5 wise wagers for this weekend's games

July 2nd, 2022

This article was contributed by DraftKings. For more sports betting insights, check out DraftKings.com.

Bad weather continues to be a challenge this weekend, but there are still plenty of betting options to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Follow along on Twitter (@Nick_Friar) for updates.

SATURDAY

Rockies vs. D-backs
The wager: Rockies minus 1.5 runs
Line
: +115 (bet $100 to win $115)

There are a lot of ways to bet on Colorado in this one, but the one that stands out above the rest is the run line. Of course, that means relying on Austin Gomber in some capacity, which isn’t ideal. But, the D-backs have been struggling against lefties since June’s midway point -- not a lot of hard contact and a limited amount of line drives. During that stretch, they’ve ranked among the bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching.

But, this play is all about Rockies hitters vs. Dallas Keuchel. The left-hander just made his return to MLB action with his new club -- and things did not go well. And that came against the Tigers, who are tough on left-handed pitching, but not to the level the Rockies are. Since June 15, Colorado has led all of baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching while also ranking sixth in ISO and eighth in hard-contact rate. Keuchel got bailed out by Arizona’s offense last time, but they won’t be able to help him to that degree again Saturday.

Red Sox at Cubs
The wager: Red Sox over 4.5 runs
Line
: -140 (bet $140 to win $100)

Things haven’t exactly been going Alec Mills’ way this season. He’s given up 19 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings -- 15 in his last 8 1/3. He’s surrendered seven home runs this season, which is only three shy of equaling the right-hander’s 2022 strikeout total. Backing the over on his earned runs total (2.5) is in play at a better payout, but there’s just the matter of how long Mills will last. What’s not in question, however, is how well the Red Sox will hit him on Saturday, having scored five-plus runs in 11 of their last 13 games.

SUNDAY

Rangers at Mets
The wager: Rangers moneyline
Line
: +120 (bet $120 to win $100)

Jon Gray has been cooking with gas. He punched out 44 over 37 2/3 innings throughout June, which helped him post a 2.39 ERA and 2.59 FIP. That led to four Rangers wins -- and another is in play on Sunday. The Mets ranks among the bottom 10 in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching since June 15.

Now, the Rangers have been middling against righties during that same stretch. But, Carlos Carrasco is in the midst of a nightmarish run. The right-hander has given up five-plus runs in three of his last five starts. He gave up seven home runs during that stretch, which helped lead to his 6.37 ERA and 5.35 FIP in June.

Orioles at Twins
The wager: Total under 9 runs
Line
: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)

The Twins have been hitting right-handed pitching well of late, but Tyler Wells continues to be very reliable for Batlimore. He’s not going to rack up strikeouts, but the right-hander is limiting the number of line drives from opposing hitters (15.9 percent) while generating a lot of soft contact (20.3 percent). And he’s done all this while taking on quality lineups like Boston and Toronto.

Similar sort of situation for Devin Smeltzer vs. Baltimore, except the Orioles are starting to cool down against left-handed pitching. They were tough on lefties at the start of June, but they’re 26th in wOBA and second-to-last in line-drive rate against lefties since mid-June. Smeltzer had the one hiccup in June, but he’s been very reliable for the Twins this season.

Athletics at Mariners
The wager: Total under 7 runs
Line
: +100 (bet $100 to win $100)

This is an alarmingly low total, but two horses are going toe-to-toe Sunday. More importantly, Frankie Montas is facing a Mariners lineup that’s bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching since June 15, while Robbie Ray is facing an Oakland lineup that’s bottom two in ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching during that same time span.

Moreover, Montas' starts have gone under this total 11 times in 16 chances this season. That hasn’t happened as frequently in Ray's starts, but the under on this total has hit in three of his last four starts as the left-hander has found his groove.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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