How Swanson turned slow start into career year

July 16th, 2022

The No. 1 pick in the 2015 Draft, Dansby Swanson has been as solid as they come at shortstop over the past seven seasons. While he’s never hit quite as well as one would expect from a top pick, he’s been a staple in the Braves' lineup since late 2016. Last year marked a possible turning point for him, though. In his age-27 season, Swanson set career highs in home runs with 27, RBIs with 88 and games played at 160. He capped off the year by helping his hometown Braves win the World Series for the first time since 1995.

In 2022, expectations were high for Swanson, to say the least. And yet, he stumbled out of the gate in the opening month, slashing .216/.293/.351 with just one homer and an NL-high 30 strikeouts in 21 games. Those struggles extended into the start of May; through 32 games, Swanson had just two homers and 42 K’s in what looked to be his worst offensive season to date.

Fast-forward to now, and who would have thought that Swanson would be named an All-Star for the first time in his career? What looked like a nightmare season has turned into a dream, as he entered Friday with a line of .293/.350/.483 with 15 homers and 52 RBIs on the year. That’s been huge for the Braves, whose season has mirrored Swanson’s: After a 15-17 start, Atlanta has gone 40-20 to turn the NL East race with the Mets into a tight one. Not only is he heading to the Midsummer Classic, but he may also be headed toward a huge payday, as Swanson is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the season.

So, what’s changed for Swanson?

He’s hitting the ball harder and in the air

Since May 13, Swanson has put up absurd numbers. His expected batting average (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG) -- both of which are based on quality of contact -- are .303 and .590, respectively, in that span. Before May 13, he had a .234 xBA and .452 xSLG. His hard-hit rate, which is the rate at which he records an exit velocity of at least 95 mph on batted balls, has climbed from 43.1% to 46.2%. Prior to 2022, Swanson had never had a hard-hit rate higher than 42.7% in a season.

That hard contact is only half the equation, though. In 2022, Swanson has both the lowest ground-ball rate of his career so far at 34%, which beats out his 37.3% rate from 2019, and the highest fly-ball rate at 32.8%, higher than 29.3% he had in 2020. To start the year, his ground-ball rate was closer to 40%, but since he flipped the switch in mid-May, it’s been about 31%. And when he's hitting ground balls, Swanson is hitting them hard -- around one-third of his grounders have had an exit velocity of 95+ mph.

He’s crushing low pitches

Swanson is covering the entire plate better than he has throughout his career as well. He struggled to drive pitches in the lower third of the zone prior to 2022, hitting .258 with just 10 home runs against them through ‘21. He struggled hitting the low strike again at the start of the year, with a .194 average and .306 slugging in his first 32 games. But since mid-May, he’s been one of the most dangerous hitters on pitches down in the zone, batting .433 and slugging nearly .620 since May 13.

He’s hitting right-handed pitching better

Swanson has never had a large platoon split. Entering 2022, he had a .250 average against righties and a .244 average against lefties, with a slugging percentage above .400 against both. At the start of the year, he struggled against right-handed opponents, batting under .200. Since May 13, though, he’s been one of the game’s premier hitters against righties. Among all right-handed batters with at least 75 at-bats against same-handed pitching since then, his .326 average ranks eighth and his .533 slugging ranks 12th. The only players to rank in the top 15 in both other than Swanson? Alejandro Kirk, Paul Goldschmidt, C.J. Cron and Austin Riley, three of whom are joining him at the Midsummer Classic.

He’s improved against fastballs

One of the big adjustments Swanson has made this season has been against fastballs. He entered the year with above-average numbers against the heater, hitting .283 with a .474 slugging percentage, but never had eye-popping stats there. To start the year, it was more of the same. He hovered around his career averages, with his slugging slightly higher at an even .500 across his first 32 games.

Since then, he’s been on a tear when facing fastballs. His .347 average in that span is tied for the 17th highest in MLB, and his .627 SLG is 17th. All but two of his 14 home runs have come against fastballs -- that's already the third most he’s had in a season. He’s actually been getting a little unlucky as well, as his xSLG stands just under .700.

With all of his improvements, Swanson is headed to L.A. for the 2022 All-Star Game, something that should only help him in the coming offseason. There will be a few other big fish in the next free-agent shortstop class, with Trea Turner set to hit the market, as well as possibly Carlos Correa, who has a player option. Swanson is an Atlanta-area native, so surely the Braves will want to keep him around, but as we saw with Freddie Freeman last offseason, anything can happen. With Swanson finally living up to his No. 1 Draft pick status, he’ll be one of the marquee names to watch in the next free-agent class.