How 10 teams can defy their playoff odds in '26

The 2025 Blue Jays are a good reminder that preseason projections are just that -- projections.

Toronto led off last year's iteration of this very story. The projection systems didn't give the Blue Jays much of a chance to reach the postseason, let alone win the pennant and come within a few skinny outs of a World Series title.

The 10 clubs below will turn to Toronto as inspiration entering the 2026 season. The odds are not in their favor, per FanGraphs' projected standings, which are based on a combination of the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, as well as Roster Resource's depth chart projections for playing time. But as the Blue Jays showed everyone, that doesn't mean it can't happen.

Here's what needs to happen for these 10 teams to defy the odds, which range from 37.5% to 13.6%. (Playoff odds are as of Tuesday).

Giants: 37.5%

Why the odds are against them: Ever since a 107-win campaign in 2021, the Giants have endured a bit of baseball purgatory, winning between 79 and 81 games in each of the last four seasons. Despite an active offseason, San Francisco failed to add a top-of-the-rotation starter, instead bringing in veterans Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle. That creates a bit of uncertainty in the rotation behind Logan Webb, while the bullpen -- lacking a surefire closer -- ranks T-29th in projected WAR for the upcoming season.

How they can defy the odds: The Giants haven’t ranked higher than 17th in the Majors in runs scored since 2022. But this year’s lineup has the talent to carry the team to a postseason berth. Seven different players are projected to be at least a league-average hitter (100 wRC+), including highly touted prospect Bryce Eldridge and bat-to-ball darling Luis Arraez, one of the more intriguing offseason additions in all of baseball. If Willy Adames looks like the player he did in the second half of last season -- when he posted an .828 OPS -- and Rafael Devers returns to true All-Star form, then this group won’t have any trouble generating more offense.

Rangers: 35.0%

Why the odds are against them: There's been a changing of the guard in the Rangers lineup after Texas hitters combined for a 92 wRC+ last season, which was tied with the Angels for the fifth-lowest mark in the Majors. Key parts of the 2023 World Series-winning team -- like Marcus Semien, Adolis García and Jonah Heim -- are gone, but is this offense going to be any better? There are still notable holes on the infield, where the Rangers rank 25th in projected WAR at catcher, 23rd at first base, 29th at second base and T-26th at third base.

How they can defy the odds: The Rangers were probably better than their record (81-81) would indicate last season, thanks to a +79 run differential that was made possible by a stalwart pitching staff. Once again, their starting rotation should be among the game's best. The rotation ranks sixth in projected WAR (14.9) after adding All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore in a six-player trade in January. Continued health from veterans Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi -- the latter pitched to a 1.73 ERA last season -- would make this an elite group.

So while the lineup may not have to score a ton of runs in order for Texas to be successful, there are still plenty of viable bounce-back candidates. Maybe the Rangers can get more from the trio of Joc Pederson, Jake Burger and Josh Jung, which combined for an 87 wRC+ in 2025 after posting a collective 123 wRC+ in 2024.

Astros: 34.7%

Why the odds are against them: Houston's eight-year streak of postseason appearances ended last season, with the Astros also failing to win the AL West for the first time since 2020. The bad news is that the division isn't getting any easier: The Mariners came within one win of the pennant, while the Rangers and Athletics both seem poised to contend for a playoff berth in 2026. At the least, the days of Houston waltzing into October seem over, as the team continues to endure a number of big-name departures -- whether it be Kyle Tucker last offseason, or steady left-hander Framber Valdez this go-around.

How they can defy the odds: Last year, the Astros ranked among the bottom 10 in runs scored, though that seems like an aberration. The club has 11 different players projected to have a 99 wRC+ or better (where 100 is average), with Yordan Alvarez leading the way. Hand and ankle injuries limited Alvarez to just 48 games last year, but he's one of the game's best hitters when healthy; FanGraphs projects him to post 4.4 WAR and a 156 wRC+ in the new season. Along with Alvarez, a full season from Carlos Correa -- who posted a .785 OPS and looked rejuvenated after returning to Houston at the Deadline last summer -- and a potential bounce-back from Christian Walker would help make this lineup elite.

