Roch Cholowsky entered 2026 as the strongest favorite to go first overall in the Draft at the outset of a year since Adley Rutschman in 2019. He's still the best all-around college shortstop since Troy Tulowitzki two decades ago, he led UCLA to a No. 1 ranking from the preseason through the conference tournament and he won Big Ten player of the year accolades for the second straight year.
We even upgraded Cholowsky's defensive grade from a 60 to a 65 on MLB Pipeline's freshly updated and expanded Draft Top 250 Prospects list. He still projects as a plus hitter with power to match.
So why has Fort Worth (Texas) Christian HS shortstop Grady Emerson ascended past Cholowsky to rank No. 1 on the new Draft Top 250?
2026 MLB DRAFT PRESENTED BY NIPPON EXPRESS
Day 1: Saturday, July 11 (Rounds 1-4)
• 1:00-2:30 p.m. ET - Picks 1-10 (NBC/Peacock)
• 2:30-4:30 p.m. ET - Picks 11-40 (MLB Network, MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
• 4:30-7:45 p.m. ET - Picks 41-135 (MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
Day 2: Sunday, July 12 (Rounds 5-20)
• 11:30 a.m.-7:30 p.m. ET (MLB.com, MLB TV, MLB+)
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A majority of teams view Emerson as having more upside than any player in the Draft, and the consensus is that he's the top hitter -- college or high school -- available as well. Bobby Witt Jr. set the standard for shortstops in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex, and while Emerson isn't quite as gifted as the Royals superstar, he's close.
Gatorade's national high school baseball player of the year, Emerson has advanced skills to go with his tools, making quality swing decisions and hard contact to all fields with a beautiful left-handed stroke. He doesn't swing for the fences but has the bat speed and projectable strength for at least 25-homer power. He's a solid runner with good instincts on the bases and at shortstop, where he makes difficult plays look easy.
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When Cholowsky came out of Hamilton HS (Chandler, Ariz.) in 2023, he could have gotten paid first-round money if he hadn't been intent on attending UCLA. But in a deep class of prep shortstops that year, we rated him the 10th-best. He wasn't in contention to be drafted No. 1 overall out of high school like Emerson is now.
While Emerson has moved ahead in our Draft rankings, Cholowsky is still the slight favorite to go No. 1 to the White Sox on July 11. The perception among other teams is that Chicago's scouts may prefer Emerson but that upper management or ownership may want Cholowsky because the talent gap between the two is narrow at best and he'll reach the big leagues more quickly.