Braves hosting Nats for critical NL East series

Washington heads to Atlanta trailing by seven games in the division

September 5th, 2019

ATLANTA -- Since May 24, the Braves and Nationals have won more consistently than anyone else in the Major Leagues. One of these National League East rivals is bidding for a second straight division crown, while the other is hoping to overcome a deficit that has proven insurmountable all but three times during the divisional era (since 1969).

When the Braves welcome the second-place Nationals to SunTrust Park for the opener of a four-game series on Thursday (7:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV), they will be attempting grow their NL East lead, which grew to seven games after Washington fell to the Mets on Wednesday. Per Elias, the only three division winners in MLB history to overcome a deficit of seven games or greater on Aug. 31 or later are the 1995 Mariners (7 1/2 games), the 2007 Phillies and the 2009 Twins (both seven).

“It will be the biggest game to date on Thursday,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “Anytime we play that club, it’s a dogfight and tough. It’s two good teams going at it.”

The Nationals have produced an MLB-best .670 winning percentage since May 24. But within this 88-game stretch, they have gained just 1 1/2 games on the Braves, who have produced MLB’s second-best winning percentage (.652) in that span.

How we got here

The most important stretch of this year’s NL East race occurred between May 10-23. The Braves (18-20) and Nationals (15-22) both exited May 9 with losing records. But in winning 10 of the next 13 games, Atlanta gained 6 1/2 games on Washington, who finished that stretch of games getting swept in four games by the Mets.

Still, the decisive portion of this race will unfold over these next two weekends. After the Braves host the Nationals for four games starting Thursday, they then travel to Nationals Park for a three-game set that begins Sept. 13.

The Nationals, who enter this series with 24 games remaining, will attempt to follow the same path as the 2007 Phillies, who trailed the Mets by seven games with 17 games remaining and then celebrated a division title on the regular season’s final day. Philadelphia won 13 of those final 17 games, including each of the three they played against the Mets.

“I think we match up really well with [the Braves],” Nationals closer Sean Doolittle said. “We’ve played some really close games against them this year. But I really don’t know. We’ve got four down there in their ballpark, but I think we’re making a mistake if we start saying, ‘We have to win X out of X of these games to put ourselves in position.’ We’ve just got to go take it one game at a time. I know it sounds really cliché, but they’re too good for us to take a big-picture approach. We’ve got to break it down and keep playing good baseball.”

Freddie Freeman certainly doesn’t need to be reminded the Braves haven’t guaranteed anything with 22 games remaining. He was part of the 2011 Braves, who were 8 1/2 games in front of the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card race at this exact point of the season. That injury-depleted Atlanta club ended the season by losing 13 of its last 18 games, which began with three straight losses to the Cardinals, who beat a club managed by current Braves third-base coach Ron Washington that year in the World Series.

Season series

The Nationals won their first three games against the Braves this season, but they have dropped six of the past nine matchups. Five games have been determined by one run, and the Nationals have been on the winning side of the only two lopsided outcomes -- May 29, when Kevin Gausman allowed eight runs in one inning, and July 18, when Kyle Wright allowed seven earned runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Neither team has produced impressive pitching statistics during this year’s head-to-head matchups. Nationals starters have an ERA of 5.02 and a 5.83 ERA out of the bullpen against Atlanta, while the Braves' starters have a 6.67 ERA and their bullpen a 5.40 ERA vs. Washington.

But the Nationals will be seeing a different Braves pitching staff. Gausman is now with the Reds, while Wright is at the Triple-A level. As for the Braves' bullpen, it has been reconstructed since these teams last met; Atlanta’s relievers have an MLB-best 2.33 ERA dating back to Aug. 17.

Series probables

vs. (Thursday): Strasburg recorded 11 strikeouts over seven innings against Atlanta on May 28 and the Nationals have won each of the three games he’s started against the Braves this year. Freeman has a 1.070 career OPS in 66 plate appearances against Strasburg, but he’s 2-for-8 with a double against him this year. Fried has tallied two of his three career double-digit strikeout games within his past five starts.

vs. (Friday): Corbin allowed two earned runs in both of his two previous starts against Atlanta, neither of which lasted more than six innings. Keuchel has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 10 1/3 innings this season vs. Washington, but he has allowed just three runs over his past 25 innings.

vs. (Saturday): Ross got beat up in a one-inning relief appearance against Atlanta in June and then allowed the Braves three runs over 5 1/3 innings on July 21. No longer having to deal with Bryce Harper as a National, Teheran has limited Washington to three runs over 12 1/3 innings (two starts).

vs. (Sunday): Soroka ranks second in the NL with a 2.53 ERA, and Scherzer ranks third with a 2.60 ERA. This battle between NL Cy Young Award candidates is a fitting way to conclude what should be a very entertaining and important series.