All stats through Monday's games.
Aaron Judge has 16 home runs this season, just one behind White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami for the American League lead and four behind Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber for the Major League lead. He’s third in the big leagues with a 173 OPS+. He’s second in Statcast’s Batting Run Value metric. You’re stunned to hear about this level of success from a player who has won back-to-back AL MVP Awards and three of the past four.
None of this is news, really. Judge’s place in history was assured years ago. This is now looking like his 10th consecutive excellent-to-all-time-great season in a row, dating back to his 52-homer, AL Rookie of the Year breakout campaign from 2017. He is, and we say this without hyperbole, the greatest right-handed hitter to ever play American or National League ball, and if you’d like to point out that his late-career, likely-declining years aren’t baked into his stats yet, well, he’s the best-ever righty batter just through age 34, too.
Yet there’s something else in sight this season, too. With 16 homers through 48 team games, Judge is on pace for 54. Of course, “on pace for” stats in May are inherently dangerous. (No one thinks Cal Raleigh will always hit .161 or Shohei Ohtani will maintain a 0.82 ERA all season long, for example.) But assuming that Judge could top 50 homers isn’t exactly an incredibly unreasonable ask. After all, he’s already done it four times, including in each of the last two seasons and in three of the last four. (He probably would have done it in 2023 as well had he not missed more than a month with a toe injury.)
No one has done it five times.
Henry Aaron, for decades the all-time home run king, never had a 50-homer season. Barry Bonds, who usurped him atop the all-time leaderboard, did it just a single time. It’s happened only 54 times in total, by 34 players. Most of them did it just once; a handful, twice; and then Alex Rodriguez is the only one to do so exactly three times.
Judge, at the moment, stands as one of the very few to have four. It might not be a tie for very long.
Most 50-homer seasons
- 4: Judge
- 4: Babe Ruth
- 4: Sammy Sosa
- 4: Mark McGwire
Even setting aside “on pace” figures, the various remainder-of-season projection systems all have Judge as hitting an additional 31-40 homers. In other words, we might expect him to reach 50 by mid-September, at which point he’ll stand alone, again, atop another historic leaderboard, above other historic names. He’ll be the only hitter ever with five 50-homer seasons.
Maybe this won’t rise above the other accolades, like “hitting 62 homers in a season,” and “looking like he’ll be one of only six sluggers ever – all legends – to go 10-for-10 in 140 OPS+ or better seasons between age 25-34,” or, again, we cannot stress this enough, “being the greatest right-handed hitter to ever play American or National League ball.” But so far as feathers in your cap go, taking a step ahead of The Babe is a pretty good one.
Career Weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+), righty batters in AL/NL history
- 178: Judge
- 170: Rogers Hornsby
- 165: Mike Trout
- 157: McGwire
- 156: Jimmie Foxx
- 155: Dick Allen
- 154: Willie Mays
- 154: Frank Thomas
- 153: Frank Robinson
- 153: Manny Ramirez
- 153: Aaron
- 153: Hank Greenberg
Given that he’s done this so regularly, it’s not even necessarily a question of "Will he or won't he?" this summer, health permitting. It’s more about the fact that, having reached his 34th birthday in April, we’ll start to see any signs of decline.
The answer: You have to squint really hard. Maybe, sure, if you worry about batting average, as he’s hitting .266 after hitting .331 and .322 the previous two years, but we’re here to talk about “blasting 50 homers,” not worrying about a few extra singles here and there. (He’s hitting .293 in May, anyway.)
His strikeout rate is up a little, from 24% to 28%, which isn’t nothing, yet is also what he had in 2023, when he was excellent. The bat speed hasn’t slowed in any truly meaningful way. His hard-hit rate is elite, just outside the top 10; his barrels per batted ball rate is tied for fifth in the Majors.
The time will come when Judge slows down, because it comes for everyone. (Not literally slows down, of course, because his speed went from above-average to below-average several years ago.) But it doesn’t seem to be happening this year, and isn’t likely to come next year, either, which means the question here isn’t “Can Judge become the first hitter ever to have five 50-plus homer seasons.” The question is really "When will it happen?" Or perhaps it's, “Will we be talking about that sixth 50-plus homer season a year from now?”
Nothing is guaranteed. Sometimes you smash your toe into a wall and miss a month. There’s really not a safer prediction in baseball, though, than “Aaron Judge is going to hit a lot of homers.” He’s been doing it annually for a decade, now. Sooner than later, there will be another list he stands atop alone.