With the 2026 regular season behind us and the hot stove ready to burn, we're taking a closer look at some of the most prominent players eligible for free agency.
Aaron Judge. Shohei Ohtani. Juan Soto. What do these three players have in common? They were each the clear-cut crown jewel of their respective free-agent classes, with the entire baseball world anxiously anticipating where they would land.
Tarik Skubal, welcome to the club.
The two-time American League Cy Young winner is headed for the open market after another stellar -- and eventful -- season. Skubal missed six weeks after undergoing a surgical procedure on his left elbow, though he returned in mid-June and picked up where he left off.
Skubal was traded to the Dodgers prior to the Trade Deadline, posting a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts for Los Angeles. The trade was notable because Skubal is not eligible to receive a qualifying offer, not that Draft-pick compensation would have stopped a team from pursuing the ace.
The southpaw allowed one run over six innings in a win over the Braves in his lone NL Division Series start, then took a loss against the Brewers in the NL Championship Series. He threw five innings of two-run ball in what turned out to be Skubal’s final start before free agency.
Skubal isn’t just the best pitcher available this offseason; he’s the best player by a wide margin. Since returning from flexor tendon surgery in July 2023, Skubal is 50-20 with a 2.47 ERA and 21.2 fWAR in 103 starts, establishing himself as the best starter in the game. What might that be worth on the open market?
Let’s take a look at how Skubal’s offseason might play out, recognizing that the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1 could have an impact on how teams and players approach free agency.
POTENTIAL SUITORS
DODGERS
The Dodgers can never be counted out when it comes to the top available free agents -- especially one they traded for during the season. Skubal and the Dodgers had a three-month trial period, getting to know each other on a first-hand basis, and while Los Angeles has nine players headed for free agency, none approaches the level of Skubal. The pitcher declined to discuss his free agency after the Dodgers were eliminated, but he did say of the club: “Incredible organization, incredible teammates, incredible fan base. Honored to wear the L.A. across your chest and on the hat.”
TIGERS
Although Detroit made the difficult decision to move Skubal before the Trade Deadline, the pitcher said he “would love to return” to the Tigers as a free agent. Could the Tigers shock the world by trading Skubal for three prospects in early August, then bringing him back with a monster free-agent deal only a few months later? It seems unlikely that the Tigers will get involved in a bidding war, so if Skubal is determined to get every last dollar, it probably won’t result in a return to the Motor City.
METS
After missing the playoffs for a second straight season, it’s impossible to predict how owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns will respond. Stearns has never been one to commit major years and dollars to a starting pitcher, but Skubal isn’t just any starter.
Could Cohen decide to hand out the biggest pitching deal in history to go along with the biggest overall deal (Juan Soto) in history? The Mets have a good, young pitching core with Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton and Christian Scott, but how valuable would it be to add Skubal to lead that group?
CUBS
With Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd and David Peterson all likely headed to free agency, Chicago will certainly be looking for starting pitching this offseason.
The biggest question is whether the Cubs will be willing to go outside of their comfort zone when it comes to the cost of acquiring Skubal, who will likely command at least twice as much as the biggest contracts in franchise history.
BLUE JAYS
Toronto has been in the middle of a number of high-profile free-agent pursuits in recent years, making plays for both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, so there is a track record in this area.
The Blue Jays finally closed the deal on a big fish last winter with the Dylan Cease signing, and given the Jays’ need for rotation help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them kick the tires on Skubal.
PHILLIES
Dave Dombrowski has never been shy about spending in free agency, so the Phillies are at least a dark horse candidate to make a play for Skubal. Zack Wheeler has one year remaining on his contract, and given the depth of Philadelphia’s rotation, the club could trade either Cristopher Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo to fill other holes if it added Skubal to the top of the rotation.
Scott Boras, who represents Skubal, has worked deals with Philly for Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker, while Jhoan Duran and Bryson Stott are also repped by Boras. The Phillies seem like a long shot to sign Skubal, but it’s not impossible.
BUYER BEWARE
It’s difficult to point to any performance-related red flags with Skubal, whose Statcast page is overloaded with top percentages. If there is anything to fear when it comes to giving Skubal a historic, nine-figure contract, it’s his elbow. The NanoScope surgery he underwent this season is a relatively new procedure, and having had Tommy John surgery in college and flexor tendon surgery in 2022, his history of arm trouble is certainly notable.
EXECUTIVE TAKE
“Obviously, he’s the best and most accomplished starting pitcher to hit free agency in a number of years. I think the main thing to keep an eye out for is the timing of his signing; I think labor uncertainty could stop big market teams from pursuing him with the same vigor as someone like [Juan] Soto, but the big question is whether or not Dec. 1 will be a deadline for him.”
FOR COMP'S SAKE
The record for largest guaranteed contract ever given to a pitcher is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 10-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the record for highest average annual value ($43.33 million). Based on conversations with executives and agents around the league, Skubal’s next deal could exceed both.