Cubs proving too dependent on the dinger

Pederson's two homers provide only offense for Chicago, extending a recent trend

June 19th, 2021

CHICAGO -- Two pitches into the opening frame on Friday night, had the Wrigley faithful roaring. He ripped a homer just over the wall in right-center and did his tongue-wagging, jersey-tugging, stutter-stepping antics around the basepaths.

The fans ate it up the first time, and then again when Pederson launched another solo shot in the third inning. By the end of the night, the issue was that those blasts represented the only runs for the Cubs in what devolved into a 10-2 loss to the Marlins.

"I don't really care how we score runs," Cubs manager David Ross said. "It's that we win games and that we do score. I think, at times, you're going to go through moments where you hit home runs and you score some runs. You've got to get guys on base in front of the home runs. That matters, right?"

There were other problems within the confines of this particular contest -- most notably the career-high eight runs surrendered by starter -- but the offensive output continued a recent trend for Chicago. The Cubs' contact rate has declined of late and, as Ross alluded, the versatile offense on display in May has reverted back to relying heavily on home runs.

Including Pederson's two homers, the Cubs' last 11 runs have come via the long ball, dating back to Monday's game against the Mets in New York. The last time Chicago scored a run in another manner was in the third inning on Sunday, when Anthony Rizzo delivered an RBI single in a 2-0 win over the Cardinals.

"The game's hard. It's a long season," said Pederson, who then reminded that the Cubs enjoyed a productive five-game winning streak last week. "We just won a bunch of games in a row -- led by our offense. If we did that the whole year, we'd win 120 games. That's just not realistic."

One explanation for the recent shift in offensive approach has been the absence of a pair of contact-based bats. Since May 26, both Nico Hoerner and Matt Duffy have been shelved on the injured list. While they were not powering the offense in May, they did help reshape the way the group operated after joining the lineup regularly in late April.

"No doubt. The contact has definitely played into a lot of success," Ross said before Friday's loss. "It's not only the hits and the balls that they drive in that fall, it's the tough at-bats, the extra work the pitcher goes through. It's the walk that they may take or the bloop that may turn on to the next guy. It's not an easy out."

Ross would slot Duffy (90.6 percent contact rate and 112 wRC+) in and around the heart of the order to split up the run producers with his contact and on-base ability. Hoerner (81.4 percent and 130 wRC+) often found a home in the lower third of the order to lengthen things out.

The Cubs had a .697 OPS as a team in April with a 73.1 percent contact rate. Those numbers jumped to .765 and 76.7 percent in Chicago's 19-win May. Going into Friday, the Cubs had a .634 OPS and 73.2 percent contact rate in June.

"We've just got to move the baseball around, make a little more contact," Ross said. "I think we're getting some good at-bats at times -- just not able to string it together there throughout the lineup."

While Duffy's comeback from a lower back strain recently slowed down, Hoerner (left hamstring) went through a full workout prior to Friday's game at Wrigley Field. He is still building up to full speed with his running, but he has been happy with his progress of late.

Both players will need a Minor League rehab assignment before rejoining the big league roster.

"Obviously, you want to be back out there as soon as you can," Hoerner said. "But I don't help the team very much if I'm not moving well. My legs are a big part of my game on both sides of the ball."

In the meantime, the Cubs have done what they could to ride the hot hand of Patrick Wisdom, who has nine homers and a .762 slugging percentage in 23 games. That said, he also came into the night with a 59 percent contact rate.

With both Hoerner and David Bote (10-day IL, left shoulder) out, the Cubs have been leaning on a combination of Sergio Alcántara (76.4 percent contact rate and 142 wRC+) and Eric Sogard (90.7 percent and 65 wRC+) at second base.

"We definitely miss those guys," said Ross, when asked about Hoerner and Duffy. "I'm not trying to diminish what the replacements have given, for sure. I think they've carried a heavy load and done a phenomenal job.

"But I think over time, for us to be the offense that we're capable of being, that you saw when we went on that run in May, I think that those guys play a huge role in that."

Pederson chalked up this recent stretch to one of those brief setbacks within a long season. He did not equate it to Chicago's historically cold April in the batter's box.

"We're going to keep going, just like we did at the start of the year," he said. "I think that was rock bottom. So we'll just keep trending up."