Is it possible for a prospect who is ranked No. 53 on the Top 100 to be considered underrated?
How about if he’s a career .322 hitter with a .385 on-base percentage since being taken as a mid-first rounder in 2022? Or averaged 45 stolen bases per season over his three full years of pro ball? Or posted wRC+ totals of 132, 130 and 135 in each of those seasons? Or played all year in Triple-A at age 21 in 2025 and won the International League batting title with a .334 average while finishing third in on-base percentage and steals?
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Yet here we are, set to watch Justin Crawford begin his big league career as the Phillies center fielder on Thursday at home against the Rangers, with what feels like a subpar amount of buzz surrounding the 22-year old. He doesn’t even seem to get points for MLB family ties, with his father Carl having turned in a 15-year big league career.
Some of it has to do with how Crawford does it at the plate. Any concerns about Crawford typically have stemmed from his propensity to hit the ball on the ground. It’s true, he does that a lot, but what’s lost in that discussion is how the groundball percentages have trended: 69.7 percent in 2023, 60.9 percent in 2024 and down to 59.4 percent last year. As he’s gotten older and added strength, he’s shown the ability to get the ball in the air a little more.
That’s not to say Crawford is primed to become a big power guy now, or ever. Especially out of the gate, prepare to see choppers hit the other way, balls finding holes. As one executive put it, he’s going to run for his slugging percentage for the time being. Whether that’s sustainable is the question, but because he can shoot the ball pretty much anywhere, he’s awfully hard to position defensively, with teams having to find a way to play him opposite field in the outfield but shaded more to pull up the middle. Crawford is hard to pinpoint, and if and when he finds a spot where there isn’t an outfielder stationed, it’s almost an automatic double thanks to his nearly top-of-the-scale speed, the same wheels that will make him a basestealing threat from the get-go.
One of the main misconceptions with Crawford’s groundball profile is that he doesn’t hit the ball hard. Quite the contrary. In 2025, his max exit velocity was over 110 mph. His average EV was 89.8 with Lehigh Valley a year ago and his hard-hit percentage was 40.7 percent, both per Statcast. In case you were curious, the Major League average in both last year was 89.4 mph and 41 percent. MLB average isn’t too shabby for a then 21-year old.
There’s confidence there’s more impact to come -- he continues to add good weight to his 6-foot-2 frame, and he came to camp this year with an extra 10-15 pounds on him. Now it will be on him to maintain that and improve it in the years to come. Using his dad as model to follow, Carl never hit more than seven homers in the Minors, but when he hit 11 dingers with the Rays in 2004, in his age-22 season by the way, that was the first of seven times the speedy outfielder reached double-digits, with a career high of 18. It’s not unrealistic to see Justin follow that path.
The Phillies are doing it right by hitting him ninth to kick off his career. Not only does it remove some pressure from him, but it gives the lineup a second leadoff hitter type and back-to-back burners with Trea Turner sitting atop the lineup. One more encouraging stat that points to Crawford being able to act as a bottom-of-the-order table-setter: His walk rate in 2025 jumped to 11.5 percent, while he actually cut his strikeout rate a touch, a sign that he understands what his job is and that he doesn’t always have to put the ball in play to get on base.
The one other concern some evaluators have voiced in the past has been about Crawford’s outfield defense. There were some who felt he was destined for left field, and he did appear in 30 games there in Triple-A last season. But he’s improved in this regard as well and looked like he belonged in center field during Grapefruit League play this spring. There’s still refinement to be made, though he possesses the ability to outrun mistakes.
Maybe he prefers to fly under the radar a bit, but expect Crawford to contribute on both sides of the ball during his rookie season for a team everyone anticipates to compete for another NL East title.