MESA, Ariz. -- Two things can be true: River Ryan has been among the top-performing Dodgers fighting for a rotation spot this spring, and yet, he would appear unlikely to begin the season in the Majors.
Ryan enters this season as the Dodgers' No. 6 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, a year and a half after his first taste of big league action was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. The 27-year-old right-hander impressed in 2024, recording a 1.33 ERA in four starts, and he hasn't shown many signs of rust this spring, posting a 1.86 ERA through four outings. That includes his first start vs. the Rangers in the home game of Sunday’s split-squad action, during which he tossed four innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts.
The Dodgers have yet to decide whether Ryan will begin the season in Los Angeles or with Triple-A Oklahoma City, but reading the tea leaves, signs point to the latter. Here are some reasons why:
Dodgers' needs
The Dodgers don't necessarily need six designated starters in their opening stretch of 12 games in 15 days, but they probably will in the stretch of 19 games in 20 days that follows.
As manager Dave Roberts put it, "having six available guys to take down innings is a good thing," even if the team can get through that season-opening span using only five starters. That would allow the Dodgers to piggyback Shohei Ohtani, who may only be stretched out to two or three innings, and have additional length in the ’pen.
Four spots in the rotation are more or less settled: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani and Roki Sasaki. Blake Snell and Gavin Stone will begin the season on the injured list. Ryan, Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski are the leading candidates for the remaining spots.
The Dodgers don't necessarily need their fifth and sixth starters to be capable of hybrid roles, but they tend to believe that the more options they have, the better. And that would seemingly give Sheehan and Wrobleski, who have experience as swingmen, the edge over Ryan.
Ryan's role
This spring, Ryan has made more relief appearances than starts, but that is more a function of the organization having several pitchers to build up. The Dodgers see Ryan as a starter, and they're inclined to keep him in a role that he's familiar with this year.
"I think that he’s open for whatever the organization needs. He’s a strong-minded young man," Roberts said. "And then it goes back to what’s best for him. … But obviously, coming off what he came off, consistency of routine makes a lot of sense.”
Ryan has very little experience pitching in relief, and he's found it difficult to adapt his typical pre-start routine to warming up mid-game. He knows that pitching out of the bullpen could be a reality for him at some point -- particularly in the postseason -- so he values getting some opportunities to figure out a viable routine. But for the time being, he wants to start.
"Personally, I think being a starter and coming out -- having a whole prep routine before I get on the mound -- is much better for my body, especially coming off of surgery," Ryan said. "Not really getting any throws before I try to warm up in the bullpen doesn't feel all that great. But it's manageable, and I'm feeling good now."
Workload considerations
The Dodgers also have to factor in how many innings Ryan can realistically handle this year. Coming off a major surgery is one factor, but his career workload is another. He has only thrown more than 100 innings once as a professional, in 2023. In ’24, he threw 44 2/3 innings combined between the Minors and Majors before getting hurt.
"You look at the history of guys that have had those types of injuries," Roberts said, "to think he’s going to take down 30 starts is unrealistic."
It's not a question of if Ryan will impact the Dodgers this year, but when. Both he and the team envision him contributing in the postseason. Ensuring that he can still be effective then is part of the equation as the Dodgers decide where he should begin the season. Starting in Triple-A would allow him to ease into what is expected to be a big year.
"It just seems like they do a good job of taking care of their guys coming off of surgery," Ryan said. "I feel like that's what they're trying to do with me right now."