MILWAUKEE -- There is a win probability chart that illustrates the roller coaster of each Major League game -- the ups, the downs, the rallies and the comebacks that fall short.
For most of Game 2 of the National League Division Series between the Padres and Brewers, the trend line favored San Diego. Then, it plummeted in the bottom of the ninth, telling the story of a pivotal 4-3 walk-off loss that slipped through the Padres' fingers.
"We knew it was going to be a dogfight coming in,” said Ty France. “They're the best team in baseball. Unfortunately, it didn't go our way.”
The Padres stormed into the postseason with the best offense in baseball last month. Now down 0-2 in the best-of-five NLDS, they need to channel that September surge and convert opportunities on the basepaths into runs on the scoreboard.
San Diego had opportunities in both the seventh and eighth innings to push that win probability higher, but its offense could not come through, leaving closer Mason Miller to get six outs while protecting a one-run lead.
He got five.
Leading 2-1, the Padres entered the seventh inning with a 66.8 percent win probability. A fielding error by David Hamilton put Fernando Tatis Jr. on first base with one out. After Dustin Harris flied out, Manny Machado kept the inning going by winning an ABS challenge to draw a walk against Abner Uribe.
The Padres had runners on first and second with France coming to the plate. France came through again, sending an RBI single into right field to drive in Tatis for a 3-1 lead.
But just as quickly as the Padres looked to extend their advantage, their momentum was halted. Right fielder Sal Frelick nabbed Machado with a one-hop throw to Hamilton at third base. Inning over.
This opened a window for the Brewers to score in the bottom of the seventh and make it a 3-2 game.
“Both teams are built with good defenses and also with some speed on the offensive side,” said Padres manager Craig Stammen. “It forces mistakes, but it also can show some really, really good plays. They made some great plays, we made some great plays. A couple they probably want back, a couple we want back. But in the end, it was a tightly contested game. They had to walk us off to beat us.”
The Padres made one more late-game push in the eighth inning. Jackson Merrill and pinch-hitter Samad Taylor led off with back-to-back singles. But then Xander Bogaerts struck out on an Aaron Ashby 100 mph sinker, and Freddy Fermin grounded into an inning-ending double play.
"[The Brewers are] one of the best [pitching] staffs in the game, so hits are going to be hard to come by,” France said. “But at the end of the day, if you want to win, you've got to get it done."
The Padres were 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left eight runners on base on Sunday. The Brewers, similarly, went 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position and stranded seven runners.
“Overall, it’s going to be tough against their pitching staff to punch through in those spots,” said Stammen. “They’re matching up really well. With two outs, not a given that we’re gonna get a hit. But we had a couple tonight.
“A couple more would have helped.”
The Padres were quick to shake off Saturday’s game that saw France’s potential go-ahead home run robbed by a cable under the roof at American Family Field. France got them going with an RBI single off Logan Henderson in the first inning. The Padres tacked on a run in the fifth inning when they capitalized on a pair of infield throwing errors. Those two runs provided a buffer when the Brewers ended Michael King’s no-hit bid and Sal Frelick drove in Christian Yelich.
“We didn’t play special,” said Brewers manager Pat Murphy. “When do you see us make four defensive miscues in a game in the infield? … We gave up all those free bases, and we’re lucky to stay in the game. I attribute our pitching staff making quality pitches to keep us in those games. But it’s not like us to make those errors.”
Still, the Padres had a 79.6 percent win probability going into the bottom of the ninth.
A game that saw both teams struggle with stranded runners was ultimately decided by a clutch hit with the bases loaded. Jackson Chourio’s dramatic walk-off single against Miller underscored the opportunities that stood just 90 feet away.
“It suck[s],” said France. “[We] could very easily be going home up 2-0. But the reality is, we're not. We have to go and have to win. No ifs, ands or buts. Got to play our best baseball now."