Where 3 top free-agent outfielders might fit best

By Mike Petriello | November 13, 2025

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Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham and Kyle Tucker have something in common, beyond being left-handed hitters who are the clear top three outfielders available on the free-agent market. (At least if we’re considering Kyle Schwarber to be the designated hitter he really is.)

They’re tied together by this, too: All three of them are coming off 2025 seasons in which they had some really, really big splits between playing at home and playing on the road. But that’s where the similarities end, because those splits weren’t all in the same direction – one was better at home, two were better away. Nor were they consistent even within the same home park, because Bellinger and Grisham were Yankee teammates, yet one of them was far better away from the Bronx.

It is, really, kind of weird. Mostly, it speaks to how important it is to understand ballpark effects at places like Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium, and how they don’t affect every hitter equally – and how that might change evaluations of teams potentially interested in signing them.

Here's what you need to know about what happened with each of these three lefties, and where they might fit best in 2026 and beyond:

Bellinger

The standard bearer for “lefty batter who hit better in Yankee Stadium.”

Bellinger’s entire career has been a topsy-turvy ride that’s somewhat difficult to evaluate:

Got all that? It’s been a journey. For all of the lefty bats who come to New York and are breathlessly talked about as candidates to take advantage of Yankee Stadium's right field "short porch" before not actually doing that at all -- like Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo -- Bellinger did … exactly that.

At home, he hit something like Soto. On the road, it was more like Miguel Vargas.

That’s a pretty massive split, and it’s somewhat the opposite of what happened in 2024, to a lesser extent, when he was better away from Wrigley Field than he was at home, in part because the (un)Friendly Confines played as one of baseball’s most difficult parks for lefty batters. (Keep that in mind, because it’s going to come up again with Tucker.)

What’s happening here can be explained a little by Bellinger’s profile, because for all the obvious value he provides, he’s also not exactly the big, prototypical slugger, either. His bat speed ranks in just the 20th percentile and his hard-hit rate merely in the 26th percentile, which are well below-average numbers. There’s more than one way to succeed, clearly. That’s just not his way.

Because of that, he’s the kind of player who might be more subject to park effects, as opposed to the Judges and Sotos of the world who simply mash everywhere. Bellinger gets the most out of what he has, but it’s going to look a lot better in a favorable park.

As far as what he has, well, the spray chart looks exactly like how you think it would. He hasn’t hit an opposite-field homer in more than two years.

Interestingly, though, it’s not only that, because Bellinger also made quite a bit more contact at home, striking out just 11% of the time compared to 16% on the road. (Both marks are excellent.) Whether that’s a fluke or a real approach change because of the short porch is hard to say. Either way, staying in a park that’s good for lefty hitters seems very important for him – which might make it harder for teams like the Mariners or Giants, teams who might use his services, to convince him to come to their difficult-for-lefties parks.

Best (realistic) fits: Yankees, Phillies, Orioles, Reds, Astros, Blue Jays

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Grisham

A lefty-hitting Yankee who wasn’t actually as good in Yankee Stadium.

Grisham may or may not actually spend much time on the market, as he has until Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET to choose whether to accept the one-year qualifying offer from the Yankees. Given that he was a backup in 2024, and wasn’t exactly a standout at the end of his San Diego tenure, you’d think accepting a huge salary bump on the heels of a career year would be a no-brainer.

Maybe it is, because it’s hard to see teams surrendering Draft capital to provide him with a multi-year deal when it seems his days as a center fielder are nearing an end. Except ... there's this: Grisham hit worse in Yankee Stadium than on the road last year. A lot worse.

If Bellinger was “Soto at home and Vargas on the road,” then flip that right around here, because it’s almost a mirror image of what Bellinger did. It’s a truly incredible line for a lefty power hitter in the Bronx, and it’s the largest home-field deficit for a lefty Yankee in two decades, since Robinson Canó was a rookie back in 2005 – in the old (similarly dimensioned) stadium.

Yet unlike Bellinger, it’s not about a difference in contact, because Grisham’s strikeout rate was similar both at home and on the road.

Really, it’s hard to explain this one, because if contact rate isn’t different, you’d expect contact quality or type to be. Yet no matter if you look at hard-hit rate, barrel rate, launch angle or pulled-air rate, there just isn't much there. Plus, none of this happened in 2024, but it’s hard to compare that anyway, since Grisham didn’t really hit anywhere in '24.

In order to explain it, we have to get a little directional. Take hard-hit balls, those hit 95 mph or harder, and only those hit in the air. For our purposes, softly hit grounders just don’t matter here, because they don’t move the needle, and there wasn’t much home/road difference for Grisham on them anyway.

OK, so hard-hit and in-the-air. Take the most valuable ones, the hard-hit air balls that are also pulled.

That’s obviously better on the road, and not by a small amount. It’s because on those high-value balls, he hit them harder (104 mph to 101.8 mph) on the road, and so they went further, too (333 feet on the road, on average, to 293 feet at home).

So, that’s part of it – but also, who’s complaining about a slugging percentage of 1.964, right? It’s outstanding. If he hit like he did on the road everywhere, he’d be Juan Soto, and as great a year as Grisham had, he’s not Juan Soto. Instead, look at what happened on the hard-hit balls in the air that were not pulled, so to center or his opposite field …

Oh, no.

Among the 100+ players who had at least 30 hard-hit balls away from the pull side, that .343 slug is … dead last. Grisham put 35 hard-hit balls in the air to either center or left field at Yankee Stadium. He got just eight hits, six of which were singles. The lone double probably could have been pulled in for an out by a better defender. The one homer was crushed, but also was more or less a pulled ball, counting as a ‘straightaway’ shot by ever, ever so little.

Unlike the pull side, Grisham didn’t hit them harder or farther on the road. They just got swallowed up by Yankee Stadium’s deep left-field alley. There’s a decent chance this was a fluke, and it’s not a pattern. Some might say that about his season as a whole, though.

Best (realistic) fits: Astros, Phillies, Dodgers, Orioles, Reds

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Tucker

Imagine if he’d hit the market having played in a better hitter’s park – or fully healthy.

Tucker is widely expected A) to get the largest total contract of anyone in this free-agent class, and B) to not do so with the Cubs. That might be about Chicago’s returning lineup depth or their more burning need to add starting pitchers who can miss bats, but it might also be about this.

This didn’t really happen in Houston, where he had a nearly identical .866 OPS at home and an .874 mark on the road during his time with the Astros. He also played through a right hand injury for much of the summer, which tanked his overall stats after a blazing start, before missing much of September with a left calf issue. Weird year, in general. Since we’ve done the Soto comparison a lot, know this: That .923 road mark is almost identical to the .921 overall OPS Soto had this year. If he’d had a full season of that, the contract discussion might be a little different.

Because Tucker is more like a younger, better version of Bellinger (good at many things rather than elite at any one thing), with similarly average-to-slightly-below marks in bat speed and hard-hit rate, he’s also the type of player who might be more affected by ballpark than the big bombers of the world. It’s difficult to express how hard it was to hit in Wrigley in 2025; at one point, Tucker went nearly two months in May and June without a home-field home run.

On the other hand, looking at this trend, particularly given that he was perfectly fine at home early on, when the weather is colder, before falling apart, we’re tempted to write this off entirely as a product of the injuries and ensuing slump – as odd as that feels. (He didn’t play a home game in September, due to the calf.)

It’s true that Wrigley hasn’t been an easy place to hit lately. It’s also our best guess that for Tucker, this didn’t matter, and likely won’t matter. When healthy, he’s one of the best.

Best (realistic) fits: Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Mets, Blue Jays, Orioles

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