Don't ask me if things are slowing down since the Draft. We just refreshed the tops of all of our organization Top 30s, Draft signings have happened fast and furious, trades are about to start streaming in and we're beginning work on the complete overhaul of the Top 100 Prospects list and the org Top 30s (scheduled for early August). Let's answer some questions ...
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It's that time again for me to continue our tradition and ask the question everyone wants to know: Which Draft picks will immediately become their team's new No. 1 prospect immediately upon signing? -- J.P. S., Springfield, Ill.
I always look forward to this question from J.P., who began asking it when I was writing the "Ask BA" column during my Baseball America days. No. 1 overall pick Roch Cholowsky will dethrone Caleb Bonemer (No. 16 on the current Top 100) as the White Sox top prospect, and No. 2 choice Grady Emerson should edge out Theo Gillen (No. 9 on the Top 100) atop the Rays list.
No. 3 selection Vahn Lackey versus Walker Jenkins (No. 14 on the Top 100) for the Twins is an interesting debate, though I suspect Jenkins will win that one for now. I see only two other possible arguments. I'd take No. 7 pick Eric Booth Jr. over Nate George (No. 56 on the Top 100) for the Orioles, and I'd lean toward Demetrio Crisantes (No. 86 on the Top 100) of the D-backs holding off No. 15 choice Ryder Helfrick.
When we put together any of our prospect lists, we try to reflect the industry consensus to some degree. So when we look to integrate the 2026 draftees into the revamped Top 100 list in early August, we'll consider both our Draft Top 250 rankings (which also baked in industry consensus) and also where they went in the Draft and how much they got paid.
We typically include a baker's dozen or so of fresh draftees on the Top 100 every summer. Here's the top 13 prospects from the Draft Top 250:
1. Grady Emerson, SS (No. 2, Rays)
2. Roch Cholowsky, SS (No. 1, White Sox)
3. Vahn Lackey, C (No. 3, Twins)
4. Jackson Flora, RHP (No. 4, Giants)
5. Jacob Lombard, SS (No. 14, Marlins)
6. Eric Booth Jr., OF (No. 7, Orioles)
7. Drew Burress, OF (No. 8, Athletics)
8. Gio Rojas, LHP (No. 16, Rangers)
9. Justin Lebron, SS (No. 18, Reds)
10. Tyler Bell, SS (No. 10, Rockies)
11. Ryder Helfrick, C (No. 15, Diamondbacks)
12. Derek Curiel, OF (No. 5, Pirates)
13. Trevor Condon, OF (No. 13, Cardinals)
But if you factor in our pre-Draft rankings along with Draft position and bonus, that order would look more like this:
1. Emerson
2. Cholowsky
3. Lackey
4. Flora
5. Booth
6. Burress
7. Curiel
8. Bell
9. Lombard
10. Helfrick
11. Rojas
12. Lebron
13. Condon
I suspect when we unveil the new Top 100, the order of 2026 draftees will follow that second list more closely than the first. Curiel might be a bit high, and we might flip Rojas and Helfrick.
Mayer was our top-rated prospect in the 2021 Draft, where the Red Sox grabbed him at No. 4, and ranked No. 15 on our Top 100 Prospects list when he opened the 2024 season in Double-A Portland at age 21. Arias didn't crack our International Top 50 in 2023, when he signed out of Venezuela for $525,000, and sat at No. 31 on the Top 100 when he began this season with the Sea Dogs at age 20.
Mayer had more prospect pedigree but Arias got to Double-A a year earlier (both had cameos at that level the prior season) and he outperformed him there. Mayer slashed .307/.370/.480 with eight homers in 77 games before earning a promotion to Triple-A Worcester. Arias batted .318/.407/.587 with 19 homers in 75 contests before getting moved to the WooSox.
So as good as Mayer was two years ago, Arias is even better. They're quite similar prospects, with Mayer possessing more physicality but Arias doing a better job of avoiding injuries.
The Giants have three Top 100 Prospects in shortstops Josuar Gonzalez, Luis Hernández and Jhonny Level. The next three guys on our Giants Top 30 are hitters also pressing for inclusion on the Top 100: middle infielder Gavin Kilen and outfielders Dakota Jordan and Bo Davidson.
San Francisco has some sneaky-good arms, highlighted by left-hander Jacob Bresnahan and right-hander Keyner Martinez, but they get overshadowed by all the position-player talent in the system. But after what the Giants accomplished in the Draft, we're going to start paying more attention to their pitching.
With the No. 4 overall pick and a $7,997,500 bonus, San Francisco landed the consensus best pitcher in UC Santa Barbara's Jackson Flora. Then they spent their next two choices and another $6.63 million on a pair of high school arms, Carson Bolemon (MLB Pipeline's top-rated 2026 Draft pitcher entering the year) and Kaden Waechter. Hofstra's Carlos Martinez (fourth round), McNeese State's Eric Nachtsheim (sixth), Jacksonville State's Beau Bryans (seventh) and Louisiana-Lafayette's Cody Brasch (eighth) are interesting as well.
I'm very bullish on the Giants system and even more so after the Draft. Pitching prospects are volatile but I like the idea of a 2029 rotation featuring some combination with Logan Webb, Flora and Bolemon as the top three starters complemented by some combination of Bresnahan, Keyner Martinez, Waechter and Landen Roupp.