Ranking the Top 10 pitching staffs in baseball

Pitching is precarious, which means predicting pitching is precarious. (Almost as precarious as trying to say, “Predicting pitching is precarious” five times fast.)

But let’s do it anyway, in our annual look at the top 10 pitching staffs* in MLB, following Friday’s announcement of all 30 team’s Opening Day starters.

*All the usual disclaimers about us not knowing who is going to be fortunate enough to stay healthy or whose bullpen is going to blow up apply. Note that we've listed the pitchers projected to throw the most innings this season (regardless of current injury condition). But these projections (and injuries) are always subject to change.

1) Dodgers

Top starters: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Emmet Sheehan

Key relievers: Edwin Díaz, Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Jack Dreyer

The Dodgers won the 2024 World Series without a rotation and the 2025 World Series without a bullpen. There’s certainly enough talent here to have both (and, yes, win yet another World Series). But will health cooperate?

As tends to be the case, the Dodgers will use their depth to manage workloads. It seems like Snell seems to be in “Wake me up in September” mode at this point in his career. Glasnow has never pitched enough innings in a full season to qualify for the ERA title. And maybe Yamamoto and Ohtani don’t actually pitch enough innings to challenge for the NL Cy Young Award.

Still, it’s a loaded group, and the Dodgers sure know how to employ it. Meanwhile, the bullpen should be better this season, as the Dodgers decided to spend some money for once (that’s a joke, folks) and bring in an elite closer in Díaz. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest the Dodgers will be good this year (that’s another joke).

2) Mariners

Top starters: Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller

Key relievers: Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo, Jose A. Ferrer

Seattle’s staff is undoubtedly, annually aided by the most pitcher-friendly home ballpark in baseball. And that was especially true in a 2025 season in which the club had a 3.28 ERA at home (third-best in MLB) and a 4.50 mark on the road (tied for 22nd). So while this might prove to be the stingiest staff in the sport in terms of overall runs allowed, I couldn’t go so far as to put them at No. 1.

All that said: Yes, the Mariners have the makings of a positive pitching staff, no matter where they happen to be playing on a given night.

In the rotation, Woo was one of the most consistent starters in MLB last season prior to a late-season pectoral injury. Gilbert has been at least 10% better than league average in three of the last four seasons. Castillo could return to his All-Star form but is, at worst, a bit better than league average. And while Kirby has seen regression in effectiveness over the last two years, his command makes him at the very least a palatable back-of-the-rotation option.

The Mariners typically piece together good bullpens, and having Muñoz’s elite stuff and deceptive motion in the ninth makes for a great base to work with. While Brash, Speier and Bazardo were all stellar setup options in 2025, a key to 2026 will be what the M’s get from high-octane lefty Jose A. Ferrer, who they thought highly enough of to give up Top 100 prospect Harry Ford in a trade with the Nationals.

3) Phillies

Top starters: Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter

Key relievers: Jhoan Duran, José Alvarado, Brad Keller, Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks

The Phils’ worthiness for this list is extremely contingent on the health and effectiveness of Wheeler following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Because his specific type of TOS comes with a greater predictability of outcome and the reports have been positive from Phillies camp, we’ll go with the notion that Wheeler can return to form rather quickly and lead a rotation -- that is now without Ranger Suarez -- but still has a lot of talent, especially if Nola can return to form after battling injuries last year.

The other X-factor here is the club’s top pitching prospect, Painter, whose talent has been teased for so long that you forget he’s only 22. His power pitching profile has been compared to that of a young Justin Verlander.

With Keller added to a bullpen anchored by one of the game’s absolute best closers in Duran, the Phillies profile well in the back end, as strange as that might sound to some who still associate them with the blowups of bullpens past.

4) Red Sox

Top starters: Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo

Key relievers: Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, Greg Weissert, Justin Slaten, Zack Kelly

There are questions about what the Red Sox came out with on the offensive end this offseason, but they were adamant about improving their pitching beyond AL Cy Young Award runner-up Crochet and appear to have done so.

