ATLANTA -- It is July, which means it’s Trade Deadline season.
Asked about the Deadline shortly after the firing of manager Carlos Mendoza earlier this month, president of baseball operations David Stearns responded that he hasn’t thought about it at all. At the time, that made sense. Stearns has been consistent in saying there’s little point in talking trade until around the All-Star break, when most teams begin to clarify whether they’ll be buyers or sellers.
But the All-Star break isn't so far away anymore, and if the Mets win every game between now and then, they’ll still be well below .500 heading into it. Even after a 10-9 victory over the Braves on Sunday, they look the part of quintessential sellers, which begs the question: Who makes sense for the Mets to shop?
RHP Freddy Peralta
Two things can be true: Peralta can be the Mets’ best Deadline asset, and it may not be a no-brainer to trade him. Last week in Toronto, Peralta allowed five more runs to raise his ERA to 4.81, which ranks sixth-worst among qualified Major League starters. While teams will surely still have interest in Peralta given his pedigree, will they dangle a prospect significantly better than the Mets could get through Draft pick compensation by extending him a qualifying offer? Might the Mets instead keep Peralta and try to leverage his poor season by signing him to a below-market extension? These are the things they must consider over the coming weeks.
Estimated chance of trade: 80 percent
LHPs Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter
These two are classic Deadline rentals: left-handed relievers on expiring contracts who are having excellent seasons. Every July, there is a long list of contenders seeking bullpen help. For those reasons, Raley (2.25 ERA over 32 innings) and Minter (0.60 ERA over 15 innings) are as good as gone.
Estimated chance of trade: 99 percent
RHPs Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazobán
Here’s where things begin to get less obvious. Weaver has one more year of team control after this season. Brazobán has three more. Both players can help a 2027 Mets team that still intends to compete.
Yet relief pitchers are fickle, as Brazobán demonstrated during a ninth-inning meltdown on Sunday, and the value for these two may never get much higher. Relievers, even good ones, also tend to be replaceable through free agency and the farm system. If president of baseball operations David Stearns wishes to cash in on Weaver’s 23-game scoreless streak, now is the time. If he wants to cash in on Brazobán’s versatility, now is the time. These players should have real value on the trade market.
Estimated chance of trade: 70 percent
LHP Sean Manaea and RHP Kodai Senga
The fact that the Mets managed to land a Top 30 prospect for struggling starter David Peterson underscores the fact that even contenders are starved for pitching. If Manaea or Senga were on a cheaper contract, they’d probably be on their way out the door. But Manaea is still owed $25 million next season -- a massive sum for a pitcher with a 5.39 ERA since the start of 2025. Senga is only owed $15 million after this season, but he’s been arguably less reliable than Manaea.
Still, pitching is pitching. Both of these players have flashed ace upside in the relatively recent past. Both have also shown better velocity of late, which could tempt contending clubs to take chances on them. If the Mets are willing to pay down salaries the same way they were during their 2023 selloff, they could land at least modestly useful prospects for arms such as these.
Estimated chance of trade: 30 percent
The best of the rest
Considering the state of their roster, the Mets would do well to consider trades for anything not nailed to the floor. The problem is that most of their players are either too expensive (Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor) to be easily dealt; have not been productive enough to tempt opposing teams (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos et al); or some combination of both (Bo Bichette, Devin Williams).
While it’s possible the Mets could look to get creative on deals for players like Lindor or Bichette (who has the first of his two opt-outs after this season), those types of trades tend to be easier to consummate in the offseason.
So who does that leave? Rookies like Nolan McLean, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge should be safe. Pretty much anyone else could go. Might the Mets look to deal catcher Francisco Alvarez, for example, who is finally healthy but about to hit arbitration for the first time? Outside of the names listed above, there aren’t other obvious trade candidates on this Mets roster. But if the team wants to get creative, now would be the time.
Estimated chance of trade: Someone will probably go. The only question is who.