Health is also important in the rotation, where Houston feels as if its assembled enough depth behind ace Hunter Brown. A strong debut season from Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai would give the Astros another high-upside arm, while the club is hoping Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti can move forward from injury-riddled seasons in 2025.

Twins: 31.7%

Why the odds are against them: The Twins reshaped their organization at last year’s Deadline, trading away Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, among other key pieces. The deals precipitated a 70-win campaign, the franchise’s lowest single-season win total since 2016. This year’s club enters Spring Training still searching for ways to fill those holes. The club ranks 30th in projected WAR at shortstop and lacks reliable right-handed arms at the back of its bullpen.

How they can defy the odds: After spending much of the offseason engulfed in trade rumors, the club’s marquee stars -- Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan -- are still with the team. Both will have to stay healthy for Minnesota to compete for a playoff spot. Elsewhere, the Twins have enough potential difference-makers to contend in the AL Central, if things break right. The best-case scenario includes plenty of at-bats from Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner, a strong debut from Walker Jenkins (MLB Pipeline’s No. 14 overall prospect), and continued growth from Luke Keaschall, who posted a 134 wRC+ in his rookie season.

The Twins will also need some of the organization's young arms to step up in the absence of Pablo López, who may be headed for Tommy John surgery after suffering a significant UCL tear earlier this week. The onus will likely fall on a group of three hurlers entering their age-25 seasons: Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, and Mick Abel.

D-backs: 31.6%

Why the odds are against them: Pitching looms as the biggest question mark in the desert. Arizona’s best bullpen arms -- Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk -- are each expected to miss a significant portion of the upcoming season while recovering from major elbow surgery. The D-backs had the fourth-highest bullpen ERA (4.82) last season, and FanGraphs ranks the team’s relievers T-27th in projected WAR (1.2).

How they can defy the odds: After surviving a relentless swarm of trade rumors, Ketel Marte will begin the 2026 season in Arizona. That keeps one of the league’s best top-of-the-order trios intact in Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo. FanGraphs projects each player to clear the 4-WAR threshold in 2026; the D-backs are one of just three teams (along with the Dodgers and the Mets) with three position players projected to accumulate at least 4.0 WAR. At minimum, that trio could propel Arizona towards its first postseason berth since winning the NL pennant in 2023. Healthy and productive seasons from Gabriel Moreno (117 wRC+ in 83 games) and Pavin Smith (123 wRC+ in 87 games) wouldn't hurt, either.

Re-signing Zac Gallen and re-uniting with Merrill Kelly should also give the D-backs enough rotation depth to hold things over until the All-Star break, when Corbin Burnes is expected to return from Tommy John surgery.

Athletics: 25.0%

Why the odds are against them: The A's won 76 games last season, clearing the 70-win threshold for the first time since 2021. They still have a ways to go in order to return to the postseason for the first time since 2020. The big concern here is pitching, considering the A's are one of two teams (along with the Rockies and Nationals) without a pitcher projected to reach the 2-WAR threshold. At the least, they'll need strong seasons from veterans Jeffrey Springs and Luis Severino. The relief corps is also somewhat of an unknown without star closer Mason Miller, who was flipped to the Padres at the Deadline last season.

How they can defy the odds: The Athletics have stockpiled an elite collection of young hitters, headlined by slugging first baseman Nick Kurtz, who put up numbers we haven't seen since Barry Bonds en route to winning the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year award. But this isn't just about Kurtz. Last season, only six teams hit more home runs than the A's (219), with Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom all hitting at least 29 long balls. Add in an encore from Jacob Wilson -- who started the All-Star game as a rookie -- and a rebound from Lawrence Butler (130 wRC+ in 2024), and this team will have the offensive firepower to compete with anyone.

Rays: 21.9%

Why the odds are against them: The Rays executed a fairly substantial offseason overhaul, parting ways with familiar faces like Brandon Lowe, Pete Fairbanks and Shane Baz and acquiring plenty of prospect capital. Meanwhile, the always-difficult American League East didn’t get any easier. According to their total WAR projections, FanGraphs thinks that four of the best nine teams in baseball reside in the AL East. The Blue Jays (48.1 WAR) lead the way, followed by the Yankees (47.5), Red Sox (46.1), and Orioles (45.5). Tampa Bay comes in at a more modest projection of 38.6 WAR, which ranks T-17th in the Majors.

