Greene on the rise in ’26 – but maybe not how you’d think

Riley Greene emerged as a big power bat for the Tigers in 2025, bashing 36 homers and driving in 111 runs en route to an American League All-Star selection and an AL Silver Slugger Award.

Two things seemed paramount for Greene to be even better in 2026: similar or improved power production, and a lot fewer strikeouts. Last season, Greene led the AL in K’s with 201.

Neither of those things appears to be happening. And yet, through the first 41 games of 2026, Greene is still on pace for the best offensive season of his career.

After going 2-for-3 with a double and two walks on Sunday against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium, Greene has an OPS of .907, the best of his career and the best among Tigers hitters. He enters play Monday with a .317/.418/.490 slash line, making him one of just four qualifying hitters with a batting average of .300 or better and an on-base percentage of at least .400. But with only four home runs so far and a still-too-high strikeout rate, Greene’s apparent breakout hasn’t happened like one might have thought.

Here’s how Greene is getting the job done in 2026.

All stats are entering Friday unless otherwise specified.

Less is more

It might seem counterintuitive in an era where home runs are king, but Greene -- despite his considerable power potential -- isn’t swinging for the fences as much this season.

In fact, he’s not swinging much at all.

Greene’s below-average 42.9% swing rate in 2026 represents a sizable decrease from 2025, when Greene swung at 52.6% of pitches. Only one qualifying hitter -- Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox -- has seen a larger decrease in swing rate than Greene’s 9.9% dip from 2025-26.

Greene’s 29.4% whiff rate remains high, accounting for his 47 strikeouts in just 41 games (he’s on pace for 185 K’s this year) but by swinging less overall, he’s chasing pitches out of the zone much less often. After having the third-worst increase in chase rate from 2024 to ’25 (8.1%), Greene’s 6.6% decrease from ’25 to ’26 is tied for the second best in MLB. It’s been quite the turnaround.

As a result, Greene’s walk rate has more than doubled from 2025 (7.0%) to ’26 (14.7%), to the point where he now ranks in the 89th percentile of qualifying hitters.

He’s still got more than 120 games to go, but if Greene can keep his on-base percentage north of .400, he’d be the first qualifying Tigers hitter to do so since ... Miguel Cabrera (.440) back in 2015. Talk about good company.

Adjusting at the plate

Greene has always been able to square up fastballs well, but his improvements against breaking pitches have helped him level up in 2026.

In his first four seasons in the big leagues, Greene batted .237 with a .441 slugging percentage against breaking stuff -- curveballs, sliders, sweepers and slurves. While those numbers were better than league average, Greene had a 37.8% whiff rate on them, well above the MLB mean of 32.9%.

This year? He’s hitting .385 (15-for-39) on breaking pitches with three doubles, two home runs, a .614 slugging percentage and a whiff rate of just 28.4%. According to Statcast, Greene’s power numbers should be even better: His expected slugging percentage on breaking stuff is .705, ranking below only Yordan Alvarez (.784) and Bryce Harper (.749) among hitters with 40+ PA ending on breaking pitches.

When Greene has struggled, it’s come on offspeed pitches such as changeups -- he’s 5-for-33 (.152) in at-bats ending on offspeed stuff in 2026. But with his .356 average on fastballs and his dominance against breaking pitches, Greene is well set up for success.

That’s evidenced by his quality-of-contact metrics, including career highs in expected wOBA (.385), hard-hit rate (52.0%) and launch angle sweet-spot rate (40.8%).

With his pulled-air rate down a few ticks from 2025, that hasn’t resulted in nearly as much power as previous seasons: Greene is on pace for just 16 homers, although that number can change considerably with a brief hot streak this early in the year.

Despite that, he appears to have found a recipe for sustained success at the plate. If Greene can keep it going, he’s on track to be the linchpin of the Tigers’ lineup in 2026.