These FA relievers would fit for Blue Jays

December 15th, 2020

TORONTO -- If there’s one corner of the offseason market that the Blue Jays have consistently hit on, it’s lower- and middle-tier relief pitchers.

Stretching back through the last several seasons, the Blue Jays have done well with one-year deals or Minor League signings, typically below $3 million. In down years, those pitchers have become valuable chips at the Trade Deadline. In competitive seasons, like 2020, arms like , and have been valuable -- and affordable -- bullpen pieces.

The Blue Jays' expected payroll flexibility this offseason gives them the option to shop at the top end of the market if they choose, where they’d find names like , , , and others. That would be a significant shift in strategy, though, from a team that’s known more for sticking to its set process.

The Blue Jays do have a type, though. Adding velocity to the bullpen is a priority, and the Blue Jays have targeted high-spin fastball-throwers in the past. Experience closing games is another trait the Blue Jays are attracted to, and the list goes on from there.

“First and foremost, durability is everything,” GM Ross Atkins said earlier this offseason. “The ability to execute fastball strikes, having secondary weapons, two pitches that are on the plate consistently with swing-and-miss ability. Guys that are pitching the 55 to 70 innings year in and year out, and consistently are able to get very good hitters out in leverage situations are the things we’re looking for.”

A move from the bottom tier to the middle tier of the relief market should be realistic this winter, which unlocks more upside for the Blue Jays. Here’s a look at five veteran relievers who fit that model, but also wouldn’t require the Blue Jays to stray as far from their past practices. Statistics for each player are from the 2020 season.

RHP (2.95 ERA, 8.8 K/9)

Non-tendered by the Reds this offseason, Bradley entered the free agent market as an attractive bullpen option after pitching well over 16 appearances in 2020. Bradley broke through as a starter with the D-backs back in '15, but has found his footing as a reliever and brings some closing experience, which the Blue Jays always value, from '19, when he saved 18 games. He saved six last season between Arizona and Cincinnati, seeing plenty of high-leverage work.

Bradley’s velocity dipped a touch from 2019 to 2020, with his average fastball going from 95.5 mph to 94.2 mph, and while it doesn’t have the high spin rate the Blue Jays like to target, he’s made it work. He’s also coming off a career-low walk rate of just 1.5 per nine innings, but even if he can keep that in the 2.5 range, where he sat in '17 and '18, that fulfills the Blue Jays' stated goal to improve their strike throwing.

LHP (2.66 ERA, 14.6 K/9)

Blue Jays fans will remember McGee, now 34, from his six seasons with the Rays (2010-15). McGee was great and, at times, completely dominant with the Rays, but that success didn’t carry over to his four seasons with the Rockies. The lefty bounced back in '20 with the Dodgers, though, pitching to a 2.66 ERA with some of the most impressive peripherals among free-agent relievers. Over 20 1/3 innings, he struck out 33 batters and walked just three.

McGee brings some experience in the closer’s role and, despite being a lefty, there aren’t any drastic splits to worry about. McGee has held right-handed hitters to a .659 OPS over his career compared to .699 from left-handed hitters. His fastball velocity also jumped back up in '20, averaging 94.9 mph, which is important given how heavily he leans on that pitch.

RHP (2.78 ERA, 5.6 K/9)

Melancon doesn’t light up the radar gun or wow you with Statcast numbers, but there’s something to be said for a reliever who, year after year, just gets the job done. The 12-year MLB veteran will turn 36 just prior to Opening Day and has 205 career saves to go with 20 career postseason appearances, all of which should appeal to the Blue Jays. There’s an expectation that the uncertainties around where the Blue Jays will play in 2021 could matter more to veterans with other options, though, so that will be a factor with relievers later in their careers.

RHP (1.90 ERA, 14.5 K/9)

Rosenthal returned from Tommy John surgery in 2019, but he was officially “back” in '20. Rosenthal, once one of the game’s best young closers after saving 93 games for the Cardinals between '14 and '15, finally returned to that form with the Royals and Padres last summer, pitching to a 1.90 ERA. The track record is there and, if clubs think Rosenthal can hold up over a 162-game season, there’s plenty of value there, too. Rosenthal offers a combination of fastball velocity and spin that was elite in 2020, averaging 97.9 mph.

RHP (12.46 ERA, 16.6 K/9)

Free agency came at the wrong time for Yates. In 2019, he was one of the best pitchers in the game, posting a 1.19 ERA with 41 saves and a whopping 15 strikeouts per nine innings. Then, '20 came, and Yates is now an example of just how volatile the position of relief pitcher can be.

Yates underwent surgery late in the season to address bone chips in the back of his elbow. That’s a minor surgery, relatively speaking, and one that Yates should be able to rebound from, but it's still something that clubs will need to examine. When Yates is healthy, his splitter is elite and his fastball can live in the mid-90s, so while there’s plenty of risk involved, the upside to Yates is as high as anyone on the relief market.

Worth mentioning: A.J. Cole, Anthony Bass

Bass and Cole both pitched some valuable innings for the Blue Jays in 2020, and there is interest in bringing one or both back. This won’t necessarily be a move you see tomorrow, but as the offseason plays out, the Blue Jays could very well circle back to these two known commodities to fill a middle-relief role or compete for a job. Similar to Robbie Ray, who signed a one-year, $8 million deal to stay with the Blue Jays, the simple analysis here is that the club liked them for a reason, and they haven’t done anything to change that.