What to expect when Painter 'finally' makes his MLB debut

Andrew Painter was supposed to be Exhibit A for pitching phenoms, not the poster boy for how non-linear baseball development can be. Yet here we are.

After a 2022 season that saw him dominate three levels at age 19, Painter was the clear choice for MLB Pipeline Pitching Prospect of the Year honors. Visions of the 20-year-old right-hander reaching the big league rotation in 2023 and heading it for years did not seem fanciful.

Then the elbow happened. First diagnosed in March 2023, Painter didn't improve with rest and rehab, so he had Tommy John surgery in late July that year and didn't throw a competitive pitch until his very successful Arizona Fall League stint in 2024. Perhaps it was unfair to ratchet up the excitement level for his inevitable big league debut based on 15 2/3 AFL innings, but everyone assumed it would come at some point in 2025. Even the Phillies were planning for it, managing his workload for the possibility of him getting to Philadelphia and having innings to give during a playoff run.

Once again, things didn't go according to plan. Painter spent nearly all year with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, and after a solid May, he never found consistent footing. Ending the year with a 5.26 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and .276 average-against was not exactly what those who felt he'd pitch meaningful October innings had in mind. He struggled with fastball command, he didn't miss as many bats and there was concern voiced about his elbow dropping in his delivery.

There wasn't any panic -- Painter still comes in at No. 26 on MLB Pipeline's Top 100 list -- but there seemed to be less hoopla and fanfare around him this spring, even though he was being given every chance to win a rotation spot. His strong Grapefruit League put him on very solid footing, and Zack Wheeler's delay in getting back cemented Painter's slot, at least for the time being. And even with all of the missed time and the rough 2025 campaign, he's making his Major League debut vs. the Nationals on Tuesday (6:40 p.m. ET) ahead of his 23rd birthday.

We don't want to extrapolate too much from his Spring Training -- we learned that lesson post-AFL, right? -- but he did look a lot more like the Painter of old, the one whose combination of stuff and feel for pitching seemed certain to lead to a career as a frontline starter. His arm slot is back to where it was pre-surgery, with confidence that issues on that front last year came mostly from fatigue. It's easy to forget that after topping 100 innings in 2022, he didn't pitch for two full years outside of those handful of innings in Arizona in the fall of 2024 before amassing 118 IP last year. Having a normal, non-rehab based offseason, with things like a full long toss program, helped his slot creep up naturally and should aid him endurance-wise this season.

Painter's fastball command was better overall this spring than it was last year. The velocity has never been a real question -- he sat over 96 mph in 2025 and flirted with triple digits, while being 96-98 mph in Grapefruit League action -- but he struggled both in and out of the zone with his heater in Triple-A last year. Again, small sample size, but after hitters teed off on his fastball in 2025 (.343 average-against according to Synergy), Spring Training opponents hit .250 (5-for-20) on the pitch. Overall, the shape of the fastball was encouraging.

And his breaking stuff might be even better than it was last year. That's saying something because even with his struggles, Painter's ability to spin a variety of offerings elicited a 31-percent miss rate in 2025. His hard, short slider -- thrown up to 90-91 mph -- was nasty this spring and he still has an effective sweeper (83-84 mph) and low-80s curve. Don't sleep on his upper-80s changeup either. That's a pitch that missed bats at a 55 percent clip last year and was really good when he threw it this spring.

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That's right, Painter very much has five legitimate pitches in his arsenal. He can throw them all for strikes, and when he's locked in, he commands them well. Last year should be considered a success; while he didn't reach Philadelphia, he was healthy all season and has a year of learning with the new baseball under his belt.

He's a smart pitcher who will undoubtedly learn from the lumps he took, as well as what transpires this year. The Painter we see in his first start won't be the same starter later on in the year. He made the roster based on his current stuff and how he uses it. Look for Painter to make adjustments as the season progresses and claim a rotation spot for good, even after Wheeler returns to big league action.