Draft Inbox: College RHPs? Projection for No. 1 Cholowsky?

6:17 PM UTC

Our 2026 Draft Top 100 list is freshly minted and we don’t know about you, but we can’t wait for next year’s amateur season to start so we can see how all these talented Draft hopefuls perform. For now, though, we can answer your questions about them, about the list, and about the Draft.

There’s a clear big 3 of college right handers at the top of this class. What separated Flukey from Flora and Peterson? – @IanBloss

We have just three college pitchers in the top 15 in Cameron Flukey (No. 9), Liam Peterson (No. 13) and Jackson Flora (No. 14), with the next one coming in at No. 24 (Gabe Gaeckle), and that’s it for the top 30. Keep in mind that a year ago, Jamie Arnold and Tyler Bremner were the only two college arms who ranked high. Liam Doyle and Kade Anderson came on in the spring, so don’t be surprised if this initial trio changes order or has company by the time we get to the Draft.

Truth be told, there really isn’t all that much separating the three right-handers you’re asking about. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if, say, Flora takes a huge step forward and ends up the best arm in the class. They could finish in any order, from the very top of the Draft and down to the end if they don’t perform. For now, though, Flukey has the edge because of his combination of a legitimate four-pitch mix and above-average control. It’s that command that puts him ahead of Peterson, who has impressive stuff but needs to keep improving his walk rate. Flora’s stuff is also close, though it’s three pitches, and he doesn’t have as much track record as a starter after pitching in relief as a freshman, then starting, but throwing just 75 innings, as a sophomore.

Pretending the Draft was today, will Roch Cholowsky go in with near certitude he'd go 2nd if he wasn't taken first? Will it be that level of leverage in talks? – @paulderdash1

I quoted a scouting director in the story that accompanied the Top 100 list, saying about who would go 1-1: “I think most teams, if they had to pick now, they would take Cholowsky.”

But for the sake of argument, if whoever gets the top pick opts to go in another direction, then it stands to reason that the No. 2 pick favorite would be the UCLA shortstop.

That being said, I don’t think that leads to him leveraging that when it comes time to negotiate a deal. In addition to all of his tools, Cholowsky’s makeup is off the charts. This is a guy who will play all year to put himself in the best position to be the No. 1 pick in the Draft while helping the Bruins win games. Last year’s bonus slot for the top pick was just over $11 million. No. 2 was $10.25 million, and those will go up in 2026. You’re asking if Cholowsky would tell the team wanting to take him No. 1 that he won’t sign unless he gets No. 2 slot (or whatever the No. 2 team is offering). I have to think the answer is no. If the No. 1 team wants to take him, making him the top pick in the Draft, and offers him, say, $9.5 million, he’s going to sign, get playing and get to the big leagues in a hurry.

If Justin Lebron were in the ‘24 or ‘25 class, where do you think he’d rank? – @AdrianWhiteSox

We have Lebron, the talented Alabama shortstop, at No. 3 on this list, but we did get feedback from some scouts that they wouldn’t be shocked if he played his way into No. 1 pick conversations. He’s really talented, with four plus tools. Looking at the 2025 list, he’d be compared with other shortstops, but of the high school variety. Both Ethan Holliday, who we had ranked No. 1, and Eli Willits, who went No. 1 overall to the Nationals, are also impressive. But Lebron has tools AND two years of performance in the SEC, with 18 homers and 17 steals in 2025. The combination of skillset and performance would put him at the top of last year’s list for me.

Placement on the 2024 list is a little more challenging because that class had some pretty serious college bats in it. I’m trying not to use hindsight too much here -- Nick Kurtz wouldn’t be No. 7, for example -- and the conversation probably starts around there. Lebron does come with some swing-and-miss concerns (24.2-percent K rate last year), just enough to keep him from the top of this group. I would probably put him behind Kurtz, but ahead of Braden Montgomery, at No. 8. I do think arguments could be made that he belongs higher because of the position he plays, compared to Kurtz or Jac Caglianone, but this feels like a pretty fair spot.