10 players thankful for unlikeliest hits of 2018

November 21st, 2018

Everyone's got something to be thankful for on Thanksgiving, even a Major Leaguer. And when theses hitters sit down for their Thanksgiving dinner, they should have some choice moments in mind.
Yes, in honor of the holiday, it's time to look back at some of the luckiest hits of the year. Whether they got lost in the lights or found a hole or somehow carried over the fence when they had no business doing so, they counted in the box score all the same. And the players who got the credit on their stat sheet should be plenty thankful for that.
Here are 10 players who should be thankful for some of the unlikeliest hits of the 2018 MLB season.
Tony Kemp
Thankful for: Minute Maid
Statcast™ hit probability: four percent
Minute Maid Park has given us some crazy playoff home runs in the last couple of years. In 2017, there was Carlos Correa's 48-degree-launch-angle moonshot to the Crawford Boxes, the highest postseason home run since Statcast™ started tracking in 2015. This season, it was Kemp's turn. In Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, the light-hitting Astros outfielder knocked a go-ahead home run off Rick Porcello that just barely cleared the wall in the right-field corner. It had an exit velocity of just 89.7 mph -- the softest-hit postseason home run in the four years of Statcast™ tracking -- and a launch angle of 36 degrees, resulting in a hit probability of just four percent.
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Thankful for: Ballparks with character
Hit probability: 14 percent
Fenway Park is the oldest stadium in Major League Baseball, and its unique design produces hits that couldn't happen anywhere else. One that stood out this season: Bradley's bases-clearing double off Gerrit Cole in Game 2 of the ALCS. With an exit velocity of 95.7 mph, it was a hard-hit ball (95-plus mph is the baseline), but the 36-degree launch angle was high enough that normally it would be a routine flyout. Instead, down the left-field line at Fenway, it clanged off the Green Monster… and that wasn't the end of it. The ball bounced onto a ledge along the left-field side wall and rolled along back toward the infield, with left fielder Marwin Gonzalez in confused pursuit.

David Freese
Thankful for: October magic
Hit probability: 13 percent
There's something about Freese and the postseason. Six years after his memorable Fall Classic heroics for the Cardinals, Freese had another great World Series for the Dodgers, even though it came in a losing effort. With Los Angeles facing elimination in Game 5, Freese knocked a leadoff home run off David Price in the bottom of the first. But his next time up, he was helped out by a little bit of luck. Freese skied a high fly ball to right field at Dodger Stadium that should have been a can of corn for J.D. Martinez… except Martinez lost the ball in the lights. It plopped to the ground over his head just in front of the warning track, and Freese hustled around the bases for his second career postseason triple. You might remember the first.

Giancarlo Stanton
Thankful for: Reaching milestones
Hit probability: seven percent
Stanton has hit a 504-foot home run. He's hit a 121.7 mph home run. And then there was this: the big slugger's 1,000th career hit. On May 25, Stanton reached the milestone with just about the least Stantonian hit you could imagine -- a 66.3 mph, 54-degree bloop into shallow right field at Nationals Park. The ball landed perfectly between first baseman Mark Reynolds, second baseman Howie Kendrick and right fielder Bryce Harper. Of Stanton's 350 non-ground ball hits since Statcast™'s introduction, that was Stanton's third-softest, and it was the softest of his 104 such hits with the Yankees.

Edwin Encarnacion
Thankful for: Wacky caroms
Hit probability: one percent
If you had to pick someone to hit an inside-the-park home run, Encarnacion might be one of the last names on the list. But on April 2, the Indians' big bopper did just that. Encarnacion's 91.9 mph, 43-degree fly would have been an out in almost any other circumstance -- it wasn't hit hard, and it was hit way too high. But it arced to just the right part of Angel Stadium, the left-field corner, where the wall bends in to its shallowest point. It struck the wall just below the foul pole -- and just out of the reach of Justin Upton -- and caromed along the warning track out into left field. Encarnacion chugged all the way around the bases (his sprint speed was just 24.9 ft/sec, more than two feet per second slower than the 27 ft/sec league average), ending up with one of the unlikeliest inside-the-parkers you'll see ... on a ball that had a hit probability of one percent.

Sandy Leon
Thankful for: Catwalks
Hit probability: 18 percent
When someone hits a ball off the catwalks that sit beneath the Tropicana Field dome, it can lead to some slapstick baseball. Leon's 105.0 mph, 44-degree towering fly on May 22 created chaos when it clanged off one of the catwalk rings and rebounded all the way back toward the infield, in play. The ball landed harmlessly in the outfield just beyond second base, where it was chased down by C.J. Cron, coming over from first base. Leon ended up with one of the strangest singles of the year. The description in the play-by-play captures it as such: "Sandy Leon singles on a sharp popup to first baseman C.J. Cron."

Daniel Palka
Thankful for: Big man triples
Hit probabilities: 1 percent, 5 percent
Palka is no speed burner. He was built to crush baseballs. But he managed three triples in his rookie season with the White Sox -- the same as speedy teammate Tim Anderson. And two of them he should be especially thankful for. The first, on April 29, came on a sunny day in Kansas City. Palka hit the ball so high (51-degree launch angle, with 6.3 seconds of hang time) that left fielder Alex Gordon lost it in the sun, and had it glance off his glove.

The second, on May 22 in Chicago, was a product of placement. Palka flared an 87.9 mph, 32-degree fly ball down the right-field line against the Orioles, and Mark Trumbo -- not exactly known for his defensive prowess -- couldn't chase it down. The ball glanced off his glove, too, and Palka ended up on third once again.

Aaron Judge
Thankful for: Short porches
Hit probability: 11 percent
This list wouldn't be complete without a Yankee Stadium special. This one came off the bat of Judge, who can crush monster home runs like few other players, but can also take advantage of the short right-field porch in the Bronx. On the Fourth of July, he provided the fireworks for the home crowd with an opposite-field homer off Braves left-hander Luiz Gohara. But this wasn't exactly a Judgian blast -- it was a 102.7 mph, 45-degree moonshot that just cleared the wall. It was the Yankees' highest home run of the season by launch angle.

Matt Carpenter and Yoenis Cespedes
Thankful for: Rivalry games
Hit probabilities: three percent, 11 percent
Carpenter and Cespedes brought some serious launch angle on July 20, hitting two of the highest home runs of the 2018 MLB season on the same day, but in different games. Carpenter took advantage of the Wrigley Field wind in the Cardinals' contest against the rival Cubs, hitting a 101.1 mph, 49-degree skyscraper that had a three percent hit probability, but somehow got over the fence. It was actually Carpenter's third homer of the day -- this was the game where he tied the MLB record with five extra-base hits. It's the highest home run a Cardinal has hit under Statcast™ tracking, and tied for the second-highest by any MLB player.

Meanwhile, in a Subway Series game between the Mets and Yankees in the Bronx, Cespedes hit a majestic blast of his own. It wasn't to the Yankee Stadium short porch, but to the left-field corner, off the foul pole. Cespedes' 104.3 mph, 47-degree home run was the Mets' highest of the year, but actually only their second-highest since Statcast™'s introduction, because Cespedes also hit a 48-degree homer on Sept. 7, 2015 (off Max Scherzer, no less).