Inbox: Could the Giants favor an arm in the Draft?

We’re getting closer and closer to the start of the MLB Draft, now less than a month away. This is generally the calm before the storm period, especially with so few top Draft prospects in the finals of the College World Series. The MLB Pipeline crew will be in Phoenix next week for the Draft Combine, providing tons of content. And while the Combine doesn’t necessarily move the needle for the top of the first round, it is often a bit of a corner that’s turned in terms of teams figuring out what they’re going to do.

Jim Callis provides a snapshot of where that stands now with our most recent mock draft. Since most of my brain is focused on the July 11-12 Draft, most (but not all!) of the questions in this week’s MLB Pipeline Inbox focus on that event.

Not only did we answer this question to wrap up this week’s MLB Pipeline Podcast, we actually had Jackson Flora on as a guest, so be sure to check that out (no, we didn’t arrange for him to come on because we had this question, just a happy coincidence).

We used this question to throw out a bit of a boilerplate response to questions like this: Teams generally do not draft, especially when picking this high, based on need or strengths/weaknesses in their system. Is it possible the Giants decide to go the college pitching ranks and take Flora, the best arm in the class? Absolutely, and Flora should go somewhere in the 4-6 range. Perhaps if two players are on the same plane in their Draft room, that need for pitching could tip the scales a little bit, but assume the Giants scouting department will take the guy they think is the best overall player. They’d love for one of the top three – Roch Cholowsky, Grady Emerson, Vahn Lackey – to get to them at four, but right now that doesn’t seem likely, so they’ll be choosing from Jacob Lombard (the name most often associated with the Giants at No. 4), Flora and perhaps high school outfielder Eric Booth Jr.

Make sure you read Jim’s mock because he provides some nifty calculations about the odds of the different combinations of the top three prospects, with most believing Cholowsky, Emerson and Lackey will go in the top three in some order. I wouldn’t say that Lackey is “moving up” to the top pick because he’s long been in consideration, but I do think the chances of him going 1-1 have improved, though it’s considerably more likely that Cholowsky or Emerson grab that top spot.

But I’ll play along. If Lackey does go to the White Sox, that leaves the Rays a choice of the top college and high school shortstops in the class. They haven’t picked this high since 2017, when they took college two-way player Brendan McKay No. 4 overall. They’ve dabbled with college players in the years since, but do tend to lean high school, and hitter, in the first round. A very good argument could be made for either player, but the Rays farm system is strong, and it’s deep. So should this scenario play out, I think Emerson is the play for them at No. 2 over Cholowsky. They can be patient with his development, though there have been players of his caliber (Bobby Witt Jr., Konnor Griffin to name two) who come from the prep ranks and move faster than some college guys.

As mentioned above, there weren’t that many top prospects who made it to the World Series because there were so many upsets in Regional and Super Regional play. Even in Omaha, there were very few first-round candidates playing, and the top-ranked one, Justin Lebron, made an early exit with Alabama losing two straight. There doesn’t appear to be anyone like Gage Wood, who cemented his place in the first round with his 19-strikeout no-hitter in 2025, the greatest pitching performance in College World Series history. Or a Cade Horton, who had a huge postseason run after injuries had sidelined him to give the Cubs confidence in taking him No. 7 overall in 2022.

The one player who comes to mind as having helped himself of late the most is Georgia right-hander Joey Volchko. I would have loved to see the Bulldogs playing for a title, and not just to make Mr. Callis happy. Another Volchko gem under the spotlight would have added to what is already some pretty good upward trajectory. He’s ranked No. 73 currently, which is between Rounds 2 and 3 talent-wise.

A lot of things went well for him in his first year with Georgia after transferring from Stanford, with his spotty command and power-only arsenal holding him back a bit, but he found another gear in postseason play. Even though he wasn’t sharp in his Super Regional start, his numbers since the start of SEC Tournament play (4 starts) stand out: 25 IP, 18 H, 8 BB, 32 K, 2.16 ERA. He no-hit Long Island University for six innings, striking out 10, in Regional play, then did his best Gage Wood impression with a complete-game four-hitter, allowing just one unearned run and one walk while fanning 15. That probably doesn’t vault him into the first round, but the way he finished certainly should help him land at least in Round 2.

I wanted to squeeze in one Minor League prospect question, and the Braves’ Eric Hartman fascinates me, and not just because of the need to reference South Park (I’ll wait until you figure that one out). I dug into how the Braves scouted, drafted and signed the Canadian in the 20th round of the 2024 Draft earlier this month. He’s currently No. 18 on the Braves’ Top 30, but that’s going to change. He’s done everything he’s had to in order to push the organization’s hand to move him to Double-A: .940 OPS, 17 HR, 26 SB in 60 games with High-A Rome, and he’s hitting .309/.328/.564 in June. He’s even checking off boxes he needed to work on, like success against breaking stuff.

The main reason to pump the brakes a little is the fact he just turned 20 earlier this week (happy belated, Eric!), coming from the prep ranks from an area (Alberta) that isn’t exactly a hotbed of baseball competition. I think he’s going to see Double-A Columbus before the year is over, but there’s no reason to rush him.