattingly as interim manager as the Phils seek a fifth consecutive playoff appearance. With a sweep of the Giants this week, including a pair of walk-off wins in a doubleheader on Thursday, Mattingly has begun his tenure at the helm in Philly with three wins. With the star power in that lineup and on that pitching staff, it would be a surprise if the Phillies aren’t right there in the AL East race at the end.
Who’s new this year?
A’s, Braves, Cardinals, Rays
While the Braves are only a year removed from the postseason, the other three clubs in this group have been waiting for some time.
The A’s are a young and exciting team that is fun to dream on. With talents like Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler, you can see this group pushing that team forward ahead of schedule and getting it to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
The Cardinals have also gotten younger since their last playoff appearance in 2022. With players like Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt -- who each launched a first-inning homer off Pirates superstar Paul Skenes on Thursday -- leading the way, there could be some exciting baseball in St. Louis this year.
And last, but certainly not least, the Rays -- for a time, a perennial postseason contender -- haven’t tasted playoff baseball since 2023. But with a lineup featuring Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Chandler Simpson, as well as a pitching staff getting strong early-season contributions from Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen, watch out for Tampa Bay in a stacked AL East.