Moving up: Biggest gains on HOF ballot

January 26th, 2022

David Ortiz was the lone player elected to the Hall of Fame in the 2022 Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote, but a number of holdovers continue to make incremental progress toward potential enshrinement in Cooperstown.

Of the 17 holdovers from the 2021 ballot, nine players posted a higher percentage than they did a year ago. Excluding players who are set to fall off the ballot after their 10th year of eligibility, here are this year's biggest vote gainers.

Scott Rolen, 3B (+10.3 percentage points)
2022: 63.2% | 2021: 52.9%

A seven-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove Award winner, Rolen received 10.2% of the vote in his first year of eligibility but has steadily gained support on subsequent ballots.

Rolen, whose 70.1 bWAR ranks 10th among third basemen behind eight Hall of Famers and Adrián Beltré (first-time eligible in 2024), fell 47 votes shy of the 296 needed (out of 394 total ballots submitted) for election this year. With five years to go, he’s closer than anyone else on this list to reaching the 75% threshold.

Andruw Jones, CF (+7.2 percentage points)
2022: 41.1% | 2021: 33.9%

After Jones barely cleared the 5% threshold needed to remain on the ballot in each of his first two years of eligibility, his Hall of Fame candidacy has picked up steam the past three years.

Jones’ defensive reputation in center field is unassailable, but it remains to be seen if enough voters will come around on his offensive résumé to put him in the Hall. Jones was on a clear Hall of Fame path in his 20s, but from his age-30 season on, he hit .214 with a 92 OPS+ in 589 games, producing just 4.7 bWAR in that span. The five-time All-Star finished his career with 434 homers, including an MLB-leading 51 in 2005, but he didn’t reach the 2,000-hit mark and recorded a good-but-not-great 111 OPS+.

Todd Helton, 1B (+7.1 percentage points)
2022: 52.0% | 2021: 44.9%

Larry Walker’s election to the Hall of Fame in 2020 may have opened the door for another former Rockies great to make it, too, as Helton continues to trend upward. Walker stayed below 25% in each of his first seven years on the ballot before making a sizable leap over his final three years, but Helton has taken just four years to cross the 50% threshold, signifying a shift in how some voters view hitter-friendly Coors Field with regard to his production.

While Helton certainly benefited from playing home games in Colorado’s thin air his entire career, hitting .345/.441/.607 in Denver, he also posted a .287/.386/.469 slash line on the road and finished with an overall 133 OPS+ -- a figure that is park-adjusted to factor in the favorable offensive environment in which Helton played.

Billy Wagner, RP (+4.6 percentage points)
2022: 51.0% | 2021: 46.4%

While Trevor Hoffman went into the Hall of Fame on his third ballot, a reliever with a similar case continues to wait his turn. Hoffman recorded 179 more saves and threw 186 1/3 more innings, but Wagner has a better ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate and K/BB ratio, and the two have a nearly identical bWAR figure -- 28.1 for Hoffman and 27.8 for Wagner.

This marks the first time Wagner has earned at least 50% of the vote, and he has three years of BBWAA eligibility remaining to get to 75%.