Draft industry poll: Top 10 prospects? Who will go No. 1?

44 minutes ago

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For the past few years, we’ve used this time of year to survey the scouting industry to try to get a lay of the land. It gives a snapshot of what those with a birdseye/national view of the Draft (including national crosscheckers, scouting directors, assistant general managers) think about the class overall.

This year, we’ve expanded the questionnaire a bit to dig a little deeper. Of course we’ve included questions about ranking the top of the class and who they think the White Sox will take with the top pick. But we’ve also included queries about things specific to this class, like who the best college hitter is after a clear top two, and who the best player is beyond what has become a consensus top six in the Draft, among others.

2026 MLB Draft presented by Nippon Express
July 11-12:

A total of 21 in the industry responded to the survey, giving us a pretty good cross-section of opinions. Let’s dig in to the results:

RANKING THE TOP 10

We provided a template with the current top 10 from the Top 200 we published last week and asked scouts to rank them, while also giving them the opportunity to add players they felt belonged in that top group that we don’t currently have ranked there. Not surprisingly, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky received the most support for the No. 1 spot, but he was only one of two players to get multiple votes:

Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA: 13
Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech: 6

Only two other players got a vote, the top two high school shortstops in the class: Grady Emerson in Texas and Jacob Lombard from Florida. Emerson was the clear choice for No. 2 (11 votes), while he and Lackey tied for most votes for No. 3 with seven. Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora is the clear top college arm, and he got 11 fourth-place votes, while high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr. received nine fifth place votes.

Many scouts chimed in on who else should be in the top 10. Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick got the most attention there with four votes, while Kentucky’s Tyler Bell, USC's Mason Edwards, LSU’s Derek Curiel and high schooler Trevor Condon each got two votes.

The reasons why Cholowsky was selected were pretty simple: He’s the best player in the class.

“Roch feels like what you're hoping Emerson becomes,” one scouting director said.

“Roch has separated himself as a near ready Major League shortstop,” one scouting executive said. “He bet on himself going to college, and it paid off. I'd be shocked if by the end of 2027, he's not in a big league uniform.”

“He's earned it,” a scouting director said. “Best player on the best team.”

“Combo of elite performance, tools, and at a premium position,” another scouting director offered.

“He is the best player ... don't overthink it,” a third director said.

Those who chose Lackey also liked his combination of production at a premium position.

“He’s the best player with impact ceiling who stays in the middle of the field,” a scouting director said. “Athlete, tools, durable body, performer with plus makeup.”

WHO WILL WHITE SOX TAKE AT NO. 1?

Maybe you think Roch Cholowsky is the best player in the class. But do you think the White Sox are going to take him? The answer is overwhelmingly “yes.” It’s generally believed the White Sox are looking at four players for that top spot: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey and Lombard. All were mentioned, but this one was a rout:

15: Cholowsky
3: Emerson
2: Lombard
1: Lackey

BEYOND THE TOP OF THE DRAFT

The rest of the survey offered up answers to some of the most intriguing questions in this year's Draft.

Who is the best player in the class after the consensus top six?

That top six is generally considered to be: Cholowsky, Emerson, Lackey, Lombard, Flora and Booth. Next up, based on the results:

4: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
3: Derek Curiel, OF, LSU
2: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M; Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama; Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida; Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Fla.; Aiden Ruiz, SS, the Stony Brook School, NY
1: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky

Burress actually got the most votes for sixth place (seven) in the top 10 ranking question. He also got a lot of love in this next question:

Who is the best college position player in the class after Cholowsky and Lackey?

10: Burress
4: Hacopian
3: Lebron
2: Helfrick
1: Bell, Curiel

Who is the best college pitcher in the class after Jackson Flora?

7: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
6: Peterson
3: Cade Townsend, RHP, Mississippi
2: Edwards
1: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas; Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee; Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA

Who is the biggest wild card in the class?

9: Lebron
4: Lombard
3: Flukey
1: Booth; Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS, Mass.; Jared Grindlinger, LHP/OF, Huntington Beach HS, Calif.; Dee Kennedy, SS, Kansas State

Speaking of wild cards, Jared Grindlinger is a talented two-way player from the high school ranks. Which way would you want to send him out?

9: Pitcher
7: Let him do both!
5: Hitter

Who is a dark horse to sneak into the first round?

A total of 16 different players were mentioned. Bo Lowrance, a high school infielder from South Carolina who has been showing up in some mock drafts, got the most votes, with three. Georgia Tech’s Jarren Advincula and Carson Kerce each got two votes. Why so many different opinions? This scouting executive summed that up succinctly:

“Too many to list. Extremely flat after the top handful, could end up with similar players going 10-40.”

Finally, what grade would you put on this class overall?

The responses averaged out to just a tick over 50, average on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Scouts gave grades ranging from 30 -- “Easy answer is 40, but in an effort to use the whole scale I’ll go 30,” -- up to 65, with a lot of choices in between.

“The depth makes it a 60,” one evaluator said.

“Thought it was plus preseason, it has really fallen back the deeper we get into it,” a scouting director explained. “40/45 overall. College pitching being so up and down has made it hard to slot, and a number of the college position players haven’t performed to expectations.”

“45,” another evaluator concluded. “Lot of what feels like role players at the next level. Platoon outfielders, or premium position players with massive flaws (Lebron), or incredibly risky HS pitching [more than normal].”