Where the trade market stands in wake of Skubal deal
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As the clock ticked toward the penultimate day prior to the Trade Deadline, the action was starting to finally get underway.
Luis Castillo to the White Sox. Lane Thomas and Bailey Falter to the Braves. Camilo Doval to the Pirates. It was three more deals than many believed would take place prior to Sunday, when teams around the league were certain to start getting more serious in their respective discussions. At least that was the hope.
Then, at 11:31 p.m. ET, the dam broke and #TradeSzn was officially underway.
The Dodgers were trading for Tarik Skubal.
Los Angeles agreed to send outfielder Zyhir Hope (Dodgers’ No. 5 prospect and No. 25 overall according to MLB Pipeline), right-hander River Ryan (Dodgers No. 7, No. 68 overall) and RHP Brady Smith (Dodgers No. 17) to Detroit for two-plus months of Skubal’s services, making the Dodgers the clear favorite to win their third straight World Series title.
Skubal, of course, will be a free agent after the season, but if the Dodgers can become the first team since the 1998-2000 Yankees to win three championships in a row, the price will have been well worth it.
Although the Dodgers were always considered one of the favorites to land Skubal, many executives around the league believed the Rays and Brewers were going to put their best foot forward in an effort to land the southpaw, using their deep, talented farm systems to challenge the defending champs for the best pitcher on the market.
A handful of executives that we spoke with Saturday even believed that either Milwaukee or Tampa Bay would ultimately land Skubal. In the end, the Dodgers did what they usually do: they won.
“The Dodgers told us, ‘Nah, not this time,’” said an AL executive who had predicted Skubal to the Rays earlier in the day. “It’s the same that they said [in 2021] when they got [Max] Scherzer and [Trea] Turner.”
There were others, of course, who thought the Dodgers would not be denied.
“If the Dodgers are determined to get Skubal, they will,” an AL executive said hours before the deal went down. “Their system is deep and Andrew [Friedman] can be as aggressive as anyone when he wants a player.”
Suddenly, with one trade involving four players, what had been shaping up as another pre-Deadline weekend slog had turned into a 40-hour race to counter the Dodgers’ momentous move.
For most of Saturday, the big news had been the Pirates’ acquisition of Doval, the one-time All-Star reliever who has struggled since the Yankees traded for him a year ago. Later in the evening, the Braves acquired Thomas and Falter from the Royals. A half hour later, the White Sox made a big move, acquiring Castillo from the Mariners for righty Seranthony Dominguez, outfielder Nolan Jones and catcher Boston Smith, adding a much-needed veteran starter to Chicago’s rotation.
Things were finally moving, though the consensus among executives was that until Skubal was traded, the market would remain mostly stagnant.
“It will be a very late market,” an AL executive predicted. “Skubal holds it all up, and once that goes, it gets hectic.”
Now that Skubal is on his way to the West Coast, how hectic will things get on Sunday? The Rays, Brewers, Cubs, Braves and Yankees -- teams that had varying interest in Skubal -- will now look to pivot to other starting pitchers. None will have the type of resumé that Skubal brings to Los Angeles, but with Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, Casey Mize, Foster Griffin, Robbie Ray and Freddy Peralta among the starters headed for free agency this fall, those half-dozen rentals should be among those to move by Monday’s Deadline.
As of Saturday, sellers continued to hold high asking prices that buyers simply weren’t willing to pay. The closer we get to Monday, those prices should come down to some extent, while the urgency to add will rise for contenders. In other words, deals will happen one way or another, even if some of them go into the final hours.
“All sides are unrealistic and irrational, but the time is coming where we will find out what everyone is willing to do,” an AL executive said. “I think there were something like 40-plus trades last year during Deadline week. My guess is that it will be comparable this year.”
In fact, there were 35 trades completed on the day of the Trade Deadline last July 31, with a total of 50 deals going down in the final 31 hours leading up to 6 p.m.
“So far it seems like every other Deadline,” another AL executive said a few hours before the Skubal deal. “Lots of conversations, teams chasing big concepts – and by Monday, we will be surprised both by what does and doesn’t transpire.”
As for some of the controllable players that have been discussed around the league -- think Mason Miller, Hunter Greene, Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Zach Neto, Otto Lopez, Hunter Goodman and CJ Abrams, for example -- the consensus is that not many will be dealt by Monday, but rather discussed more seriously during the offseason.
“I can see the Angels moving the arms [Detmers and Soriano], but not Neto,” an AL exec said. “I think the controllable group mostly gets moved in the offseason.”
Despite being only 2 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot, the 53-28 Tigers decided that trading Skubal was the most prudent long-term approach for the club. The defending AL champion Blue Jays, who at 52-59 are only 3.5 games behind that final spot after winning their third game in a row, will have to make a similar call in the next 24 hours.
With Gausman, George Springer and Shane Bieber all headed for free agency and Daulton Varsho and Jeff Hoffman drawing interest, Toronto will have to decide whether to buy, sell, or attempt a hybrid approach that many other bubble teams are trying to navigate.
“The congested AL race is unprecedented, where teams that are hovering around .500 are one hot streak away from sitting in pole position to get a bye in the first round of the playoffs,” an NL executive said. “Between the stars rumored to be available who could meaningfully impact the playoff picture, and teams run by chronically creative and aggressive GMs, this Trade Deadline stands to be highly entertaining.”
Other predictions from executives around the league:
The Brewers “will push some chips into the center” and make some acquisitions to try taking down the Dodgers.
The Yankees “will get a catcher, but it may not be the one they really wanted.” Two execs tabbed Tyler Stephenson as New York’s catching answer while another predicted Adley Rutschman winds up in the Bronx.
Trades won’t take place strictly between buyers and sellers. “It’s been the growing trend,” an exec said. “Buyers are having to embrace the reality that they have to do business with each other if they want to expand their pool of players that could improve their teams.”
The Skubal deal may have caught people by surprise Saturday night, but Detroit’s decision to trade him was not a shock to anybody who had been paying attention. Are there surprises in store between now and Monday’s Deadline?
“I’m sure some unexpected stuff will pop up,” said an AL executive, seemingly referring to last year’s stunner that saw Miller dealt to San Diego. “Never sleep on the Padres.”