4 big questions for Mets' rotation this offseason

David Stearns has been the Mets’ president of baseball operations for three seasons, and in all three, the club’s rotation has left a lot to be desired.

In 2026, New York’s starters ranked 23rd in ERA (4.47), 22nd in innings (791), 15th in FIP (4.18) and tied for 18th in WAR (10.4, per FanGraphs), even with a superb rookie season from Nolan McLean.

Granted, the Mets’ offense was even worse, but there’s a clearer path to improvement on that side of the ball. Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor were in the starting lineup together only 55 times in 2026, and Bo Bichette was a non-factor for the first two months. The Mets should get more out of that trio in 2027. Add in young building blocks Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing, and New York has the makings of an above-average offensive group.

The club’s rotation is far murkier as the offseason gets underway. Here are four big questions that will shape the Mets' rotation outlook heading into 2027.

1. How aggressive will they be in Skubal sweepstakes?

Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is the best available player in free agency this offseason, and the Mets’ rotation needs and big budget make them a natural fit.

Signing Skubal would be a major departure from Stearns’ track record of avoiding nine-figure commitments to starting pitchers. But three straight years of underwhelming rotations and a disappointing 74-88 finish in 2026 could force a change in strategy, especially if owner Steve Cohen decides Skubal is a must-have.

2. Will Senga and/or Manaea be back?

Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea are both entering the final year of their contracts, and neither deal has gone the way the Mets hoped.

Senga, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal under the Mets’ previous front-office regime led by Billy Eppler, put together a strong rookie season for the club in 2023. But the rest of his tenure has been marred by injuries and inconsistency, and he spent much of 2026 pitching in relief after posting a 10.08 ERA over his first seven starts.

Manaea, meanwhile, has recorded a 5.03 ERA over the first two years of a three-year, $75 million contract, which he signed after a stellar showing for the Mets in 2024 (3.47 ERA in 181 2/3 IP).

Neither pitcher is guaranteed to be part of the Mets’ 2027 rotation -- or even on their roster.

3. Does McLean have another gear?

McLean gave the Mets plenty to be excited about in 2026. The question now is what comes next.

With electric stuff and a deep arsenal, the 25-year-old has the upside to be one of the game’s top-tier starting pitchers. His 2026 stats, including a 3.16 ERA, a 3.59 FIP and a 3.63 xERA, were impressive but fell a bit short of elite.

The hope for the Mets is that McLean has another level to climb. Whether he gets there will matter even more if they don't land Skubal to anchor their rotation.

4. Can their other homegrown starters be counted on?

McLean wasn’t the only homegrown Mets starter who provided reason for optimism in 2026.

Christian Scott (3.85 ERA, 11.0 K/9) and Zac Thornton (3.42 ERA, 3.5 K/BB) also showed promise over their 38 starts, and Jonah Tong looked dominant at times in the final month of the season (33.9% whiff rate, 31.0% strikeout rate).

At the same time, those three have combined for 291 innings in the Majors, so it’s still too early to count any of them as a sure thing for 2027.