Now that the Padres have signed Eric Hosmer, four of the nine free agents who rejected qualifying offers from their former teams this offseason have found new homes, with Lorenzo Cain (Brewers), Wade Davis (Rockies) and Carlos Santana (Phillies) being the others.
The five who remain unsigned are Jacob Arrieta (Cubs), Alex Cobb (Rays), Greg Holland (Rockies), Lance Lynn (Cardinals) and Mike Moustakas (Royals). Depending on which clubs sign Cobb, Holland and Moustakas, and for how much, there are eight different ways the order of the first round of the 2018 Draft could pan out.
• 2018 Draft order | 2018 Draft: June 4-6 | All-time Draft picks
Those eight permutations are laid out below. But first, an explanation of how the compensation system works:
Under the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement, if a team made a qualifying offer to a player who then signed elsewhere, it got a supplemental Draft pick after the end of the first round. It's no longer so simple.
Under the new rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then it receives a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A if the lost player signs for at least $50 million. If the player signs for less than $50 million, though, the compensation pick comes after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.
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The Rays, Rockies and Royals are among the 16 teams that fall under this category, so they stand to receive either a pick at the end of the first round or after Competitive Balance Round B if Cobb, Holland or Moustakas sign with another team, depending on how much they sign for.
If the team that loses the free agent does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick comes after Competitive Balance Round B, regardless of the value of the player's contract.
The Cubs and Cardinals are among the nine teams that fall into this category and will therefore receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B for Arrieta and Lynn if they sign elsewhere.
There is a third category, for teams that went over the luxury-tax threshold (they receive a pick after the fourth round), but none of those five teams -- the Dodgers, Giants, Nationals, Tigers and Yankees -- made a qualifying offer to a player.
Below are eight different scenarios for how the first round of this year's Draft could be affected by these signings. The specific Draft pick numbers would only change if any of the teams that get a compensation pick at the end of the first round (the Rays, Royals, Indians and potentially the Rockies) were to sign one of the remaining free agents and thereby lose its compensation pick as a penalty.
If Cobb, Moustakas and Holland all sign for $50m+:
• Rays get pick No. 31 for Cobb
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Royals get 33, 34 and 35 for Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas
• Rockies get pick No. 36 for Holland
• Indians get pick No. 37 for Santana
If Moustakas and Holland sign for $50m+ but Cobb does not:
• Royals get 31, 33 and 34 for Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Rockies get pick No. 35 for Holland
• Indians get pick No. 36 for Santana
If Moustakas and Cobb sign for $50m+ but Holland does not:
• Rays get pick No. 31 for Cobb
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Royals get 33, 34 and 35 for Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas
• Indians get pick No. 36 for Santana
If Cobb and Holland sign for $50m+ but Moustakas does not:
• Rays get pick No. 31 for Cobb
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Royals get 33 and 34 for Cain and Hosmer
• Rockies get pick No. 35 for Holland
• Indians get pick No. 36 for Santana
If Moustakas signs for $50m+ but Cobb and Holland do not:
• Royals get 31, 33 and 34 for Cain, Hosmer and Moustakas
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Indians get pick No. 35 for Santana
If Cobb signs for $50m+ but Moustakas and Holland do not:
• Rays get No. 31 for Cobb
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Royals get 33 and 34 for Cain and Hosmer
• Indians get pick No. 35 for Santana
If Holland signs for $50m+ but Moustakas and Cobb do not:
• Royals get 31 and 33 for Cain and Hosmer
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Rockies get pick No. 34 for Holland
• Indians get pick No. 35 for Santana
If neither Cobb, Moustakas nor Holland signs for $50m+:
• Royals get 31 and 33 for Cain and Hosmer
• Rays get No. 32 (locked as comp for 2017 unsigned pick)
• Indians get pick No. 34 for Santana