Once a year -- before playoff races heat up and all we can think about are mythical three-way ties for the third Wild Card spot -- we like to identify the players who've most exceeded expectations in the regular season.
Of course, expectations are wildly subjective, so as per tradition, we consulted with FanGraphs' preseason ZiPS projections to see who, mathematically, has provided the most value where clubs weren't expecting it. And out of an especially crowded field of injury replacements, rookies and comeback kids, we've selected eight to highlight below.
All stats through Monday, Aug. 17.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs, OF
Projected: 4.7 fWAR, .765 OPS
Actual: 8.2 fWAR, .929 OPS
With great power comes great responsibility, or something to that effect, but the former usually kicks in first, and that was how PCA made this list last year -- with a major over-performance in the slugging department. His power continues to develop, but he's cut down massively on his free-swinging, resulting in simultaneous 92- and 69-point gains in his on-base (.379) and slugging percentages (.550), respectively. ZiPS projected a 5.2% walk rate for 2026, the lowest handed out to any prospective qualifier in baseball. He's currently at 11.8%, which ranks in the 80th percentile a year after he ranked in the 4th. In the last 10 years, nine players have posted at least one 8-fWAR season. With a little less than six weeks remaining on the schedule, Crow-Armstrong, incredibly, is already there, and chasing a possible 40-40 season as he goes.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals, OF
Projected: -0.2 fWAR, .670 OPS
Actual: 3.0 fWAR, .847 OPS
ZiPS wasn't even willing to call Walker a replacement-level player, so brutal was his 2025 season (-1.3 fWAR). His hot start naturally made us wonder how long it could reasonably go on. The answer was roughly two and a half months; his average dropped under .300 and his OPS under .900 in mid-June, and he hasn't really looked the same since. But that's proven quite informative. Since June 16 -- the day his OPS dipped below .900 -- Walker has hit .279/.344/.428 (.772) with a 21.9 K%. This comparative cold streak juxtaposed against his 2026 projections (.232/.296/.373, 27.2 K%) make it quite clear that we're looking at a different hitter this year, which casts the excellent overall numbers (.289/.347/.500, 25 HR, 88 RBIs) in an even more flattering light.
Dillon Dingler, Tigers, C
Projected: 2.9 fWAR, .706 OPS
Actual: 5.2 fWAR, .818 OPS
Some teams have calling cards. The Tigers, for their part, are developing a habit of showing up with a brand new 20-homer catcher every few years. Dingler's homer binge took ZiPS by surprise. Just past his estimated game total, he's already doubled his home run production from 13 to 26. The 93-point gain on his projected slugging percentage combined with his defense behind the plate currently has him sitting pretty with the fourth-highest fWAR in all of baseball (behind Crow-Armstrong, Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez). We're spoiled for great catchers all across baseball at the moment, but as far as fWAR is concerned, the Tigers' is the very best on offer.
Otto Lopez, Marlins, SS
Projected: 2.5 fWAR, .710 OPS
Actual: 4.5 fWAR, .796 OPS
The Marlins replaced Luis Arraez with Otto Lopez at second base two years ago, and it's getting increasingly difficult to tell them apart, even if Lopez dares to strike out more than 6% of the time. (He's at 13%.) Lopez already had bat-to-ball skills, good bones to build around. The little things have brought everything together in 2026. Mechanical adjustments got him a little more exit velocity. After hitting .259 with a .393 SLG against fastballs in 2025, he's up to a .348 AVG and .529 SLG in 2026. Tying together his transformation into one of baseball's premier contact hitters, he's all over the running game, too, already working on a career-high 24 stolen bases.
Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers, RHP
Projected: 1.9 fWAR, 3.86 ERA
Actual: 5.4 fWAR, 1.75 ERA
Misiorowski dazzled hitters in 2025 but hit the same speed bumps most rookies do. There were too many walks (31 in 66 innings), the contact made against him was a little too good and opponents were generally unimpressed with his slider. ZiPS projected for him a "pretty good, something to build on" 2026 season with a 10.9 K/9 and a problematic 3.9 BB/9. Plot twist: he's in the zone even less than before, but facing him has become such an ordeal that he's almost halved his BB/9 (2.0), and he may actually be the least hittable pitcher we've ever seen at the big league level. His 4.7 H/9 is currently on track to be the lowest ever posted in a qualifying season, miles below the current record for a pitcher in an 162-game season (Nolan Ryan's 5.29 in 1972.) He also leads all qualifiers in ERA, WHIP (0.75) and K/9 (13.6). At this point, it'd be more of a shock if he didn't win a Cy Young this year. To borrow a phrase from last year's note on Cal Raleigh, no projection model will ever tell you a player is going to have the best season ever recorded at his position. That's still the case.
Cam Schlittler, Yankees, RHP
Projected: 2.1 fWAR, 4.00 ERA
Actual: 4.9 fWAR, 2.19 ERA
Rinse and repeat. Schlittler debuted in July 2025 with a big fastball, a hittable breaking ball (a curveball, in his case) and a few too many baserunners. ZiPS expected both his strikeouts and walks to contract in 2026 (9.3 K/9, 3.2 BB/9); it was half right. With an AL-best 2.19 ERA (192 ERA+) plus a 0.94 WHIP (6.5 H/9, 2.0 BB/9) and 189 strikeouts in 152 innings (11.2 K/9), his dramatic escalation has made him MLB's other Cy Young frontrunner. Like Misiorowski, Schlittler noted the feedback on his breaking pitches a year ago. Unlike Misiorowski, he's abandoned all pretense and is now throwing 90% fastballs. Sounds unhinged. But because he throws three of them -- the primary four-seamer (44.3%) plus a cutter (25.8%) and a sinker (20.0%) -- hitters are running into the same problems they experience facing Garrett Crochet, not a comp anyone can give lightly.
Parker Messick, Guardians, LHP
Projected: 1.3 fWAR, 3.99 ERA
Actual: 3.5 fWAR, 2.59 ERA
Misiorowski and Schlittler have the first- and third-best four-seamers in baseball by run value. Misiorowski's averages 100.7 mph; Schlittler's, 97.9. Sandwiched between them is Messick, who averages a comparatively pedestrian 94.2 mph on the pitch that's been the centerpiece of a vastly improved arsenal. You may now be sensing a bit of a theme -- Messick is also a breaking ball minimalist. 27.2% of his pitches thrown in 2025 were curveballs or sliders; that number is now down to 15.0%. He has more strikeouts than ZiPS projected (9.0 K/9, to his projected 8.6) and fewer walks (2.5 BB/9 vs. projected 3.0), but more than anything else, he's inducing weak contact and letting his defense work behind him. In a way, he's actually giving the Guardians exactly what ZiPS would have told them to expect -- something straightforward, unflashy and pretty effective.
Sean Burke, White Sox, RHP
Projected: 1.1 fWAR, 4.66 ERA
Actual: 3.0 fWAR, 3.15 ERA
The White Sox are fixing to win the AL Central by exceeding all expectations; this, fittingly, is their ace. Burke was actually in Chicago's rotation for much of the 2025 season, where he put up pretty average numbers and led the team with 11 losses anyway. ZiPS projected a repeat performance -- a 4.66 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9, likely still to be accompanied by roughly a hit per inning. Burke has instead -- and, again, stop us if you've heard this one before -- given his four-seamer more protection from his sinker and a brand new cutter and worked on stabilizing his delivery. Command vastly improved and at-bats now unfolding more on his terms, Burke is averaging more than a strikeout per inning (9.9 K/9) and a career-low 2.7 BB/9, and his July numbers in particular (5 GS, 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 11.25 K/BB) really capture the imagination.