It will be interesting to see how their imported guile guys, Suarez and Gray, both adopt to the ABS Challenge System and what will likely be a tighter strike zone, but obviously they’ve got a lot of success under their belts. And in a trade for the 28-year-old Oviedo, the Red Sox added a big body with big extension and the potential to be an important piece.

The Sox didn’t let Chapman even reach free agency after his ridiculous age-37 season, and he and Whitlock anchor a bullpen that might be a little light from a depth standpoint but should benefit, workload-wise, from an improved starting picture.

By the way, as of this writing, FanGraphs’ projections have Boston leading the Majors in pitching WAR.

5) Tigers

Top starters: Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Justin Verlander

Key relievers: Kenley Jansen, Will Vest, Tyler Holton, Kyle Finnegan, Drew Anderson

The “pitching chaos” plan beyond Skubal was cute and fun and interesting in 2024 but a lot less cute and fun and interesting in 2025, particularly when Detroit was in the midst of an historic division collapse.

So big ups to the front office for the less chaotic formula they’ve handed A.J. Hinch for 2026. For one, Skubal is still here! That’s good! And backing him with the durable, groundball-yielding Valdez makes for one of the best one-two punches in baseball. We’ll see how many punches the 43-year-old Verlander has left in him and if his return to Motown can be a true feel-good story. (His second half with the Giants last year indicates it can). And while Flaherty and Mize were inconsistent in 2025, they have the pedigree to be something more than just back-end filler.

The bullpen has more experience to handle high-leverage situations now, with Finnegan brought back and Jansen brought aboard to aid Vest, Holton and Co.

We don’t know how much longer Skubal will be a Tiger. But he’s here now, and that’s a great start for this staff.

6) Pirates

Top starters: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones

Key relievers: Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto, Isaac Mattson, Mason Montgomery, Justin Lawrence

How high are the Pirates’ internal expectations for their pitching staff? Well, they allowed the fifth-fewest runs of any team in MLB last year … and changed their pitching coach! So obviously, they think a lot of the talent here and see a path to even more pitching prominence.

Obviously, when you have one of the two best pitchers in the world atop your staff in Skenes, that’s a really good start. The Buccos did deal from their stash of arms but kept the underrated Keller. Jones is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he and Chandler and Ashcraft give the Pirates a ton of upside beyond Skenes, who, remember, is only 23 and could -- gulp -- keep getting better (i.e. going deeper into games). And there’s more coming in the Pirates’ strong pitching pipeline.

The bullpen is more of a question mark, but it has added two of the game’s hardest-throwing lefties in Soto and Montgomery.

A concern here is defense, as the Pirates knowingly compromised it in an effort to add more power to their lineup in the offseason. But I still expect this to be a stingy staff.

7) Yankees

Top starters: Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren

Key relievers: David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Fernando Cruz, Tim Hill, Paul Blackburn

The Yanks, led by Fried, are just going to have to make do while waiting for Cole, Rodón and Clarke Schmidt to return. But better to have those guys waiting in the wings than what happened last year, when injuries really raided this staff. And after what we saw from Schlittler down the stretch last season, there’s a lot to love about his potential, and he and Luis Gil and Warren all have room to grow. The X-factor is Ryan Weathers, who lights up radar guns and imaginations. He never put it all together with the Padres and Marlins, but he’s in really good hands with Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake.

The Yankees’ offseason approach to the bullpen was a little odd, letting Devin Williams and Luke Weaver defect to Queens and doing little to replace them. But Bednar, Doval and Cruz are all solid enough to land the Yanks in the top 10 in FanGraphs’ relief WAR projections, and this club usually figures out how to piece together a quality bullpen by season’s end.

Long story short: Cole is coming back, and so the Yankees could have a terrifying rotation before long.

8) Brewers

Top starters: Brandon Woodruff, Chad Patrick, Jacob Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, Kyle Harrison

Key relievers: Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, Angel Zerpa, Jared Koenig, Aaron Ashby

When assessing the Brewers’ pitching staff, we must weigh the departure of staff ace Freddy Peralta in trade against the knowledge that, no matter who departs this team, it always seems to find a way to keep opponents from crossing home plate.

