Predicting the season ahead as Padres chase 3rd straight playoff berth

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PEORIA, Ariz. -- The Padres are coming off consecutive postseason appearances. If they can make it three straight in 2026, it would mark the first time in franchise history.

But their goals are bigger than that. Yes, they’d like to get back to October. That’s step No. 1. But, man, they’d rather it not end the way it has the past couple of seasons.

The Padres’ core remains intact -- a core led by Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. They addressed some of the questions on the fringes of their offense. And their pitching staff -- despite some question marks in the rotation -- has serious upside.

“Feel really good about where all the guys are, leading into Opening Day,” said manager Craig Stammen. “It was a great spring.”

Now the real games start. Here’s a look at what lies ahead …

What Needs to Go Right?

Every year, every team in baseball can point to healthy starting pitching as the biggest thing it needs for a successful season. It’s true for everyone. But, trust me, it’s more true for these Padres.

This rotation has upside. It also has very little depth. And nearly all of the pitchers they’ll be counting on this year come with some level of injury concern, on the wrong side of 30 years old. That’s a volatile mix.

Joe Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Michael King dealt with a nerve issue and a knee injury last year, which cost him half the season. Nick Pivetta, last year’s stalwart, dealt with arm fatigue early in camp.

Again, there’s plenty of upside here. Pivetta, King and Musgrove all have the potential to finish top 10 in Cy Young voting.

If they’re healthy.

Great Unknown

“A $20 million player for pennies on the dollar,” was how Machado described the Padres’ signing of Nick Castellanos earlier this spring.

And, no, Castellanos isn’t the player he was when he signed with Philadelphia four years ago. But the Padres aren’t the ones paying out that contract. They’re only paying the league minimum, after Castellanos was released by the Phillies just before Spring Training got underway.

A year ago, the Padres’ offense was imbalanced. It didn’t slug enough. It didn’t hit lefties enough. Well, Castellanos has averaged 23 homers across the past three seasons, and he mashes lefties.

On top of that, he might be a legitimate option at first base -- maybe not the regular starter, but capable of backing up when needed. Most importantly, Castellanos has seemingly embraced his new role in his new clubhouse. After a tumultuous ending in Philly, he touted the merits of a “fresh start.”

Team MVP Will Be ... Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis starred at the World Baseball Classic, putting his trademark flair on full display. Then he returned to Padres camp last week with a boyish exuberance for the season.

“We’re bringing the same energy,” he said. “Let’s go.”

There has been much debate about where Tatis might hit in the lineup. There’s been plenty of discussion about whether he’ll be able to tap into more of his power.

But no one denies Tatis’ skill set. If he puts it all together in 2026, he won’t merely be the Padres’ MVP. He might mount a challenge for the award in the National League.

Team Cy Young Will Be ... Mason Miller

As noted above, any of the Padres’ three frontline starters could work his way into the Cy Young mix. But the most dominant pitcher on staff is Mason Miller. That’s not even a question.

I’m not sure Miller gets enough credit for how dominant he was down the stretch last season. After being traded from the A’s to the Padres, he struck out 45 of the 83 hitters he faced (54%). As if to prove it wasn’t a fluke, he got better as the stage got bigger. He punched out eight of nine in the playoffs and 10 of 14 at the World Baseball Classic.

There’s truly no pitcher in baseball like Mason Miller.

Bold Prediction: The Padres’ bullpen will be one of the best in baseball history

Miller has the ninth -- and that’s a pretty good place to start. But this ‘pen is as deep as it is dominant.

Adrian Morejon is one of the best lefty weapons in the sport. Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada would challenge for the closer role on other teams. Beyond them, David Morgan, Bradgley Rodriguez and Wandy Peralta should cover the middle innings. And there’s even more depth on the fringes and in the Minors.

A year ago, the Padres made baseball history as the first team to send three relievers to an All-Star Game. Then, they added Miller at the Trade Deadline, and their bullpen might be even better.