Finding the best free-agent fits for Hosmer

Finding the best free-agent fits for Hosmer

From 30 to 1, we count down every Major League team

November 21st, 2017

may be the offseason's most interesting free agent, simply because he might be the player with the future that's most difficult to predict.
In the last six seasons, three would be considered to be strong years (2013, '15, '17). He's won four Gold Glove Awards, yet most advanced defensive metrics don't consider him elite. Hosmer has a reputation as a winner with a strong clubhouse presence, yet when the Royals won it all in 2015, he hit just .212/.236/.288 that October. And in a world where hitters are trying to elevate, he had one of the highest ground-ball rates in the game.
But Hosmer has youth on his side (compared to most free agents), having only turned 28 in October, and he's coming off what's without question the best year of his career, a strong .318/.385/.498 season. Someone's going to give him a long-term deal, but who? With , , , and Mitch Moreland also out there, there's no shortage of first basemen on the market.
Still, he's going to land somewhere. As we did last year with and others, let's figure out where -- this time, counting down from 30 to 1.

The Teams With a Star First Baseman
30. Cubs
29. D-backs
28. Reds
27. Braves
26. Dodgers
25. Tigers
Don't overthink the individual numbering within any group here, because they don't matter. This group, with , , Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, and , comprises the teams who already have a first baseman they're extremely happy with. And yes, we're including here, despite a down year by his standards; one poor season doesn't make him replaceable, and the rebuilding Tigers aren't in position to upgrade upon him right now anyway.

The Teams With a Good Enough First Baseman
24. Brewers
23. Padres
22. Nationals
21. White Sox
20. Blue Jays
19. Astros
18. Giants
17. Twins
16. Orioles
15. Rangers
14. Marlins
There's a wide variety of hitters in this group, from "solid veterans" like Joe Mauer and to "big contracts" like Chris Davis and to "2017 breakouts" like and to "lefty power bats" in and Joey Gallo.
These are where your s and live, in the zone where Hosmer might or might not be an upgrade in certain situations -- Bour, for example, just put up a .902 OPS, better than Hosmer's .882 -- but contractual or roster concerns make a serious pursuit unlikely. Could the Rangers, for example, sign Hosmer and push Gallo to the outfield and/or then to third base when retires? Sure. Does it take priority over their clear need for starting pitching? Probably not.

The Teams With Young First Basemen Of the Future
13. Pirates
12. Phillies
11. A's
Is Hosmer better than Josh Bell, , or ? Maybe. Maybe not. Regardless, it's hard to see the Pirates, Phillies, or A's getting into the Hosmer sweepstakes, based on their payrolls and other needs.
The Team With A Young First Baseman Of the Future, But Who Are Also the Yankees
10. Yankees
We're splitting the Yanks out here because they're a perfect fit in so many ways, from the lefty-friendly nature of their ballpark to the fact that nearly $60 million worth of , Alex Rodriguez, and are off their books to the fact their 2017 first basemen, primarily Chris Carter but also , Greg Bird, , and others, hit just .244/.317/.444.
Yet there's a strong case to be made not to give up on Bird, who hit a strong .261/.343/.529 in 178 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015, then missed all of '16 and most of '17 due to injury. He remains unproven, yet did hit .253/.316/.575 with eight homers in 98 plate appearances after returning from surgery on Aug. 26, then had a big postseason, hitting .244/.426/.512 with three October homers.

The Teams Hosmer Could Improve, But Who May Not Be After Him
9. Mariners
8. Mets
7. Rays
6. Indians
5. Angels
In this group, Hosmer would represent an on-field upgrade over the incumbent, yet for various reasons, it's difficult to see it actually happening. The Mariners just acquired from the A's last week to be their primary first baseman, and the Mets seem more interested in an outfielder/first base type who can provide insurance for , rather than replacing him outright.
The Indians still maintain hope that Santana will return after declining a Qualifying Offer, but if he doesn't, one of the other first basemen on the market -- like Duda or Morrison -- seems a more likely fit to share time at first and DH with , given they won't require the same kind of long-term commitment that Hosmer will, and has experience there too. Similarly, the Rays are more likely to stick with Brad Miller or a second-level free agent while waiting for prospect than to go into the Hosmer level of contract.
In Anaheim, it's not so much that Hosmer isn't better than the group of , C.J. Cron, , and -- he is -- as it is that the Angels have larger needs at third base and the mound.
The Teams Who Could Use A Bat And Could Shift Their Incumbent First Baseman
4. Rockies
With a free agent, the Rockies first base depth chart consists of , who had a disappointing first year in Denver (.274/.326/.375, 7 homers) and 23-year-old rookie . Each can play other positions, and Desmond probably profiles best as a flexible infielder/outfielder. While this feels unlikely, it was clear last summer Colorado needed to add a bat, and it's still true, with Reynolds, , and all free agents. If the Rockies want to make a splash around a promising young pitching staff, this is how you do it.
3. Cardinals
We know the Cardinals are trying to improve their offense, because they've made it extremely clear in how aggressive they've been in trying to get . If they don't get Miami's slugger, then a possible Plan B is to flip the versatile Matt Carpenter back to third base, where he's started over 400 games, and turn back into the flexible infield backup he profiles best as.
The Most Obvious Free Agent Fit

  1. Red Sox
    No other contender has such a clear need, with Moreland off to free agency, more of a DH and still unproven. No other contender needs power as badly, as Boston finished last in the American League in home runs, and the Pesky Pole is always appealing for lefty hitters. Is this so obvious that it can't actually happen? The one roadblock here is the Red Sox may prefer to sign J.D. Martinez or trade for Stanton, and fill first base in another way.
    The Best Fit of All
    1. Royals
    If there's 28 imperfect fits, and only one new clearly good free agent fit, then perhaps the strongest fit of all is… right back where Hosmer started. Kansas City has long known that with Hosmer, , and Mike Moustakas all hitting free agency this year (along with since-departed relievers and Greg Holland), it would lose the core of its 2015 World Series championship team. But the club also indicated it would like to retain at least one, and Hosmer might just be the best fit, for all the reasons laid out here and more. It's unlikely, after all, that is the everyday first baseman in 2018.