Though Woodruff dealt with a lat issue and Priester a wrist issue in camp, they still can front what ought to be a strong rotation, even without Peralta. You’ve got the Miz Kid, Misiorowski, entering his first full season, and young Logan Henderson is widely touted as a breakout candidate. The bullpen, which was one of the best in MLB last year and has added groundball machine Zerpa, projects as top-five unit going into 2026.

Really, it’s not about individual names but the collective whole of a club that routinely develops quality pitching internally or identifies it externally. And being backed by an elite defense sure doesn’t hurt, either. So the Brew Crew belongs somewhere in the top 10.

9) Blue Jays

Top starters: Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, Shane Bieber

Key relievers: Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García, Tyler Rogers, Louis Varland, Brendon Little, Tommy Nance

When looking at ERA, expected ERA and FanGraphs’ WAR tallies, the Blue Jays ranked anywhere from 19th to 22nd in MLB last year. But they probably upgraded their pitching staff more than any other team this offseason.

I’m not as certain as the Jays are about Cease proving to be one of the absolute best pitchers in the sport with consistency (nor do I have $200 million around to express my confidence in anything), but there’s no doubt he has great stuff. Ponce could join the expanding list of pitchers who go off to the Asian leagues and come back with a better sense of themselves and their repertoire.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that Yesavage is already on the shelf with a shoulder issue, and Bieber has experienced continued troubles post-Tommy John. Also, Gausman is 35, and the bullpen, which is bringing Tyler Rogers to Rogers Centre, projects more in the good, rather than great, realm for now.

So I’m iffy on the Jays’ pitching staff, overall. I do think it deserves to be in the top 10 for now, but the hope is that the Yesavage injury is not the first sign of an overall October hangover here.

10) Mets

Top starters: Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga

Key relievers: Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, Luis García, A.J. Minter

The Mets planned to orient their offseason around run-prevention. There was some mixed messaging there with the defensive chances they’re taking on the infield corners, but there’s no doubt that they’re strong up the middle defensively now with the additions of Marcus Semien and Luis Robert Jr., and in a much better position at the top of the rotation with Peralta.

If McLean becomes what his initial big-league exposure insists he can become, the Mets have as good a 1-2 punch atop the rotation as anybody. Jonah Tong is another source of upside, as is Christian Scott, who is coming back from Tommy John.

There could also be some positive regression to the mean for Manaea and Peterson, both of whom were above-average in 2024 and below it in 2025 (though Manaea’s spring velocity didn’t exactly inspire confidence). Holmes is entering his second season stretched out as a starter, and that could lead to more consistency. Oh, and fun fact: Tobias Myers was once traded for Junior Caminero. Is he that good? Absolutely not. But he is definitely capable of delivering meaningful innings in a swing role.

So the Mets might have the makings of a very good rotation. The bullpen is more problematic without Edwin Diaz anchoring it, though the peripherals insist Williams was much better than his raw numbers indicate last year, and he’s obviously been a force before. And not that it matters for a preseason ranking, but it would surprise absolutely no one if the Mets are aggressive in adding more pitching if they’re in it at the Deadline.

Honorable mentions: The Rangers deserve a spot on the list if you can guarantee Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi stay healthy, but I don’t know how anyone could guarantee that and sleep at night. … The Royals have a really good operation for piecing together quality pitching staffs, and Cole Ragans’ ability to post up for 30-plus starts is their X-factor. … The Braves have a ton of injury risk baked into their pitching equation and have already dealt with significant health setbacks this spring, but a Spencer Strider bounceback and a rebuilt back end of the bullpen could merit inclusion on the list before long. … The Reds might have been a justifiable top-10 pick prior to the Hunter Greene injury. … The Padres’ rotation is potentially problematic, but they merit a mention here on the strength of a bullpen anchored by maybe the best reliever on the planet in Mason Miller.

Honestly, there are probably 10 teams you could put in “honorable mentions” that are all kind of grouped together, with their fate hinging on health and other X-factors. So don’t be offended if yours isn’t mentioned!