This story was excerpted from Matthew Leach’s Twins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
EDEN PRAIRIE, Minn. – As the Twins brace themselves for the possibility of being without Byron Buxton again, it may be approaching time for the debut of their top prospect (and No. 15 overall per MLB Pipeline) and their farm system’s most hyped product in several years, outfielder Walker Jenkins.
The hope, of course, is that the hip discomfort that forced Buxton out of Tuesday night’s game against the Athletics is not serious, and that with a couple of days off, he will be able to return to the lineup at home on Friday for the start of a critical stretch of division games. Regardless, the drumbeat for Jenkins has grown louder and louder as he has finally shown the kind of dominant performance at Triple-A lately that forces organizations to make hard decisions.
A disclaimer: today’s newsletter was initially planned to be a look at the various logistical considerations involved in a potential Jenkins callup in a world where Buxton was available and at least mostly healthy. But the equation changed in the seventh inning Tuesday. Whether it changed a little bit or a lot remains to be seen.
COMPLETE TWINS PROSPECT COVERAGE
If Buxton goes on the injured list – and it’s quite possible that the club could wait until Friday to make a move even if he does require an IL stint – there aren’t a ton of great alternatives to Jenkins as the corresponding move.
They could recall a role player like Tristan Gray or Gabriel Gonzalez, or bring Matt Wallner back to the Majors. But in a scenario where Buxton is going on the injured list, while Trevor Larnach slumps, it would be tough to justify not calling up a player with the potential two-way impact of Jenkins. He has also played so well lately as simply to have earned it.
Let’s look at the other possibility, though, because that’s the more complicated one by far. Assume that Buxton is playable, and that even if he needs extra days off here and there, he’s remaining on the roster. That’s at least possible, and you can be certain that Buxton would strongly prefer to avoid the IL as his team battles for a playoff spot.
I had an exchange with a few fans on social media about three weeks ago, shortly before Kaelen Culpepper was called up. They were pushing for a Jenkins callup, and we had a good conversation. And my point then – one that I have heard club officials make repeatedly – is that for a top prospect to be called up, at least one of two conditions has to be met, and ideally both of them.
There has to be a clear pathway for the player to play every day, an obvious need for him on the roster. This happened with Culpepper, as Ryan Kreidler slumped deeply at the plate (though thrived defensively) after he became the primary shortstop.
And/or, the prospect just has to be so good that he forces the conversation. At that time, neither condition existed. Larnach was playing well, and Jenkins was having a very nice year but had not gone supernova.
Since then? One of those has changed significantly. Jenkins has put together exactly the kind of hot streak that changes the conversation in baseball ops meetings, posting a .406/.488/.768 slash line in August. Meanwhile, Larnach has slumped, creating a clamor for Jenkins to be called up to play left field. It’s understandable.
But I can tell you this: they’re not just going to bench Larnach entirely. He’s had an exceptional year until August, and is a key part of the team. He could and probably will see his playing time diminish if he doesn’t heat up, but he’s not going to the bench entirely. They’re also not going to start playing Buxton regularly at DH, benching Josh Bell, who has been productive and is a key clubhouse figure. And they’re not going to bench Luke Keaschall or move him back to the infield to make room for Jenkins in right.
With a healthy Buxton, there’s one path, and it is viable: play Jenkins in a few spots. Dial back Larnach’s at-bats some and play Jenkins a bit in left. Give Buxton some more DH games and play Jenkins some in center. Sit Keaschall against tough righties and play him in right some. And DH him some. That is possible, and if Buxton is not going on the IL, it’s the path that they would most likely take.