How they can defy the odds: Even amid a two-year playoff drought, these are still the Rays, with a deserved reputation as one of the smartest organizations in baseball. As president of baseball operations Erik Neander said at Spring Training last week, they have a tendency to surprise people.

A healthy Shane McClanahan would certainly help. After spending nearly two-and-a-half years on the sidelines, the two-time All-Star is preparing to begin the year in the Rays’ rotation. The additions of veterans Steven Matz and Nick Martinez give this unit a particularly high floor. As far as the offense goes, 22-year-old Junior Caminero is a budding superstar after launching 45 home runs last season. Are there enough bats around him? The Rays need a full season from first-time All-Star Jonathan Aranda, as well as continued growth from 22-year-old Carson Williams and 25-year-old Chandler Simpson to round out a young group.

Padres: 21.8%

Why the odds are against them: Coming off back-to-back 90-win seasons, the Padres parted ways with a number of high-profile players in the offseason, losing Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez to free agency. Those absences could be difficult to overcome in the uber-competitive National League West. Right now, FanGraphs gives the Dodgers, Giants, and D-backs better odds to make the postseason than San Diego.

How they can defy the odds: There’s still plenty of starpower here, between Mason Miller anchoring a stalwart bullpen to Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado mashing in the middle of the lineup. But it’s the X-Factors who will determine San Diego’s ceiling. Entering his age-23 season, can Jackson Merrill resemble the five-WAR player who burst onto the scene as a star in the making in 2024? All-Star righty Joe Musgrove enters Spring Training healthy, but what will he look like on the other side of Tommy John surgery? And there’s a lot of pressure resting on the right arm of Michael King, who made just 15 starts last season after finishing seventh in NL Cy Young voting in 2024. Strong seasons from those three players could vault the Padres to the postseason for a third straight year.

Reds: 19.7%

Why the odds are against them: Even after reuniting with old friend Eugenio Suárez, the Reds lineup looks a bat or two short. Cincinnati’s position players rank 25th in projected WAR, despite a strong infield headlined by standout shortstop Elly De La Cruz. It’s the outfield that looks particularly weak, with the Reds ranking T-25th in projected WAR in left field, T-25th in center field, and 30th in right field.

How they can defy the odds: Cincinnati leaned on its starting pitchers to sneak into the postseason in 2025, and a similar formula could work this season. FanGraphs ranks the team’s rotation fifth in projected WAR (14.8). Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott are one of the best one-two punches in the Majors, while righty Chase Burns seems poised for a breakout year in his first full Major League campaign.

With a rotation this strong, the Reds don’t need a record-breaking offense to return to the postseason. There may be enough pieces in place, as is. Suárez, on the heels of a 49-homer season, gives the Reds legitimate thump, as does Sal Stewart, MLB Pipeline’s No. 22 overall prospect, who should break camp with the big league team. Most importantly, De La Cruz is healthy again after a nagging quadriceps injury hampered him for the final few months of the 2025 season.

Guardians: 13.6%

Why the odds are against them: Buoyed by a remarkable second-half surge, the Guardians captured their third AL Central crown in the last four years with an 88-74 record last season. But Cleveland had a relatively quiet offseason and did not pursue any significant upgrades to one of the league’s worst offenses in 2025. Last season, Guardians hitters combined for the third-worst wRC+ in the Majors. On top of that, the pitching staff -- typically a strength -- is somewhat of an unknown; FanGraphs ranks the team’s rotation 25th in projected WAR (10.0).

How they can defy the odds: For Cleveland to get where it wants to go in 2026, the impending youth movement will have to play a large role; the organization’s young position players have been given plenty of runway to do so. We should see MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects Travis Bazzana (No. 20) and Chase DeLauter (No. 46) at some point in 2026, with DeLauter likely to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder. Maybe Kyle Manzardo takes another step forward after a 27-homer campaign last season. A healthy George Valera -- the organization’s No. 1 prospect in 2022 -- showed flashes down the stretch in 2025. This has the makings of a promising core alongside perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez and All-Star Steven Kwan.

It’s also worth noting: This is just what the Guardians do, isn’t it? They have a knack for defying the odds, as they proved once again last season.