How the Trade Deadline could impact this year's qualifying offers

Free agency usually isn’t at the front of mind right after the Trade Deadline passes, but some of the deals we just saw -- and some we didn’t -- could have ripple effects that carry into the offseason.

Among the most obvious: the qualifying offer, a one-year contract -- set at the average salary of MLB's top 125 highest-paid players (worth $22.025 million last offseason) -- that a team can extend to its own free agents. If the player declines it and signs elsewhere, his former team is entitled to Draft compensation. Signing a player who turned down a QO also comes with penalties for his new team.

There are a couple caveats. First, players are eligible to receive a QO only once in their careers. They also must have spent the entire preceding season with one team -- meaning anyone traded in-season is ineligible.

Here’s a look at how the events of the 2026 Trade Deadline could impact the qualifying offer this offseason.

Note: The expiring Collective Bargaining Agreement shouldn’t have any bearing on this year’s QO process. Those rules are already locked in under the 2022-26 CBA.

• History of qualifying-offer decisions

Which upcoming free agents have already received a QO and are no longer eligible?

Players on expiring contracts who have previously received a QO include Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, George Springer, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Nick Martinez, Brandon Woodruff, Raisel Iglesias, Shota Imanaga, Zac Gallen, Michael Conforto, Martín Pérez, Joc Pederson, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Among players who could become free agents this offseason pending opt-outs, Michael King, Bo Bichette and Sonny Gray have previously received a QO as well.

• 18 players who have accepted qualifying offers

Who are some notable pending free agents who were just traded and are no longer QO eligible?

Tarik Skubal, SP, Dodgers
As the top prize in the upcoming free-agent class, Skubal’s market was going to be strong either way. But not being attached to QO penalties could ensure that more Competitive Balance Tax payors (QO penalties are harsher for them) get involved in the bidding without thinking twice.

Luis Arraez, 2B, Phillies
Questions about Arraez’s game -- from his poor defense to his one-dimensional offensive profile -- dampened his free-agent stock last offseason. He ultimately signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the Giants. Although Arraez has spent this season proving his doubters wrong, having a QO attached to him may have been another obstacle standing between him and a more robust market. The trade to Philadelphia takes that variable off the table.

Casey Mize, SP, Padres
Mize is having a career year before free agency (though his shaky Padres debut put a dent in his ERA), but he has a lengthy injury history and was a league-average pitcher across 2020-25 (100 ERA+). As a result, he may have strongly considered accepting a QO had he remained with the Tigers, rather than hit free agency with another hindrance potentially dragging down his market.

Clay Holmes, SP, Cubs
Holmes didn’t get a QO from the Yankees when he reached free agency after 2024, so he would have been eligible to receive one from the Mets if he wasn’t traded. Having proven his worth as a starter over the past two seasons, the converted reliever is expected to decline his $12 million player option for 2027 to become a free agent again.

Freddy Peralta, SP, Rays
After pitching like a frontline arm for the Brewers from 2021-25, Peralta has struggled this season (5.37 ERA). He may have considered accepting a QO from the Mets as a so-called “pillow” contract and tried to rebuild his value in 2027, but he won’t have that option anymore.

Others: Foster Griffin, SP, Guardians; Daulton Varsho, OF, Astros; Taylor Ward, OF, Mariners; Dustin May, SP, Brewers

Who are some trade candidates who weren’t dealt before the Deadline and remain QO eligible?

Trevor Rogers, SP, Orioles
Although the O’s traded Ward and Adley Rutschman, they held onto Rogers. The left-hander, who owns a 3.35 ERA, a 3.31 FIP and a 1.13 WHIP over 43 starts in an Orioles uniform, is a likely QO candidate.

Brady Singer, SP, Reds
The Reds re-signed Martinez via the QO after the 2024 season and could try to do the same with Singer after the righty wasn’t traded.

Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins
Minnesota has extended the qualifying offer to two players since the system was implemented: Jake Odorizzi in 2019 (he accepted) and Gray in ’23 (he declined). Jeffers has been one of baseball’s best hitting catchers over the past four seasons, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him join that list. The veteran backstop drew a lot of trade interest in the weeks leading up to the Deadline, but he stayed put as the Twins ended up buying rather than selling.

Adrian Morejon, RP, Padres
Mason Miller and Morejon both generated trade buzz amid rumblings that the Padres could consider selling as the club struggled through an extended rough patch. But San Diego reestablished itself as a buyer, acquiring Ray and Mize while retaining its star relievers. The select few relievers to receive qualifying offers all have been closers, but Morejon's stuff is good enough that the Friars could consider bucking that trend.

Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners
The Mariners were said to be listening on pitchers Emerson Hancock and George Kirby in addition to Arozarena as the Deadline approached, but none of the three was traded. With five straight 20-20 seasons under his belt and sixth potentially coming in 2026, Arozarena will be one of the top position players available this offseason and an obvious QO candidate.

Others: Shane Bieber, SP, Blue Jays; Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds